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Weekend weather brief – December 24/25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 24-25 DEC

NORTH

Temperatures are cold across the northern half of the north region, courtesy of the latest surge to move into the area. The associated storm system is pushing offshore of northern japan today with a cold front sweeping through the archipelago from north to south. Most of the moisture and inclement weather is associated directly with the strong low pressure area; however, sea-effect snowfall will be prevalent across the western shores and higher terrain of Hokkaido and northern Honshu. High pressure is building in behind the storm system and is bringing clearing conditions across much of the continent, except for portions of eastern China where the frontal system and moisture coming in from the west will keep skies grey and showery.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar -12 10 -18 0 Mostly cloudy Mostly fair
Vladivostok -6 21 -4 25 Partly cloudy Mostly fair
Beijing 4 39 3 37 Mostly fair Mostly cloudy
Seoul 2 36 8 46 Partly cloudy Mostly fair
Tokyo 11 52 11 52 Mostly fair Partly cloudy
Xi’an N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Shanghai 11 52 16 61 Mostly cloudy Sctd. showers

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region will rebound a bit through the weekend as warmer air advects northward ahead of the surge to the north. A few showers will fall across portions of southeastern China and Taiwan today, and skies will remain cloudy over the Ryukyu Islands through the weekend. Temperatures will remain comfortably mild across the region, with the warmest readings to the south.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming 16 61 17 63 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
Hong Kong 20 68 23 73 Sctd. showers Partly cloudy
Taipei 21 70 24 75 Sctd. showers Partly cloudy
Naha 20 68 22 72 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
Hanoi 24 75 27 81 Fog/low clouds Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Residents of the Philippines are watching the developments of typhoon NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it continues to strengthen and move towards the northern half of the archipelago. Storm warning signals have been issued for parts of southeastern Luzon by PAGASA as the storm bears down on the region. For more information on this system, please refer to the “tropics” section of this briefing.

The remainder of the region will enjoy a rather warm, but pleasant, weekend as drier air infiltrates Indochina and clears out the skies, and scattered thunderstorms affect the more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, and the southern Philippines.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

33

91 33 91 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

91 32 90 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Manila

31

88 31 88 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

90 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Singapore

30

86 31 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

TROPICS

TAAG, 24 DEC

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN now a typhoon at category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the evening on Christmas…

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 13.1N, 129.0E, or about 517km (321mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 9 knots (17kph).

Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day, while strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are a bit different.

J.T.W.C. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 130kt (241kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a strong CAT 4 equivalent super-typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 110kt (204kph).

J.M.A. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 100kt (185kph) early Christmas morning, a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

JTWC and JMA forecasts, 24 DEC

PAGASA has issued the following PSWS signals:

SIGNAL #1- Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar

PSWS, 24 DEC

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have FINISHED initial preparations for a significant weather system, should FINISH secondary preparations and begin FINAL PREPARATIONS for this system today.

Residents of south-central Luzon in Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Cavite, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales provinces, including Manila, should be finishing initial preparations today and should begin secondary and final preparations now.

This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary. Buy batteries for flashlights and acquire candles for emergency lighting.

IF YOU LIVE WITHIN 5 KM OF THE EASTERN OR NORTHERN FACING SHORELINES NEAR TO, AND NORTH OF, THE POINT OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LUZON, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WESTERN FACING SHORES OF WESTERN LUZON SOUTH OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER CAN ALSO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE EVENT. THIS INFORMATION WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL THE STORM IS VERY CLOSE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK, THEREFORE, IF YOU LIVE ALONG THESE DESCRIBED SHORELINES, YOU SHOULD EITHER MAKE PREPARATIONS, OF EVACUATE TO INLAND LOCATIONS.

Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter southeastern Luzon at or near Catanduanes Island early in the evening on December 25th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon near Manila, exiting into the South China Sea somewhere between the provinces of Zambales and Cavite in the afternoon of December 26.

However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day.

Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

The remainder of the tropics region will see a warm and mostly wet weekend, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sunshine each day.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

28

82 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

84 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Palau

29

84 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Chuuk

28

82 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Pohnpei

28

82 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Majuro

30

86 28 82 Sctd t-storms

Thunderstorms

Wake

27

81 27 81 Partly cloudy

Sctd. showers

 

Have a wonderful weekend and Merry Christmas!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.
All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Friday, December 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 DEC

NWPAC outlook, 23 DEC

NORTH

 

A surge of cold Siberian air is sliding east-southeast through the north region, and is the harbinger of an even colder air mass that will arrive early next week. The latest storm system associated with the surge is making its way offshore of Japan, with a strong low situated near northeastern Hokkaido. Skies will be cloudy across Southeastern Russia, northeastern China, the Korean peninsula, and northern Japan and a few snow showers and flurries are possible across these areas, especially to the east. Sea-effect snow is likely across northern and central japan as well as high pressure builds in and brings a strong northwesterly wind across the relatively warm waters of the Sea of Japan. Temperatures across continental areas of the northern half of the region will be near, or below, 0C (32F) today, with areas to the south and east seeing readings in the teens. Tokyo will see record warmth today ahead of frontal passage later tonight, when temperatures will drop significantly.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -14 -24 7 -11 Partly cloudy
Vladivostok -9 -17 16 1 Mostly cloudy/Snow flurries
Beijing 3 -5 37 23 Partly cloudy
Seoul -1 -6 30 21 Mostly cloudy/Snow flurries
Tokyo 17 7 63 45 Mostly fair
Xi’an N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Shanghai 11 3 52 37 Fog and low clouds

 

CENTRAL

 

The latest frontal system to pass through the central region has cleared things out quite nicely, leaving behind a refreshing shot of cooler and drier air over the region. Temperatures will be down slightly over readings from the past few days, with only portions of southern china and northern Indochina seeing an increase as warm air from the south advects northward a bit. Aside from a few showers over the higher terrain of south-central China, skies will be partly cloudy region-wide.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 15 8 59 47 Scattered showers possible
Hong Kong 23 18 73 64 Partly cloudy
Taipei 19 16 66 61 Partly cloudy
Naha 20 16 68 61 Partly cloudy
Hanoi 26 18 79 64 Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

 

All attention in the south, and especially the Philippines, is focused on the progress of tropical storm NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. This storm looks to bring quite a hit to the most populated area of the country late this weekend and early next week. For more on this system, please see the ‘tropics” section of this briefing. Drier air has settled into much of the northern half of the south region, especially over Indochina and the northern half of the Philippines, keeping skies clear to partly cloudy. Tropical moisture remains over the southern half of the region, where a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pop up during the peak of daytime heating. Temperatures will remain warm, with most locations seeing readings in the low 30’s C (near 90F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 32 22 90 72 Mostly fair
Ho Chi Minh 33 23 91 73 Partly cloudy
Manila 31 24 88 75 Mostly fair
Davao City 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 31 24 88 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore 31 24 88 75 Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

 

Tropical storm 30W NOCK-TEN continues to increase strength…has entered the P.A.R. (Philippine Area of Responsibility) and has been named “Nina” by PAGASA…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the early morning hours of December 26th…

TAAG, 23 DEC

TAAG, 23 DEC

 

30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 10.9N, 135.0E, or about 1251km (777mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 18 knots (33kph). Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day and strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A now agree. J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are showing a system with peak sustained winds of 105kt (194kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

 

 

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have begun initial preparations for a significant weather system, and should begin secondary preparations as soon as possible. This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary, and these efforts should be done on places of interest that will not be occupied during the storm, such as a place of business or an extra building/garage. Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

 

The current official tracks show the system to enter south-central Luzon in Quezon province early in the morning on December 26th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon just north of Manila, exiting into the South China Sea in the province of Zambales on the evening of December 26. However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day. Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

 

Elsewhere across the tropics, plenty of latent moisture remains over much of the region, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially over western locales. The tail end of a continental surge will help bring some showers to Wake Island today, while temperatures across the region are indicative of the minimal sun angle and intrusions of cooler air from the north, settling in near the upper20’s C (mid-upper 80’s F).

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Guam

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

24 82 75

Scattered showers likely

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Thursday, December 22, 2016

15644188_1380179958661494_1104877414_n

NORTH

New surge of Siberian air is pushing through the north region today, with the coldest air staying in the northernmost reaches of the region. A storm system associated with the surge front will bring a chance of rain to the Korean peninsula and japan, while moderate snowfall will affect southeastern Russia and extreme northeastern China. Clouds and a few sprinkles will also linger over eastern China as the frontal system continues to push offshore. Behind the front, temperatures are well below freezing to the north, and near single digits C (30s-low 40’s F) across the majority of the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -13 -25 9 -13 Partly cloudy
Vladivostok -7 -13 19 -9 Periods of snow/wind
Beijing 6 -6 43 21 Mostly fair
Seoul 7 -2 45 28 Scattered showers likely
Tokyo 19 15 66 59 Scattered showers likely
Xi’an N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Shanghai 10 4 50 39 Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The latest frontal system is pushing offshore of the central region today, helping generate clouds and showers over much of the region and ushering in a refreshing shot of cooler air, in advance of a much stronger surge early next week. The front will bring rainfall to the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan, and also kick up some showers in southern China and northern Indochina, as clouds linger over the higher terrain of south-central China. Temperatures are falling slightly over the region, with the greatest effect felt in the more southerly locations.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 13 7 77 45 Mostly cloudy
Hong Kong 24 17 75 63 Partly cloudy
Taipei 23 16 73 61 Periods of rain
Naha 26 17 79 63 Periods of rain
Hanoi 23 17 73 63 Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

Attention in the south region remains fixed on what will be a Christmas Grinch of a storms system, in the form of tropical storm 30W. This system is expected to cross the Philippines during, or just after, Christmas day. For more on this system, please see the “tropics’ section of this briefing. For today, most locations will see drier air with partly cloudy to sunny conditions. Some thunderstorms could pop up in the more southerly locales of the southern Philippines, Singapore, and the Malay Peninsula as tropical moisture stays locked in. Temperatures will stay warm across the region, with all points checking in with highs in the low-30’sC (near 90F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 32 22 90 72 Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 23 91 73 Partly cloudy
Manila 32 24 90 75 Mostly fair
Davao City 31 24 88 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 32 24 90 75 Partly cloudy
Singapore 31 24 88 75 Thunderstorms possible

 15659047_1380180075328149_1177715442_o

TROPICS

30W upgraded to tropical storm and given the name “NOCK-TEN”…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall on late evening on Christmas…

 

30W has been upgraded to a TROPICAL STORM and given the international name NOCK-TEN. At 5am, J.T.W.C placed the center near 7.9N, 140.3E, or about 1863km (1158mi) southeast of Virac, Catanduanes, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 12 knots (22kph). Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon very late on Christmas day however; strength estimates on landfall differ between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. The system is currently affecting the western islands of Micronesia as it presses on its course, with Yap Island seeing the greatest effects today.

J.T.W.C. is showing a system with 95kt (176kph) sustained winds, a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a strong CAT 2 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while J.M.A. is indicating a much weaker system at only 50kt (93kph) sustained winds, a tropical storm equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale, or, a “severe tropical storm” on the J.M.A. strength scale.. This difference is due to the changing atmospheric profiles and the disparity between computer-generated forecast models.

30W-GRADIENT WINDS-22 DEC

30W-GRADIENT WINDS-22 DEC

It should be noted, and not trivially, that where you are in relation to this system when/if it makes landfall will determine how strong the winds are at your location.

Due to the established strong northeast monsoon, or “amihan”, locations to the north of the system’s center of circulation will see stronger winds than locations to the south.

First, we have what is called the “pressure gradient”, or, the short distance between to areas of greatly different atmospheric pressure. The closer these areas are to each other, the higher the winds will be due to the very rapid differences in pressure. Think of high pressure as a dome and low pressure as a vortex…air will travel from the top of the dome to the center of the vortex more rapidly if their relative distance is shorter.

Secondly, we have the storm’s forward speed, which adds to the factor.

Finally, we have the NE monsoon, or “amihan”, which we have estimated near 20kt.

The effects are cumulative. For the sake of this instruction, we have split the difference between the current strength estimates given by JMA and JTWC, and settled on a 75kt (139kph) storm system, and found a median track forecast placement as well.

Here is how the math works:

Storm’s winds – 75kt (139kph)

Storm’s forward speed – 12kt (20kph)

NE monsoon winds – 20kt (37kph

Total cumulative winds north of center – 107kt (198kph). Here’s a graphic to demonstrate:

 

Winds could be up to 40-50kph stronger, or more, in locations immediately north of the center. The storm will also enhance the “amihan”, meaning a much more extensive wind field in the northern half, and specifically in the northwestern quadrant, of the system. This wind field will extend a great distance to the north.

Conversely, if you are located to the south of the system, winds will be strong, but not as strong as the northwestern portion of the system.

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, should have begun initial preparations for a significant weather system. This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The remainder of the tropics region will see plentiful moisture in place combining with the warm afternoon sunshine to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the more northerly locales being the lone exceptions.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

26 84 79

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

Palau

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

31

26 88 79

Mostly cloudy

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

27

24 81 75

Partly cloudy

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, December 20, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 20 DEC

NWPAC outlook, 20 DEC

NORTH

The big story in the north region continues to be the dangerous haze conditions across northeastern China, as high pressure continues to reign in the area, causing stagnant atmospheric conditions. A new weather system is on the horizon which will help sweep out much of the funk, but for the next couple of days, air quality conditions will remain status quo over this area. To the northwest, a new surge of Siberian air is moving into Mongolia, bringing snow showers and a drop in temperatures. Fog and low clouds continue to hamper travel across the high country of central China, while scattered showers dampen spirits across eastern China. Aside from the most northerly locales, high temperatures will be comfortably cool across the north region, with most readings in the mid-teens C (50’s F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-7

-24 19 -11

Snow showers likely

Vladivostok

4

-8 39 18

Mostly fair

Beijing

8

-2 46 28

Haze

Seoul

13

1 55 34

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

15

6 59 43

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

12

3 54 37

Fog and low clouds

Shanghai

14

13 57 55

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a rather warm day with temperatures inching upwards as the latest air mass moderates over the region. Cloudy skies will persist over the higher terrain of south-central China while scattered showers are likely offshore to the east and over portions of southern China and northern Indochina. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

7 63 45

Mostly cloudy

Hong Kong

26

22 79 72

Partly cloudy

Taipei

28

21 82 70

Partly cloudy

Naha

24

22 75 72

Scattered showers likely

Hanoi

28

22 82 72

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

Attention in the south region is turned to newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST, which looks to bring a stormy Christmas surprise top parts of the Philippines this weekend. I’ll have more on this system in the “tropics” section of this update. Otherwise, fair weather will dominate much of the region today, especially over central Indochina and the Philippines, while deep tropical moisture remains locked in over more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and southern Vietnam. Temperatures will be quite warm region wide, with readings in the low-30’s C (near 90F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

31

25 88 77

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST looks to bring in a round of stormy weather to the Philippines, just in time for Christmas.

15592479_1377522645593892_1904616406_n

92W INVEST, located southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia, was designated late yesterday morning by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory). The system is slowly consolidating southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia as it slowly moves west-northwest towards the Philippines. The current forecasts from GFS, ECM, and JMA show a rather weak system moving over the northern Visayas and southern Luzon area on Christmas Eve. GFS shows a system with central pressure near 996hPa, ECM shows it to be near 998hPa, and JMA shows it near 1006hPa. All of these estimates would correspond to a strong tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm. This means that the central Philippines (Visayas and southern Luzon) will see a very stormy Christmas. While winds may not pose the greatest risk, heavy rainfall from this system will inundate areas already saturated by the rain brought in from the seasonal northeast monsoon (amihan). Widespread flooding, landslides, and other associated hazards are likely as this system passes through the archipelago. We will continue to monitor this situation for further developments.

15609029_1377520298927460_1833095425_o

Elsewhere across the tropics, deep moisture south of 10 degrees north latitude, and west of 150 east longitude, will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances across the island locations of the region, while more easterly and northerly locales such as Guam, Wake, and the Marshall Islands will see much drier air in place, and much more sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

25 86 77

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Mostly cloudy

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

28

25 82 77

Mostly fair

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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