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Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy Nearing Landfall

Kammuri or locally known as Tisoy has slowly attempted to gain strength today but still remains a somewhat disorganized cluster of storms. Prior to landfall though it does still look like a Cat 1 or Two at landfall with the threat of Storm Surge and heavy rains. Some areas as much as 2 ft or about 600mm. This may not be a “Haiyan” type setup since it’s not a super typhoon by any means but, it still is going to be a dangerous storm for some. Here are my latest thoughts.

Be sure to check PAGASA for the latest updates on the warnings.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 130kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Typhoon Kammuri / Tisoy (30th November Update) Will impact Luzon Monday

The Philippines continue to prepare for what will likely be the strongest typhoon of the year for the tropical pacific country. Good news though today a blast of cool northerly winds sheared Kammuri (locally known as Tisoy) but this will only be short lived before the storm starts to make its turn west towards the Philippines.

In fact the latest forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the official agency of the Western Pacific shows winds up to 100 gusting 140kts with a pressure down to 925hpa. This would make for a potential damaging storm system across the highest populated regions of Bicol through Manila. This track is very similar to Glenda and Remming which both cause significant damage to Manila.

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JMA could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 140kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place on Tuesday. Places like Roxas BLVD that are known for flooding will likely flood.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.


Organizers at the South East Asian Games say they are prepared for the storms impacts. They did note some events could be delayed or cancelled while indoor events are expected to go on as normal. The games start November 30th and run through December 11th.


Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert

Typhoon Kammuri Likely to impact the SEA games and the Philippines

Typhoon Kammuri is starting to make a left hand turn west today towards the Philippines. Over the course of the weekend as it tracks through the Philippine sea it will move in to an area of favorable intensification allowing it to strengthen to a possible super typhoon before coming on shore in southern or central Luzon from Bicol through areas just east of Metro Manila. This of course means the SEA games could be impacted. They start on the 30th of November and through through early December in the Manila area and Clark City both in central Luzon.

Possible Impacts

Winds

A damaging wind threat of course exist with this storm. According to JTWC it could come on shore in southern to Central Luzon with winds gusting over 100kts. Yet with sea surface temperatures remaining over 30 degrees in the Philippine sea there is a potential of strengthening prior to landfall making winds even higher. Any structures along the coast not make of concrete could suffer wind damage.

Storm Surge

There are plenty of bays in inlets along the south east of coast of Luzon that could help trigger a funneling effect as Kammuri moves near the shore. If that takes place a significant storm surge may accompany Kammuri. Plus as winds shift from the west across Manila bay a coastal storm surge in the capitol may also take place.

Rainfall

As with any tropical system making landfall a lot of rain will come with it. The storm may slow down a bit after coming on shore which will result in high amounts of rain. According to latest GFS models upwards of 400-500mm is possible. That is enough to trigger local flooding and landslides.

Also remember you can follow me on

Twitter

Facebook

Instagram (RobertSpetaWX)

YouTube (Westpacwx)

Lastly for more information on me please check https://www.robertspeta.com

Furthermore I continue to job search in Japan. It’s home for me which is one reason why I continue to put these updates out, if you know of any weather positions open in the country please let me know! -Robert