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Chanthu / Kiko Passes near Luzon and then in to Taiwan

Sunrise over Typhoon Chanthu / Kiko shows a beast of a storm off the coast of northeast Luzon. I know it looks spooky but the good news the forecast continues to pull the storm north. To close for comfort though with the outer rain bands though. I do think the outer eye wall will be close enough to cause problems for places like Santa Ana and Aparri in northern Luzon.

Then it’s all about the rainfall not only in the Philippines but also further north in to Taiwan and flooding rains along the east coast through Taipei is likely. Full video here.

Super Typhoon Chanthu / Kiko Nearing NE Luzon and in to Taiwan

#Chanthu / Kiko is still too close for comfort in to Luzon, it is expected to pass north of Cagayan but cone of error remains well over Cagayan. In fact I think the outer eye wall will likely move over Santa Ana and Aparri, so if you know anyone out there ensure they are getting ready for a typhoon.

On another note, inflow will wrap into the storm from the west behind it bringing rain all weekend down through Palawan, Manila and even Visayas. Then as the storm moves over Taiwan severe flooding is possible as we could see well over 500MM of rainfall.

TROPICS START TO TURN BACK ON

It’s been nearly a month since the last named storm system rolled through the western Pacific, that was Tropical Storm Omais and since then things have been calm. Now we have two areas, one is TD 17W SE of Japan and for the first time in a while though model guidance has been hinting at development near Guam and moving in to the Philippine Sea Next late next week. This is still very early but at least for the time being it is worth watch.

Key thing is at this time there is plenty of convection near Guam that could initialize a storm system. If anything was to develop it would run along the southern periphery of the west pac high anchored south east of Japan. Thus bringing it in to the Philippine Sea.

Thus the general direction of any development is semi confident. It’s all about the initializing though and is why at this time it’s worth watching.

Meanwhile there is another area near the Ogaswara islands right now, no worries on impacts with this but it is there.

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