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Tropical Storm Koguma moving on shore in to Northern Vietnam.

Tropical Storm Koguma has now labeled by JMA the 4th named storm of 2021 in the western pacific. This area is more or less a large mass of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Tonkin moving on shore into Northern Vietnam. The biggest issue is heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides in N. Vietnam and Laos. Some locations could see over 200mm of total rains in Northern Vietnam and Laos which naturally could lead to some serious flooding and landslides. The storm’s backside is also pulling moisture across the Philippines today, and long-range outlooks indicate a sub-tropical low developing near Okinawa.

IMPACTS

1) Hainan, a popular tourist spot in China is not going to have beautiful weather this weekend. Expect heavy showers all weekend into early next week.

2) Northern Vietnam including Hanoi. The warm water over the Gulf of Tonkin often surprises us as they tend to help spin things up quickly So should be watched as well. Northern Vietnam could see some pockets of rainfall over 200mm in total.

3) Laos is also seeing heavy rainfall from Koguma, here flooding and landslides are possible.

MONSOON AND MONSOONAL LOW DOMINATES SE ASIA

TJMA has labeled the monsoonal low south of China a Tropical Depression today. If it is upgraded to a Tropical Storm it will be called Koguma. The storm right now is somewhat consolidating and will move onshore over Hainan into Saturday emerging into the Gulf of Tonkin where it could consolidate again and intensify before moving onshore in northern Vietnam.

Regardless if this developing monsoonal low is named or not it’s going to be a decent rainmaker.

1)In the Philippines. Onshore flow around the low will bring breezy conditions and choppy seas from Palawan to Northern Luzon along the coast. A few coastal areas could see up to 100mm of rainfall through the weekend with local flooding.

2) Hainan, a popular tourist spot in China is not going to have beautiful weather this weekend. Expect heavy showers all weekend into early next week.

3) Northern Vietnam including Hanoi. The warm water over the Gulf of Tonkin often surprises us as they tend to help spin things up quickly So should be watched as well.

For now the the storm continues to slowly develop. Meanwhile another low is spinning north of Guam today and could bring some increase showers in the Marianas islands.

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KNOW YOUR WARNINGS! Comparing Tropical Warnings in the Western Pacific

There are a varitey of countries across the western pacific with a slew of different way agencies warn and advise on tropical systems. That is putting aside the ways they actually label and warn said systems as well.

Here is a look at some of the comparisons between those agencies to help you better prepare for the storms in the future.

In the Philippines SIGNAL force warnings are issued during an approaching typhoon.

In Japan a combination of warnings, advisories and evacuations are issued during a typhoon. It’s important to know the differences.

Hong Kong issues their own warnings called Signal Force warnings. Signal Force 8 is typically the point where preparations are really made in the city. These warnings are separate than those issued on mainland China.

Taiwan also issues their own warnings, these basically give a heads up a typhoon is approaching.

Indonesia does not get very my typhoons or cyclones but they are still possible there.

Personally I (ROBERT SPETA) like the warnings from South Korea, they break down typhoon warning and advisories and get specific on what impacts will be made.

If you are familiar with warnings out of the USA and how they advise on storms then Guam and the Marianas islands are for you. The Guam NWS issues this morning and thus uses the same format as it’s counterparts on mainland USA.

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What is the official warnings agency, locally its the country the storm is impacting but as far as official records on the storm itself it’s JMA in the western pacific. Yet that continues to remain up for debate explained in this video.

Monsoonal Low Developing This Week

There is an increasing chance of tropical development west of the Philippines this week into the weekend. Most signs point towards a monsoonal gyre of sorts but there is still plenty of time to watch it. The very least an increase in rainfall from Luzon to Hainan to Northern Vietnam is in the forecast.

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