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Spring Weather Moves In – Daily Weather Brief February 20th

Spring is in the air today, in the north a classic spring storm rolls across Japan, the rainy season front is showing early signs of development in China and in the tropics the North East Monsoon albeit still present is starting to wane.

North

Japan is once again feeling the effects of a classic spring time storm to start off the week. This low has the support of a deep short wave trough tracking out of North East China along with a rather potent upper level jet, actually JMA anlaysis indicates a Jet Max around 140kts at 300hpa. In short lots of energy aloft to fuel a deepening low pressure area.

 

This is why winds across the Pacific coastline of Japan are expected to reach 120kph through Monday with coastal areas in Tokyo including Haneda forecasting wind gust up to 90kph. (Below is a TAF , Terminal Aerodome Forecast from Haneda)

wind

Haneda TAF

Thus expect delays if flying around Japan today, heavy rain along with the occasional thunderstorm also accompany the cold front moving over the country.  Behind the front strong North West winds will blow in from Siberia kicking off a classic winter weather pattern over Japan adding more snow on top of the high snow pack already in place. Even after the recent warm up parts of Western Japan are actually still over 200% above their average snow pack.

Back to the west over Korea and North East China things are cool but dry. Dry air advisories are in place for most of South Korea today following the cold front early Monday morning.

seoul

Seoul Forecast

Central

Right now things are looking pretty calm across Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands and south east China.  That will change though through mid week as the next area of low pressure develops along the Yangzi river basin kicking up wide spread showers through the region.

As we head in to March the early signs of the rainy season front will begin to show.  So enjoy the reprieve from the rains at least for now through this area.

South

The average high during the month of February in the Philippines is about 31C. The last few days though its been closer to 27-28 with lows in to the teens. This in other locations seems like nothing but in a area where heaters are pretty much non-existent it can have a big impact. Especially for places in Northern Luzon like Baguio City where the forecast low is expected to be around 10C.

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For southern areas of the country heavy rain warnings have been issued today via PAGASA due to a surface trough of low pressure extending across the southern extend of the North East Monsoon. According to the GFS model up to 50mm is likely across the east coast of Mindanao due to the troughing.

fcst

Rainfall Forecast

Vietnam and Thailand are in the same situation, north east winds are waning leaving relatively calm conditions overall in the area.

Tropics

Nothing to report captain, things are calm across the tropics outside of a few scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms over islands due to day time heating.

Right now no invest areas are in place and none are expected to be over the coming days.

guam

Guam Forecast

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Philippines Hit With Cool Air in North, Heavy Rains i

A complex weather setup continues to dominate the Philippines today due to a combination of factors. For starters a tropical trough is lingering over Mindanao bringing heavy rain to the southern Island of the Philippines.

front

Synoptic Setup

Fueling up this trough is cool air aloft due to a cold surge that has been bringing the coldest air of the season to the Northern Philippines this past week. There has even been reports of frost in the rural foothills of northern Luzon. 

Good news this foul weather pattern should end through the weekend with temperatures across Luzon getting back to normal and the trough in the south tapering off.

 

 

Daily Weather Brief – February 14th

It’s the 14th of February and that means Valentines day is here so be sure to enjoy this relatively calm weather day across the western pacific and spend some time out doors with that special someone.

 

Do note I mention a relatively calm weather day, that means there are still a few areas of interest out there we can talk about today.

 

North

 

The worst weather in North East Asia is along the sea of Japan coastline where sea effect snow continues to drop me accumulations in a area that has already been battered with record snowfall over the past 5 days. In Tottori prefecture snow depth totals have climbed to well above average numbers with some areas hitting well over a meter of snow on the ground with average snow depths are only a few centimeters.

 

This of course has resulted in wide spread problems for the area, with all schools in Tottori being shut down to start off the week, along with wide spread travel delays.

 

A upper level low is moving over western Japan today and could add another 20-30cm of snowfall to the region. Meanwhile in Tokyo some energy could make its way over the mountains bringing a few flurries and some blustery conditions to the metro area. Not enough to cause problems but still noticeable.  Good news for those who do not like the cold is that southerly winds will work their way in to east Asia from Taiwan through Japan heading in to the weekend. That means warming temperatures to well above average marks at least for a short period of time from Friday in to Saturday.

tokyo

High pressure is dominating north east china, creating another day of haze and smog in the region.  The US Embassy in Beijing as of Tuesday morning is reporting a “unhealthy AQI”.  The worst though is to the south east of China’s capital where indices are in the hazardous level. http://aqicn.org/city/beijing/

 

Central

 

South Eastern China and Taiwan is fairly calm today, temperatures are in the teens to low twenties with partly cloudy skies dominating. The big topic is later this week when southerly winds kick in and push temperatures up to spring/summer levels in the region. For now though I suggest enjoying the calm weather in this region as the rainy season front will be setting up soon ushering in the flood season for South East China.

hong-kong

South

 

Its all about that north east monsoon.  Winds could be gusting up to 40-50kph along coastal areas of Vietnam and south through Thailand but as far as any organized thunderstorms or tropical activity there is none to really speak of.

 

The north east monsoon is bringing slightly “cooler” temperatures in the Philippines with Manila’s high hitting 28C. That’s about as cold as it gets for a high temperatures for that city.

Meanwhile other parts of the Philippines along the East coast of Luzon are under gale and high wave warnings up to 3-4 meters.

view

Tropical IR SAT

Tropics

 

A little blob is lingering east of the Philippines today, this could eventually increase rainfall by the end of the week for the southern Philippines, nothing to extreme though or really out of the usual for this time of year.

 

Elsewhere the Westpac high is dominating. For those in Guam and the Mariana islands expect a typical warm day in the tropics with the threat of isolated afternoon showers.