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Tropical Storm Warnings In Place For Guam ( Kammuri Update)

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Guam and the Mariana islands today with the formation of a new tropical system south east of Guam. The storm is expected to pass south of Guam Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning bringing winds up to 45 to 50 knots according to the Guam NWS.

Their latest warning can be found here.

if you want decent weather reports from the South East of Guam check Jeffs Pirate cove.

The highest winds will be along the eastern half of the island of Guam. This is less populated and is built for typhoons while the eastern half of the island should be relatively sheltered by the hills in the middle. Tourist visiting though may have a rough go of it for a day.

The forecast beyond Guam is still uncertain though, there is a high chance of a typhoon intensity storm system this week in the Philippine sea but where it goes is up for debate. A passing trough out of Japan could pull it north it the overall steering flow breaks down. If the storm does not have enough pull though it will set back up under the influence of a incoming cold surge behind the trough pushing it back west towards the Philippines. This is why the extended forecast remains low confidence with this storm. Once it passes Guam and the trough sets up on it the confidence in the forecast will increase dramatically.

New Tropical Threat Developing in the Western Pacific

A new tropical system has named a TD by JMA south east of Guam. This can be seen on the map below. This area is expected to wrap up an intensify likely in to named storm over the next 72hrs near Guam and the Mariana islands. The interaction with the low and the Westpac high should actually create some rather windy conditions across Guam and Saipan from Tuesday through Wednesday with heavy showers at times as well. Check the Guam NWS for latest on warnings for the island chain.

BUT there are still a lot of questions to be had here in the long range. There is a divergence in the long range guidance with some of the numerical outputs taking the storm north and out to sea staying south of Japan while others hold the westpac high in place pushing the storm east in to the Philippines. At this time the long range forecast beyond the next 72hrs is very uncertain.

I take six minutes in this video to break down what is the steering flow, what the models are showing and what your take away should be at this time.

https://youtu.be/0uU69AqW79o

Thus those from Okinawa, to Taiwan to the Philippines should keep an eye out in the tropics but that is about it at this time. *IMPORTANT NOTE* Remember what happened with ”Sarah” and how there were social media post saying it would be a big typhoon in the central Philippines And then nothing of the sort took place. Keep that in mind when sharing information on social media on these storms. Even when you are reading my post I always suggest checking a second source and of course with JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Very Early Look Invest 94W (23rd of August 2019)

Here is a very early look at invest 94W way out in the Marshal islands and still an un-organized area of cloud cover. None the less it is in an area of favorable development and model guidance from ECMWF, GFS and CMC has been persistent on developing a storm system in the Philippine sea this upcoming week. With that said I scoped out where a storm could possible go here based on the current atmospheric setup in place. That being the Westpac High located north of Guam, the monsoonal trough pushing in out of China and the general background easterlies in the tropics.

Thus those from Okinawa, to Taiwan to the Philippines should keep an eye out in the tropics but that is about it at this time. *IMPORTANT NOTE* Remember what happened with ”Sarah” and how there were social media post saying it would be a big typhoon in the central Philippines And then nothing of the sort took place. Keep that in mind when sharing information on social media on these storms. Even when you are reading my post I always suggest checking a second source and of course with JMA, JTWC and PAGASA.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert