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Western Pacific Tropical Update, 05 December 2021

For my tropical westpac friends no named storms out there today but there is a weak tropical wave formed up along the leading edge of the NE Monsoon off the coast of Visayas. This will bring some decent rainfall over the next few days along the east coast there with a few areas seeing well over 100mm over the next 5 days. Meanwhile, the long-range looks calm, there are some phantom storms being pushed by the GFS into next week but nothing to worry about for now.

New Storm developing in the Philippine Sea

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is now warning on the Tropical Depression near Guam. A high surf advisory is in place for the entire Mariana islands as well as scattered showers here into Tuesday. Despite the track showing a turn to the northeast the JTWC discussion does state pretty clearly that there is low confidence in the extended outlook and there is some split in the model guidance on if the storm will quickly turn north, stall out or linger and move west. The bulk of the guidance still turns it north and east with that said and thus it is reflected on the JTWC track. If this storm is named it will be called Nyatoh by JMA and Odette by PAGASA.

Western Pacific Tropical Update November 28th.

The tropics are starting to heat up yet again in the western pacific, after a month-long break during a time we would at least see one or two named storms.

In today’s update, we take a look at a new invest area spinning up near Guam.

Philippine Tropical Outlook, LPA, and the Shear line

The LPA east of the Philippines is still looking more and more organized today, good news once it hits that shear line expect it to be torn apart into the weekend. Still expect heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms from Visayas then tracking north into next week bringing rain as well into Central Luzon. Still some time to see exactly how much but I think it could be heavy at times. I’ll have a new video coming up soon on this.