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Slow-moving tropical depression to bring plenty of rain to Mindanao

Good evening from the Western Pacific Weather team.

While Kai-tak is continuing to move further away from the Philippines, a tropical depression east of the Philippines is heading its way toward Mindanao. The slow-moving system is currently drifting to the west. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to aid in the storm’s moisture potential, but there are still factors, including some wind shear, that’s preventing the system from intensifying for the moment.

Nevertheless, it is going to be a wet weekend for those in Mindanao. Some will see up to 250 mm of rain, and that could lead to flooding and landslides. Residents should prepare for a rough weekend and possibly through the first part of next week.

Other areas to the north of Mindanao are likely to not see any direct impact from the depression, but there is a chance that some of that rain may impact Visayas.

On a side note, Kai-tak will bring some significant rain into certain portions of southern Vietnam. Rain totals may hit up to 100 mm. Residents should be prepared as this storm, while not making landfall, could still run plenty of rain into the region.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171220 Satellite

Kai-tak drawing rain, while another low pressure approaches Mindanao

Good afternoon from the Western Pacific Weather team.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak (Urduja) continues to push to the west away from the Philippines, and while it is over the open waters, it is still impacting nearby areas of land. The system is helping to enhance the rain over Luzon. Some locations are still seeing high amounts of rainfall with little movement, leading to concerns of more flooding.

Meanwhile, those in Vietnam need to be on the lookout for rain over the next couple of days. Those on the southern coastline will likely see some rain into Wednesday, and some of the rain could be heavy. Therefore, those living in the region should be prepared to move further inland should that need arise.

Invest 97W is still simply a low pressure to the east of Mindanao. That being said, while the system is looking less likely to develop into something tropical, it is looking more likely that it will bring heavy rainfall into both Mindanao and Visayas as we head into Christmas weekend. Both the GFS and the Euro models are indicating the enhancement of moisture for the central and northern areas of the Philippines, while the southern areas will see the low pressure system passing over the region. It is becoming more likely that Mindanao will see a soaker of a storm for the weekend.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171219 Satellite

Kai-tak passing over Palawan, significant rain in southern Luzon

Good afternoon from the Western Pacific Weather team.

Tropical Storm Kai-tak (Urduja) is passing over Palawan in the western Philippines but is drawing significant moisture into southern Luzon. This is leading to significant rainfall, including flash flooding problems. The rain is training (moving along a single area) and will likely continue to lead to problems through the overnight period.

Meanwhile, the aftermath of the impact of Kai-tak is being seen in Samar as mudslides and flooding continue to be a major problem for the island. At least 26 people have died so far, and thousands of people are still stranded. Around 90,000 people have been evacuated due to the storm.

Kai-tak is having a hard time staying together, and so it is expected to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week.

There have been questions regarding 97W, and there is the potential that this might develop according to some of the computer models. However, there is enough resistance in the form of wind shear to where the system may struggle to truly develop. If the pattern of Kai-tak’s lack of development is any indication, 97W would probably have a bit of a difficult time developing. We will have to monitor this as we go through the week.

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather

20171218 06 UTC

Rain wrapping up for Philippines, Kai-tak still tropical storm

Good afternoon from the Western Pacific Weather team.

After days of drenching rainfall in the central Philippines, it seems like the rainfall from Tropical Storm Kai-tak (Urduja) is starting to come to an end. TRMM from NASA reports close to 900 mm of rainfall over the past week.

20171217 TRMM Graphic.png

The center of the storm is still passing through the center of Visayas, but it seems like the main issue is the stiff breeze (or crazy winds – depending on where you are) in the area. The storm will continue to make its way through the Philippines and exit the country by mid-week. Most of the clouds are west of the center of circulation, which will force most of the precipitation away from the region.

20171217 Sunday 06 UTC Track.png

Jonathan Oh
Meteorologist, Western Pacific Weather