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Disturbance southeast of Carolines may be next cyclone threat

Persistent models runs indicate the potential for development with Invest 98W, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Caroline Islands.  However, it’s important to start off with the following press release from PAGASA:

There were rumours circulating in social media platform like Facebook regarding a super typhoon that might affect the country this coming January 2018.  The current weather analysis shows that there is a possible formation of tropical cyclone this coming January 2018.  Based on historical records, it is normal for the month of January to have 0-1 tropical cyclone.  But, predicting the tropical cyclone intensity to reach super typhoon category for more than 1 week ahead has a very high uncertainty.  The atmosphere is very dynamic hence constant monitoring is necessary.
The general public is advised to be more careful, verify information and listen only to right authority so as not to cause panic.  Furthermore, everyone is advised to access only the official information from PAGASA thru our website or thru our official Facebook page
20171226 2200 98W VIS

Visible satellite imagery of 98W – 2200 UTC 26 December 2017, Courtesy NRL

To follow up that statement, Invest 98W is in a very weak state with a few cumulonimbus clouds.  Given its current status, long-term model projections must be used only with caution.  It’s hard for a model to reliably resolve a tropical cyclone days in the future when there is currently no low circulation to initiate from.  On the other hand, the potential for development cannot be altogether discounted as the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM, and JMA all show the low developing, potentially affecting the central or southern Philippines around the New Year.  At what intensity?  A super typhoon is likely ruled out.  Furthermore, the models have not been consistent on the strength at that time, ranging from a minor tropical depression to possible a severe tropical storm.  At this time, the best course of action is to continue monitoring and stay vigilant.

At this time, the chance for development remains low until the system begins to better organize.

Mike Adcock
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

Typhoon Tembin threatens the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam; heavy rain expected

Merry Christmas from the Western Pacific Weather team.

20171224 2140 33W IR

Infrared satellite of Typhoon Tembin – 2140 UTC 24 December 2017, Courtesy of NRL.

Typhoon Tembin continues to march across the South China Sea as skies become cloud-filled across the Mekong River Delta region of southern Vietnam.  Current forecast track takes the center of Tembin across Cà Mau province in far southern Vietnam.  Regardless of the exact location of where the center of Tembin makes landfall, the effects of the storm will be felt across much of the Mekong River Delta and Southeast Vietnam, to include Ho Chi Minh City.

Winds of 90 km/h with higher gusts will likely be relegated to coastal provinces of the Mekong River Delta region, especially near Cà Mau province, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall across southern Vietnam, far southern Cambodia, and Malay Peninsula of Thailand where 100-150 mm of rainfall is expected over the next few days with Tembin’s passage.  For Thailand, this rainfall comes on top of what recently fell as the remnants of Tropical Storm Kai-tak produced over the past couple days.

20171224 2100 33W Track

RSMC Tokyo’s forecast track and Storm-force Wind Warning from Vietnam – 2100 UTC 24 December 2017.

Meanwhile, recovery efforts are still underway across Mindanao.  The Philippine Star reporting at least 200 people have been killed with 144 remaining missing and 40,000 displaced across the southern region of the Philippines.  Reported totals from various news agencies do diverge, but not short of a tragic situation.  Search and rescue efforts by the military continue in villages hardest hit by flood waters and landslides.  We will continue to monitor these efforts.

Mike Adcock
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

Odette nears landfall over Northern Luzon

Good evening from the Western Pacific Weather team.

As we prepare to go into the overnight hours, the estimated center (based on Japan Meteorological Agency’s track) of Tropical Depression “Odette” is expected to make landfall sometime after midnight. Being a depression, there is a slight discrepancy as to where the actual center is located (PAGASA leaves the central point off of Luzon proper), and ultimately, the center of the system is not nearly as significant compared to the impacts that the system is already having in the area.


Tropical Depression Odette forecast track and Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals as of 2 pm Philippine Time, 12 October 2017.

Winds are estimated to be reaching 55 kph with gusts of more than 65 kph. The northern half of Luzon is currently under Signal 1 according to PAGASA. There is still a possibility of intensification into a tropical storm on Friday, but the main threats at this time are persistent rainfall with flash flooding resulting from the system along with sustained winds at tropical depression force.

Conditions will likely improve through the day Saturday, but throughout Thursday night through Friday night, “Odette” will still be in the region.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather