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25 April 2012 Western Pacific Tropical Video Update

Invest 97W is moving towards Palau, what can we expect as its moves across the island and towards the Philippines?

At this time this area of storms is gaining strength and organization today, a low amount of wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures are contributing to this, but going in to the later part of the week this could slowly diminish, at this point though it is another on of the storms that needs to be watched closely.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Strong Storm Blows over Japan and Rains hit the Southern PI / 21 April 2012

A deep low pressure system is now cruising across Korea and on to Japan today after bringing nasty weather to South Eastern China this past week. Even a report of a tornado occurred just North of Hong Kong. This same weather system brought 70kt winds and hail to the region. But now as the weather tapers off there it builds in Korea and Japan. Already warnings are in place across southern and western Japan for thunderstorms, heavy rains and flash floods.  So a wet weekend in store and a umbrella will be handy. Also if anyone has any videos taken of the rain and storms you are more than welcomed to share.

The tropics remain loose and disorganized today as rain showers run over the southern Philippines. Some localized flooding is still a risk as a few of the storms could drop up to 20-30mm of rainfall in an hour going in to the afternoon to evening hours here.

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~Meteorologist Robert Speta

20 APRIL Western Pacific Weather Video Update

South East China continues to get battered with rainfall as a stationary boundary begins to set up in the region. Already large hail storms have been reported this week and a mesmerizing lightning show was put on in Hong Kong. Now it does look like even more rainfall will continue to fall here bringing the risk of flooding.  The chart below has been put out by CMA depicting where the heaviest rainfall will be.


Elsewhere the tropics remain relatively quite today but a few thunderstorms continue to erupt in Malaysia and the Southern Philippines. But this is accompanied by some apperceive hot weather with temperatures in the high 30s.  A Easterly wave is also working its way West south of Guam, this needs watching through the weekend as it brings the threats of heavy rains to the Southern PI. No tropical development is expected out of it though.

Australia Tropical Video Update 18-19 April

The LOW in the Northern Territory remains weak and is tracking towards moderate vertical wind shear and drier air. Due to those reasons it should remain weak until at least Friday night.

At this stage the global computer models are suggestive of a more favourable environment in the Timor Sea starting Saturday morning and continuing on into Sunday. Therefore the LOW has some developmental potential on Saturday, however we still don’t expect a cyclone out of it.

Longer term, there is no definitive guidance on movement with some models washing the LOW out by the weekend, others move the system west over Timor and Indonesia, while others have the system drifting south and hitting the North Kimberley coastline.

At this stage no models are developing this system into a tropical cyclone, however the system will need to be watched closely if it can survive into Saturday as the conditions become more favourable (at least temporarily). Full details in the video.

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