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BREAKING: 29 Apr 2012 Tropical Update on Developing Tropical Low 97W Off Southeastern Mindanao

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Invest 97W Sprung To Life, Torrential Rainfall Threatens Eastern Mindanao

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post at http://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5)  to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."


Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,” should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mm rainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,” that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

The Dawn Of A New Beginning: NHK World’s Newest Resident Meteorologist Robert Speta Debuts

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Meteoric Leap, Empowering More People Across Asia Pacific, World

Iloilo City, Philippines, 09April 2012, (1430Z)–Long before I was entrusted this humbling experience of being an author here on Westernpacificweather.com, I have been amazed with the way Meteorologist Robert Speta was doing his Tropical Updates focusing more on Western Pacific Region for the last two (2) years.  There ain’t no other “American” guy you can find online that does these humbling stuffs and giving more emphasis on Asia’s weather but him.  His profound dedication and sheer honesty to his craft, and worth mentioning beyond his being accessibly friendly nature and blessed with the knowledge and proper training, there could be no doubt, he will do great wonders and an asset to NHK World’s sentinel of equally sensible and great team of forecasters we ought to see on television, heard on the radio and online.

Little did I know that Mr. Speta is a Broadcast and Operational Meteorologist rolled into one.  I could still remember his helpful video feeds from his website especially during times of great need like an approaching Typhoon about to affect my country, the Philippines back in 2011.

Additionally, he had seven (7) years of service with the United States Navy (USNavy), and now, he is engaged in anchoring the weather segment broadcast in Japan’s top-rating Newsline at NHK World Headquaters in Tokyo, effective today, 09 April 2012, Monday.

On 29 March 2012, I got an invite from Mr. Speta to join him in his vision of providing adequate information relative to what he loved of doing as a goal-oriented guy from Buffalo, New York in the USA.  Mr. Speta, where most of his friends call him, “Rob,” was no less like a young gun who wanted to make the world a safer, better place for the rest of us.

Mr. Speta, based on his career portfolio, is a seasoned, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Meteorologist, who loved to carry on his mission by educating more and more people about the working relationship between climatic variables and effective understanding of what weather will be in the coming days, or what could be the areas affected by a singularly important aspect of life most of us do not fully comprehend but does form part an integral thread of our way of living.  It was beyond one’s dreams that brought a throng of people line into a particular calling.

Challenges Ahead

Time could only be a constant determinant of what’s to come for I was about to embark into a new dimension, a beginning of what I do best–writing articles that could provide credible, comprehensive information on what’s been happening around us, giving more weight on the study of Climatic dynamism and tropical cyclogenesis which affects the Western Pacific since time immemorial.

I am no professional in the study of meteorology, but with Meteorologist Speta at the helm of this vessel, I know we will go farther and reach ever closer to more people that deserve nothing less but dependable and adequate ideas and workable truths in today’s relatively unstable and elaborately extreme weather.

A good friend, a brother in the Philippines, shared his wisdom, in the person of Michael Williams, Sr. said to me on this day,“I take anything I associate myself with very seriously.  It only takes ONE good screw up to ruin a reputation, thus in many times, it cannot be recovered.”

In the light of these development, I also would like to thank Mr. Speta for the trust and continued support on my works here on Westernpacificweather.com, and considering that this could be this generation’s best, by far, in the last eleven (11) days that I have been engaged in this job, we are largely being viewed back home in the Philippines and abroad, especially in Malaysia via team mate and admin for this site, a fellow author and contributor in the person of whiz kid Francis Chuah and my fellow “Kababayan,” Ian Patrick Malejana, now based in Long Island, New York, USA.  These are smart people, make no mistake, they will deliver the goods the way it should be–piping hot, in-depth analysis and no nonsense.

Here are some of today’s cut on tube in case you missed today’s broadcast.  Enjoy as we did this afternoon at around 1720PM-JST, 0920Z (0520PM-PHL) during his first broadcast LIVE on air at posh NHK World Studios in NHK HQ in Tokyo, Japan:

Fig. 1.0 "Live on NHK World Studios in Tokyo, Meteorologist Robert Speta made an entry about the blossoming Sakura trees in Kanto Region, as JMA has confirmed its full bloom two days ago. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

Fig. 2.0 "On this screen indicate a possible flood potential for the regions of Yellow Sea bordering Korean Peninsula, that could spawn thunderstorm activity that could adversely affect the scheduled Ballistic/Rocket launch by Pyongyang, NoKor on 12 April and 16 April 2012. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

In today’s weather forecast, discussed the likelihood of yet another wet and windy weather by late Tuesday, 10 April 2012 across Western edge of Southern Japan, explains further the areas to be hit by another “Spring Storm,” this week, and advised locales to bring weather implements as a sort of protection against the elements, pointing out the possible rains across Southern China, that could spill into Yellow Sea as a developing Trough of Low could yet again surge into Sea of Japan, though not as intense as last week that hit Japan.

Moving on to the other side of the Pacific Basin, he laments of the incoming moisture coming from a huge Trough of Low along the Northwestern regions of the United States, and a brewing severe storm off the Southern regions, where a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity and golf, tennis-ball sized hail pound the Mid-states of Oklahoma, possibly “Tornadic” activity in neighboring states as well into the next coming days and a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity which is not a good situation out there.

In Europe, across the Baltic Region, an area of Low is fast approaching the British Isles.  Spain, however was hit by record drought conditions. Rains across Barcelona, Spain could provide a respite from the excessive heat as a surging area of Low that could cause Polar air into the Baltic Seas, further plunging temperatures across Europe and wet and windy conditions in the coming days.  Portions of the Netherlands to the South, and Norway to the North could be expecting some wet and windy weather associated with the system.  Italy could be getting some pounding rains and gusty wind conditions as an area of Low also lingers a bit off greater Italy and the Mediterranean countrysides.  Some thundery showers are also in the forecast.
To give you guys a gist of what’s to come, I give you Robert Speta, a fulfilled meteorologist ready to take on the world’s challenges!

Join us as we take the center stage using the most credible insights!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)