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Results of the WPACWX 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Seasons predictions

2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions

** THE RESULTS **

Earlier last year, the team at WesternPacificWeather.com put our heads together and came up with our outlooks on the 2016 season. At that time things were very quiet, and we were bored while we waited on the first storm to form. Well, it did, as did many others, and it turned out to be a pretty active year in the WPAC, but still about average. Here’s how we did on our predictions!

Overall, most of us saw a “less-than-typical” year shaping up as we headed into the season, due in large part to the relaxation of the Strong El Nino event of 2015, and hints of a developing La Nina ahead. The La Nina did not quite develop to the levels that were expected, which lent a hand into keeping the tropical weather numbers near climatological norms.

Let’s see how the guys broke down the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season… 

 

Team member

TS

TY

STY

Accur. Rate (%)*

Meteorologist Robert Speta

25 (-1)

16 (+3)

6 (0)

96/81/100-   92.3%
Meteorologist Mike Adcock

24 (-2)

11 (-2)

3 (-3)

92/84/50-     75.3%
Weathercaster Patrick Malejana

22 (-4)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

84/92/67-     81.0%
Weathercaster Michael Williams

21 (-5)

10 (-3)

4 (-2)

80/77/67-     74.6%
Climatological Average

26

16

9

100/81/67- 82.6%
WPACWX.com average

23 (-3)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

88/92/67-   82.3%
Actual 2016 Totals (unofficial)

26

13

6

***************

 

* Denotes departure from actual totals

The accuracy rate is quite unscientific, simply averaging out the prediction/actual average for each prediction category (TS, TY, STY) regardless of direction, and then averaging out the totals.

The results…

Meteorologist Robert Speta was our most accurate prognosticator, with an average accuracy rate of 92.3% overall. He was only -1 on his prediction for the tropical storm outlook, was a bit higher at +3 on his view of typhoon formation potential, and was dead-on with his call for 6 super typhoons on the year.

Weathercaster Patrick Malejana was next best in average accuracy with a rate of 81.0%. He underestimated the general level of activity of the season, with the tropical storm outlook missed by -4, but made up ground by only being -1 on typhoon formation potential, and -2 on super typhoon expectations.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock was next with an average accuracy rating of 75.3%. Mike’s also underestimated the activity level of the season in general, as his overall outlook trended lower than the actual figures, with his tropical storm outlook at -2, typhoon formation potential at -2, and super typhoon expectations at -3.

Finally, Weather caster Michael Williams finished last in the group with an average accuracy rate of 74.6%. Michael also underestimated the overall level of the 2016 season, missing the tropical storm outlook by -5, typhoon formation potential by -3, and super typhoon expectations at -2.

Overall, the WPACWX.com team finished with an overall average of 82.3%, with a general underestimation of the level of 2016 tropical cyclone activity. We missed the tropical storm outlook by -3, the typhoon potential by -2, and the super typhoon expectations by -1.

Thus ends the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season, and overall, we think we did pretty well. Congratulations to our Robert Speta, and stay tuned, because our outlook for the 2017 season will be here before you know it!

Here’s a little bit about each of the prognosticators:

Meteorologist Robert Speta is a Broadcast/Operational Meteorologist and the creator of westernpacificweather.com. He has eight years of Operational Meteorology experience in the United States Navy and is currently on air casting the weather for international news network NHK World. Robert is also a member of the American Meteorological Society.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock is an Operational Meteorologist with 16 years of experience in the United States Air Force.  During that time, Mike has forecasted weather in six of seven continents with a focus on aviation meteorology.  Currently, he is working toward a MS Geosciences degree from Mississippi State.  Mike has also been a member of the American Meteorological Society since December 2010.


WeatherCaster Patrick Malejana is based in Long Island, NY where he is working as an Operations Administrator with a private jet charter company.  Pat lived in the Philippines for 15 years and frequent typhoons hitting the country got him interested with meteorology. Pat has a B.S. in Aerospace Systems Technology.

WeatherCaster Michael Williams is a long-time veteran of radio, where he has been a news director and anchor for several stations for the majority of his career. Being born in the sub-tropical region of the USA, Michael became interested in tropical weather at a very early age, spending many years in self-study of tropical cyclones and related phenomena. Now living in the Philippines, Michael lends his talents in public information delivery to the website and on Facebook for residents of the Western Pacific. 

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com

Weekend weather brief – December 31/January 1, 2016-17

NWPAC outlook, 31 DEC/01 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 31 DEC/01 JAN

NORTH

High pressure has built in over the entire north region this weekend, and while that nullifies any precipitation chances, it brings a general lack of movement on the surface, leading to stagnation and hazardous air quality over interior northeastern China. Temperatures across the region are rebounding following last week’s surge, but very cold readings remain over Mongolia, northern China, southeastern Russia, while comfortably cool weather settles over eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar

-19

-2 -17 1 Mostly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

-3

27 1 34 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Beijing

5

41 8 46 Haz. air quality

Haz. air quality

Seoul

7

45 9 48 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

11

52 13 55 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Shanghai

14

57 16 61 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures continue to rebound over the central region as we prepare to welcome in the New Year as the mercury climbs into mild to warm readings across the region. High pressure building in from the north will keep skies clear to partly cloudy over much of the Asian mainland, but clouds and showers will linger over offshore locales, and over northern Indochina, through the weekend.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

16

61 17 63 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Hong Kong

23

73 24 75 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Taipei

23

73 25 77 Sctd. showers

Mostly fair

Naha

21

70 21 70 Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

Hanoi

21

70 21 70 Mostly cloudy

Sctd. showers

 

SOUTH

Dry air has settled in over western portions of the south region, allowing temperatures to warm up considerably over Indochina this weekend. The Philippines will see some showers as the strong northeast monsoon brings in moisture to the northern half of the country, and a weak tropical disturbance east of Mindanao brings rain to the southern portion of the archipelago. Deep moisture persists over the Malay Peninsula and Singapore, while areas to the east will dry out a bit for the New Year.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

30

86 33 91 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Ho Chi Minh

31

88 33 91 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly fair

Manila

30

86 31 88 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

Davao City

29

84 28 82 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

33

91 32 90 Partly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS

One weak tropical disturbance has cropped up just east of the Philippines while the remainder of the region remains rather quiet.

TAAG, 31 DEC

TAAG, 31 DEC

94W INVEST has formed to the east of the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, courtesy of moisture shoved southward by the strong seasonal monsoon and the remnants of what was 93W INVEST. Current computer forecast models are not showing much in the way of development, but a trend towards generally lower pressures in the area will continue for the first few days of the New Year.

94W INVEST, 31 DEC

94W INVEST, 31 DEC

The remainder of the region will see a mix of sun, clouds, and showers as a generally moist atmospheric profile dominates south of 5N latitude, while areas to the north will see much more sunshine.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

31

88 30 86 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Yap

30

86 29 84 Sctd. showers

Sctd. t-storms

Palau

31

88 30 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Chuuk

31

88 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

28

82 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Majuro

29

84 29 84 Sctd t-storms

Partly cloudy

Wake

27

81 28 82 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

 

Have a wonderful weekend and Happy New Year!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Friday, December 30, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 30 DEC

NWPAC outlook, 30 DEC

NORTH

The latest frontal system to pass through the region is making its way out to sea east of Japan, leaving behind high pressure building in over eastern Asia. With the high pressure comes stagnant air over northeastern China, which will decrease air quality levels significantly over the area. Temperatures range from bone-chillingly cold in the northern tier of the region, to cool, but comfortable readings to the south and east. The region will see a mix of clouds and sun with no precipitation to be found anywhere.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-13

-25 9 -13

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-4

-14 25 7

Partly cloudy

Beijing

3

-7 37 19

Partly cloudy

Seoul

3

-2 37 28

Mostly fair

Tokyo

9

1 48 34

Mostly fair

Shanghai

11

3 52 37

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures are rebounding a bit across the central region as the air mass overhead moderates slowly. Aside from some fog and low clouds over the higher terrain of south-central China, and lingering clouds and showers over the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan, the skies will be mostly clear across the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

13

3 55 37

Fog and low clouds

Hong Kong

21

16 70 61

Mostly fair

Taipei

20

18 68 64

Scattered showers likely

Naha

20

18 68 64

Mostly cloudy

Hanoi

24

16 75 61

Mostly fair

 

SOUTH

Much drier air has filtered into Indochina as the seasonal northeast monsoon rebuilds following a brief interruption by recent tropical activity. Skies will be a bit cloudy over interior Indochina as moisture lingers in the mid-levels, but the remainder of the northern half of the region will see a pleasant mix of sun and clouds. To the south, tropical moisture remains in place, lending to a few showers and afternoon thunderstorms at the peak of daytime heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

29

20 84 68

Mostly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

29

23 84 73

Partly cloudy

Manila

32

25 90 77

Partly cloudy

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Scattered showers possible

Brunei

30

24 86 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

As we wrap up 2016, we find very little in the way of activity in the tropical Western Pacific…

TAAG, 30 DEC

TAAG, 30 DEC

Aside from one weak tropical wave east of the southern Philippines, we find that drier air has cleared out much of the activity across the region. Pockets of instability are floating along in the general atmospheric flow, and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over western Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. More northerly locales will see a just few clouds and plenty of sunshine as temperatures settle into climatological norms.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

25 86 77

Mostly fair

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

27

24 81 75

Partly cloudy

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com