Advertisements
Archive by Author

DEVELOPING POSSIBLE NESAT TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE PHILIPPINES

Its another tropical extravaganza in the western pacific today with 3 named storm turning up the oceans and another one who is likely to develop near the Philippines.

This one near the Philippines is my biggest worry as far as human impact since it will be tracking north skirting the east coast of the island nation.  Any time we see this particular set up at this particular time of year we also see a phenomena called the enhanced monsoon or in the Philippines the “Habagat”.  When this happens we can expect days of rainfall across the country including the Metro area of Manila.

rainfall outlook

At this time this storm is expected to intensify and will likely be named “Nesat” by JMA once its sustained winds reach the 35kt threshold. At that point JMA and likely by then PAGASA will have a forecast track out on this storm likely heading north just off the Philippine east coast.  This would keep the center line east of the islands but as mentioned before the core of the storm including its track is not the biggest thing people should be looking at this one.

Philippines Sat

As it tracks north south westerly winds will increase off the south china sea, some areas through the latter part of the week could see up to 300-400mm of rains. This will increase the threat of flooding especially in Urban areas with poor drainage. A common problem in downtown Manila. Remember just a few years ago when a nearly the same set up occurred causing wide spread flooding in the Metro area. (Video below.)

Eventually Nesat also could be come problematic for Taiwan and the Southern Japanese islands, specifically Ishigaki-Jima.  I think at this time it should not be a full blown typhoon when it nears these areas but still it could be carrying with some damaging winds and of course heavy rainfall. Thus time to watch it if you are in any of the aforementioned areas.

Actually given the tropics across the Western Pacific are lighting up like a Summer Time Fireworks festival I would suggest  any one along a tropical coastline in the western pacific to have a wary eye out in the tropics.

Advertisements

TROPICS CRANK UP IN THE WESTPAC

The tropics are extremely active today with 8 storms scattered across the northern pacific, not only that but we also have the 2nd latest typhoon on record developing to the east of Japan.

In today’s video I break down everything taking place in the tropics west of the international date line, from the floods we are seeing in Vietnam to the Fujiwhara effect setting up near the Ogasawara islands of Japan.

Tropical Overview

THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC SHOWS SIGNS OF ACTIVITY IN JULY

It’s been an unusually calm 2017 Typhoon Season in the Western Pacific. Yes we have a had a handful of tropical depressions (named by PAGASA) and two official tropical storms “Muifia” and “Merbok” but we continue to lack any typhoons as of the end of June. For those who are not used to the Western Pacific and the typhoons associated with it this highly unusual, even more unusual that the Atlantic has seen more tropical storms than the WestPac as of this time. This is due to a few reasons but instead of getting in to more of what has been happening, lets looking ahead at the forecast because the calm weather is set to change in the near future.

Not to be a model caster but the first thing that did catch my attention this morning was the GFS and NAVGEM numerical models kicking out pretty interesting outputs including a Typhoon Near the Southern Japanese islands sometime between the 4th and 7th of July. The GFS specifically has hit this same result for several model runs which lends to more confidence that something is brewing in the forecast. The ECMWF and JMA models still are not jumping on anything just yet but they tend to be poor initializers on tropical systems in the western pacific based on past experience.

models

Putting the models aside just by glancing at a satellite picture you can see that there is all sorts of convection flaring up. Including a Invest that once was a TCFA via JTWC (97W). This area is worth watching for now, most models are not very supportive of it outside of the US Military’s COAMPS and it will be moving closer to the rainy season front soon which should disrupt its convection.

Sat Upate

Elsewhere we see a tropical wave over the Philippines and another back towards Chuuk in Micronesia. But heading in to next week a proverbial match will be lit as the MJO is expected to move in to the Western Pacific increasing atmospheric instability and thus the threat of the development of tropical systems. This matches up with fairly well with the aforementioned numerical models looking to developing a storm in to next week.

MJO

MJO OUTLOOK, NOTE INCREASE IN THE NEXT 1-5 DAYS OVER THE WESTPAC

The Final Point?

All of that jargon means in short that things are getting more interesting in the near future across the tropics, for weather forecasters (like myself) it is time to start to refresh those tropical forecasting skills and prepare ways of presenting the information. For the general person getting those emergency supplies ready in the event of a typhoon is always a smart idea. Even if you are not impacted in the upcoming week having the proper gear and plan in place in case of a incoming storm is always a good idea.

nihongo