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Typhoon Maysak (Chedeng) Afternoon Video Update | April 2, 2015

Typhoon Maysak (locally known as Bagyong Chedeng in the Philippines) continues to weaken as it heads towards the island of Luzon. The eye of Maysak was last located approximately 1,350km east southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds according to JMA are at 175kph with gusts of up to 250kph. JTWC is keeping Maysak at Category 4 intensity with sustained winds of up to 215kph and gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Maysak has slowed down since yesterday and is currently moving west northwestward at a speed of 15kph.

Increasing wind shear and the presence of dry air will continue to induce weakening for Maysak in the next 2 to 3 days. Intensity forecasts have gone down and are expecting Maysak to be a minimal-typhoon or even a tropical storm before it makes landfall in the Aurora-Isabela area by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time).

IR Image from NRLMRY

040215 0501z ir analysis b

Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Maysak and Invest 99W. The latter possibly becoming our next Tropical Cyclone. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 99W. Computer model forecasts show a weak tropical storm possibly moving near the Mariana Islands this weekend.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth discussion and forecast analysis for Typhoon Maysak.

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDjD2EaJ_Gc”%5D

Continue to keep updated on the progress of this system, especially if you reside in Northern Luzon. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Maysak (Chedeng) Noon Video Update | April 1, 2015

Please watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for more in-depth discussion on the latest information on Typhoon Maysak as well as its forecast track and intensity:

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN3iQX6aHYg”%5D

Super Typhoon Maysak continues to move away from the State of Yap on its way towards the Philippines. The eye of Maysak was last located approximately 200km northwest of Yap or about 1,280km east of Borongan in the province of Eastern Samar in the Philippines. Latest wind analysis from JMA puts the maximum sustained wins at 195kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Meanwhile, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has maximum sustained winds of 260kph and gusts reaching 315kph. Maysak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

040115 0401z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Maysak remains perfectly circular and symmetrical. Maysak underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight as it moved near the island of Yap. Winds of up to 100kph were recorded in the island of Yap. However, the small atolls of Ulithi and Fais were hit hard as the eye of Maysak moved right through the area late last night. We’re still awaiting reports from that region and we’ll update accordingly once we get more information.

But all eyes are now turned towards the Philippines as Maysak is forecast to make landfall in Northern Luzon by early Sunday morning. Residents in the region should start planning preparations and coordinate with local officials and PAGASA for the latest warnings and official weather bulletins.

Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Maysak Noon Video Update | March 31, 2015

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for in-depth information on Maysak’s impending impacts across the State of Yap. We also discuss where the typhoon will possible head next in the next few days:

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOqunWsKAl8″%5D

Typhoon Maysak continues to move ever closer to the State of Yap today. The eye of Maysak was last located approximately 380km east northeast of the island of Yap. Latest analysis from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows increased maximum sustained winds of up to 175kph and gusts of up to 250kph. These winds are significantly lower than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s analysis with sustained winds of up to 230kph and gusts of up to 280kph. Using JTWC’s wind estimates would put Maysak at Category 4 Typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

IR Image from NRLMRY

033115 0332z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows Maysak with its symmetrical and cloud-free eye surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Radial outflow remains excellent as well and feeder bands continue to enhance Maysak’s intensity. Short-term forecasts suggest that Maysak may reach a peak intensity of Category 5 Super Typhoon later this evening, just as it moves near the island of Yap.

Forecast from the National Weather Service in Guam

maysak nws guam forecast

Right now, the National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Yap and nearby atolls of Ulithi and Fais. The latter two atolls are forecast to begin experiencing life-threatening winds of up to 200kph later this afternoon. Meanwhile, the main island of Yap (home to more than 11,000 people) is forecast to miss the strongest winds in Maysak’s core. However, typhoon-force gusts of up to 75mph (120kph) are still possible throughout the evening hours. Aside from the strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and wave heights of up to 25feet are also likely along the shore. Weather conditions will remain very dangerous through the early morning hours tomorrow (Wednesday).

For the latest warnings and forecasts from the National Weather Service in Guam, please click HERE

After Yap, Maysak is forecast to move into the Philippine Sea and will be assigned the local name ‘Bagyong Chedeng’ by PAGASA once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility. While the chances of a Philippine landfall is becoming more likely, Maysak is forecast weaken before it reaches the islands. Right now, the consensus is showing a possible landfall in Northern Luzon by early morning on Easter Sunday. Depending on the rate of weakening, it is possible that Maysak will still attain its strong typhoon-intensity before making landfall this weekend.

We’ll continue to have the latest information on the progress of Maysak. For readers in Yap, please heed the warnings of your local officials and should be in sturdy shelters away from the shore at this time. Stay safe!