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Westpacwx Tropical Outlook

Chaba and Aere are waning in the western pacific today but it’s July and things are just not about to chill just yet. Another tropical wave east of the Philippines is set to bring more rain through mid-week across the Philippines. Then possibly form after passing the country. And another low in the long-range is being picked up by the GFS east of the country into next week on top of that. In short, still, a few areas to watch out there. I’ll have a new video on this later today.

Tropical Storm Aere / Domeng nearing Okinawa

A storm watch is in place in Okinawa as Tropical Storm Aere nears landfall Saturday. The last time we had a named storm over the island of Choi-wan in 2021. Here is a look at this storm and what some of the impacts will be.

Be smart during the storm, that is the key thing. We joke about a “trampoline watch” being put in place but of course that means tie everything down and prepare for a storm today.

Tropics heating up in the western pacific

Several tropical areas in the western pacific today. Both invest 97 and 98w forming a large monsoonal gyre. As always in this update, I discuss what you can expect.

The 4th of July weekend COULD bit a bit messy thanks to a tropical low to the south of Okinawa as well. The key thing is this is not developed yet but based on current guidance we could be looking at some nasty weather from Saturday into Sunday. In short maybe instead of making a mad dash to the NEX for extra beer, you should double-check those standard typhoon supplies we should have all typhoon season.

June out like a Lamb, July in like a Lion?

All remains calm in the Tropical Western Pacific today. But all good things must come to an end though. I believe based on data I’m seeing now June will go out like a lamb but July will kick in like a lion. Long-range climate models and ensemble guidance continues to show increased activity in the first and second week of July. THIS DOES NOT MEAN I know if a typhoon will hit your home. Just means this calm pattern we are in now will be coming to an end soon enough.