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Tropics Remain April Like (April 20th )

The tropics remain calm this week following Tropical Depression Crising this past weekend that left 8 dead in Visayas and resulted in wide spread flooding across the central Philippines.

 

Now typical April weather is back and we are continuing to see the “Philippine summer” dominate the Philippines. Do note though the remnants of Crising can be seen swirling just north of Luzon this Thursday. It is doing little more than bringing breezy conditions and low lying clouds to the region though as it gets absorbed by a passing mid-latitude trough to the north.

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The start of the south west monsoon slowly working its way in to the Indo-china peninsula resulting in increasing afternoon thunderstorms for Thailand.

 

Tropical Forecast (Click here to see the JTWC Forecast Map)

 

JMA and JTWC both have no short range outlooks in the tropics while models keep things pretty limited as well. At least for now we can all relax and continue to enjoy this lull in the typically active western pacific basin.

 

 

 

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF MINDANAO / VISAYAS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER HOLIDAY WEEKEND

A big rain maker in the forecast for Visayas and eastern Mindanao over the coming days with up to 100mm of rain in coastal Leyte and Samar is very well likely with lesser amounts extending inland towards Cebu and Cagayan.

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This is all the result of a low pressure area that has gained an impressive amount of organization over the past 24hrs in the Philippine Sea. ( Commonly known as the Philippine Sea Effect ) Do not expect this TD to reach Tropical Storm Status but as we have seen in the past this far south in the Philippines even weak Tropical Depressions can cause problems. One of the deadlier storms in recent memory “Washi” was just a Tropical Storm when it came on shore but still it resulted in mass casualties across northern Mindanao. I am not saying this storm has that potential but just reminding you that these storms albeit small and now to strong can still pack a punch.

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Info From PAGASA as of early Friday Morning, check their Facebook here for latest information

 

YELLOW Warning Level: #DavaoOriental (Boston, Cateel, Baganga, Caraga), #SurigaodelSur (Bislig, Lingig), #AgusandelSur (Trento, SantaJosefa)
*FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low lying areas especially along river channels.

 

More info. will be posted later today. Stay safe everyone!

TROPICS START TO SHOW SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC

The tropics have been rather calm recently keeping our updates on the limited side over the course of the last few months.  That could change over the coming week though as things start to pick up in the western pacific with the waning of the North East Monsoon and the slow improvement of conditions conducive for tropical development in the western pacific.

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The most recent sign of development is “invest 92w” a blob at this time south of Guam. A few numerical models are calling for this area to become our next named Westpac storm later on this week. This includes the highly reliable in long range tropical predictions GFS model.   That model specifically is calling for a rather strong storm while the JMA, CMC and NAVGEM all indicate a low pressure area forming but barely reaching tropical storm intensity. (As of Monday Morning)

 

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GFS MODEL FOR SATURDAY EVENING (MONDAY MORNING RUN)

(Personal Thoughts)

 

The GFS is a good indicator on development or not in the long range. Do not take its forecast as the honest truth though as its long range intensity outlooks tend to range dramatically. With that said I think development of a storm is possible and the coast of Luzon should watch for the threat closely over the coming week.  At the very least we could be looking at a big rain maker in the Philippines and possibly Palau and Yap.

On the hand the storm could fizzle out and not much could occur if it runs in to a strong enough dry pocket over the next 24hrs. I do not think this is likely but it is possible.

 

Japan?

 

If and when the storm likely re-curves it would go extra-tropical quick while pulling north. This means heavy rain and high winds but a quick moving storm. At least from a climatic view point, which at this point is really what we have to use given we are looking at a long range forecast with limited initial information on the low.

 

For now relax and lets watch how it develops.