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Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) moves near Southern Luzon | Morning Update

Typhoon Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) is now moving near the province of Quezon and the island of Marinduque. Hagupit is now barely a typhoon as it continues to weaken. However, Hagupit is still very much a strong and dangerous cyclone and should not be underestimated. Sustained winds near the center are still at 120kph with gusts that may reach up to 175kph according to the latest JMA Warning. Heavy rains continue to pound the region as well.

IR Image from NOAA

120714 2101z ir analysis

PAGASA has placed the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) under Public Storm Warning Signal #2 today and the National Government has suspended classes in all levels and government offices in the region due to the approaching typhoon. Dozens of flights have been canceled as well and nearly 500 people are stranded in Batangas Port as all sea travel in the region has been suspended. Unfortunately, 2 people have been confirmed dead due to Typhoon Hagupit; both in the island of Iloilo. Dangerously stormy conditions will persist across Southern Luzon and nearby provinces throughout the day today.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for in-depth analysis and forecasts regarding Typhoon Hagupit

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We’ll continue to have updates so please keep it right here at Western Pacific Weather. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Afternoon Video Update December 4, 2014

Hagupit (Bagyong Ruby) has rapidly intensified today into a powerful Category 5 Super Typhoon (based on JTWC 1-min scale). It continues to move quickly across the Philippine Sea and is threatening parts of Visayas this weekend. Unfortunately, we are still seeing variations in the computer model outputs and there is still great uncertainty as to the exact track of this powerful typhoon.

IR Image from NOAA

1204 0801z ir analysis

WxCaster PAT’ Video Update below discusses the differences in the computer runs. We also discuss the different forecasts from agencies in the region particularly with JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA.

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Based on the official forecast tracks, Hagupit could threaten parts of Visayas beginning Saturday as a powerful typhoon. The Philippine Government has already started to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Likewise, we urge everyone living in the region to start preparing now. Follow the official bulletins and instructions from your local officials.

We’ll continue to monitor and update the progress of Hagupit. Stay safe!

Typhoon Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) Noon Update October 9, 2014

Typhoon Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) remains a very strong cyclone as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea. The Japan Meteorological Agency maintains the estimated sustained winds at around 215kph with gusts of up to 305kph. THe Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meanwhile, has lowered their wind estimates but maintains Vongfong as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye of Vongfong was last located approximately 800km south southeast of Okinawa or about 830km east southeast of Basco, Batanes. It is currently moving northwestward at 10kph.

Please watch WxCaster PAT’s in-depth Video Update below for more information and analysis on Vongfong.

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What we do want to emphasize with this update is that computer models and official agencies continue to shift their track westward. The latest consensus this morning is taking Vongfong very near the Ryukyu Islands by Saturday and Sunday. The possibilities are increasing for Okinawa to see Typhoon-force conditions around this time frame.

Forecast Track from JMA

vongfong jma track 2

Aside from strong and damaging winds, there is also the threat of very high waves especially along the east-facing shores of the islands. Wave heights of up to 5 meters are possible and could very well be life-threatening. We certainly don’t suggest anyone to be lingering near the coast as Typhoon Vongfong moves through.

Aside from the Ryukyu Islands, Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu will also get their share of Vongfong’s impacts. Heavy rains and strong winds will move northeastward towards Mainland Japan beginning Monday and into Tuesday.

We’ll continue to keep you posted with Typhoon Vongfong. We urge everyone living the islands to please start making initial preparations for this typhoon. Stay safe everyone!

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Noon Update | October 8, 2014

Vongfong has maintained its Category 5 Super Typhoon strength as it moves across the Philippine Sea (please note JMA does not use the designation “Super Typhoon”, only the JTWC does). It was last located approximately 980km south southeast from the island of Okinawa. Latest wind estimates from JMA (JTWC) for Vongfong are at 215kph (285kph) sustained with gusts of up to 305kph (350kph). Vongfong is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video for more information on this typhoon and where it is headed.

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Latest track from JMA shows a northward turn that should happen anytime today. It also looks like that Vongfong has reached its peak and should slowly begin to weaken by tomorrow. Nevertheless, Vongfong is still posing a serious threat to the Japanese Islands. The Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, are still in play to see typhoon-force winds this weekend. The consensus among the forecasts may still bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high winds across Okinawa. Amami-Oshima may see even higher winds as the center of Vongfong is forecast to move just east of there.

JMA 00z Forecast Track for Typhoon Vongfong

vongfong jma track

By Sunday and into Monday, Vongfong is forecast to head towards the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku and possibly maintaining a strong typhoon intensity. Heavy rains, damaging winds, and high waves will move towards that area beginning Sunday evening and into Monday.

For our readers and viewers in Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, please start making preparations now. Any slight shift in the typhoon’s track will result in substantial changes in the impacts down the road (as they say hope for the best but prepare for the worst). And as always, heed the warnings of your local official weather agency. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT