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Long Range Tropical Outlook

Check this out, #Surigae / #Bising was a Cat. 5 storm way out of season, even for the western pacific. When you get something that unusual it sometimes can change the overall weather pattern to act a little “unusual” . This is the case this week with cool north winds flowing out of China and in to the Philippines in a almost winter like setup. With that is dry air as well as wind shear. All things not conducive for tropical development. Thus despite some models hinting at long range development I’m really not worried.

Surigae / Bising also stirred up the ocean creating cooler sea surface temperatures off the coast of the Philippines.

Typhoon Bising / Surigae Lashes the East Coast of the Philippines

Over 300mm of rainfall in the past 24hrs across parts of Samar has been reported causing flooding in the region. Typhoon Bising / Surigae continues to slowly meander north resulting in a lashing along the islands of Samar and Catanduanes. Signal Force Warnings have also been extended well northward in to North East Luzon today. Check links below for source data for this video.

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Super Typhoon Surigae / Bising

Typhoon Surigae known as Bising in the Philippines continued to strengthen today maxing out with winds at Category 5 intensity. Not a common occurrence this time of year but not unheard of. Just 5 years ago Typhoon Maysak was a Super Typhoon in the Philippine Sea in late March. The storms track continues to pull north and will likely stay off shore of the Philippines but close enough to still cause problems with the outer rain bands.

At this time the official track does keep the storm east of the Philippines but close enough where it still can create problems including scattered showers and gusty winds on the east coast due to the outer rain bands as well as large waves.

Based on the latest forecast the east coast of Samar through South East Luzon will see Tropical Storm Strength conditions from Saturday – Monday. For those in the area they should be at least be making preparations including having a plan in place in case an evacuation is needed.

With that said the Philippines does remain in the “cone of error” which means there is still a chance this storm could waver just a bit further west which would create a major difference in the overall impacts from the storm.

LATEST TRACK FROM JTWC

IR SAT

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Developing Tropical Depression near Yap

I can’t stress this enough in this update. I have more questions than answers in making this forecast. I been doing westpac storms for over a decade and this is one of the more difficult ones. Right now the video is for informational purposes to get an idea of whats going on and to know what could happen. Waiting for more information from the official agencies though.

Please check out the video discussing the latest forecast on this developing Tropical Depression.