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Daily weather brief – Thursday, January 5, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 05 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 05 JAN

NORTH

A reinforcing shot of cooler air has settled over the northernmost reaches of the north region, hints of things to come as we get into the weekend and early next week. Air quality levels in Beijing are at hazardous readings, and while snow falls from the hazy skies, there is little relief in sight in the near-term. Some moisture is pushing up from the south, bringing rainfall to eastern China and cloudy skies to the Korean peninsula. Temperatures will be chilly across mainland Asia and Japan, where Tokyo will enjoy scattered clouds and sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-13

-27 9 -17

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

-7

-18 19 0

Mostly fair

Beijing

3

-4 37 25

Snow showers/HAZARDOUS AIR

Seoul

10

-1 50 30

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

10

0 50 32

Mostly fair

Shanghai

12

11 54 52

Periods of rain

CENTRAL

Warmer air is advecting northward across the central region, ahead of a new surge that will push through next week. The moisture that has been moving through the region has travelled north, leaving behind fair to partly cloudy skies across much of the region, except for northern Indochina, where clouds streaming in from the southwest will keep the sun at bay.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

14

6 57 43

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

25

20 77 68

Partly cloudy

Taipei

27

18 81 64

Mostly fair

Naha

23

20 73 68

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

27

19 81 66

Mostly cloudy

SOUTH

Drier air continues to settle over Indochina, letting the warm sunshine heat things up a bit across the peninsula. Moisture being trucked in the by the strong seasonal northeast monsoon will bring a chance for scattered thunderstorms over the northern Philippines, while tropical moisture associated with the remnants of 94W and 95W will bring clouds and thunderstorms to the southern half of the archipelago. Moisture is entrenched over the Malay peninsula, Singapore, and Brunei as well, giving these locations a good chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

23 91 73

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Manila

30

23 86 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

27

23 81 73

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

The tropics remain quiet, aside from weak pulses of energy and moisture in the western half of the region…

TAAG, 05 JAN

TAAG, 05 JAN

The remnants of 94W and 95W will bring plentiful showers and thunderstorms across the southern Philippines today. The ITCZ remains well below the 10 latitude, with most of the region’s moisture settled in below that latitude. There are no areas of concern out there at this time, and most locations in the southern half of the region will see a chance for showers or scattered thunderstorms, while mostly dry conditions will prevail over areas to the north. For more details on the tropical situation, please see the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on the site.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

24 88 75

Partly cloudy

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered showers possible

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

24 82 75

Partly cloudy

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, January 3, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 03 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 03 JAN

NORTH

A fresh surge of cooler air has made its way into the north region, lowering temperatures across the northern tier of the region. A frontal system is draped diagonally from northeast to southwest across the region, with high pressure building in behind it. The front has yet to move through north-central China, so hazardous air quality will be in place until frontal passage takes place later today. Another moderate storm system is pushing eastward out of northern Japan, leaving clearing skies behind. Temperatures will still be frigid across the northern and western portions of the region, while areas to the south and east will see cool, but comfortable readings. Skies will be mostly fair across much of the region, with eastern China being the lone exception as fog and low clouds keep the sun at bay.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-11

-25 12 -13

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-2

-13 28 9

Mostly fair

Beijing

9

-4 48 25

Partly cloudy

Seoul

6

-1 43 30

Mostly fair

Tokyo

12

4 54 39

Mostly fair

Shanghai

14

7 57 45

Fog and low clouds

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region will remain mild and comfortable today, as high pressure filters into the region from the north. Cloudy skies and rainfall will dampen spirits across the higher terrain of south-central China, and scattered showers will fall across Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands as moisture from the west gets swept up into a storm system to the north. Along the coast of southeast China and over northern Indochina, skies will be fair to partly cloudy, with plentiful sunshine bringing about fairly warm temperatures.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

13

7 55 45

Periods of rain

Hong Kong

26

19 79 66

Mostly fair

Taipei

22

19 72 63

Scattered showers likely

Naha

23

18 73 64

Scattered showers likely

Hanoi

28

17 82 63

Partly cloudy

SOUTH

Drier air has settled in over the northern tier of the south region, and the warm sunshine will allow temperatures to rise quickly across these areas. Moisture in the region is relegated to the southern portion of the region, as the strong seasonal northeast monsoon pushes much of it down below 10 degree latitude. However, this means that portions of Malaysia, as well as Singapore and Brunei will see a good chance for an afternoon thunderstorm, and the southern Philippines will see some scattered showers and tropical moisture lingers in the area.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

21 91 70

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

23 91 73

Partly cloudy

Manila

32

24 90 75

Partly cloudy

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Scattered showers possible

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Singapore

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

Tropical disturbance 95W INVEST is the only game in town as the tropics look rather quiet to start the New Year…

TAAG, 03 JAN

TAAG, 03 JAN



95W INVEST continues to look quite disorganized to the southeast of western Micronesia, suffering from low latitude and a rather sparse moisture profile, relatively-speaking. Current long-range forecast models are fairly consistent with this system, showing a weak area of low pressure affecting the island of Mindanao in the Philippines by the end of the week. For more on the tropical situation, please see the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on the website.

95W INVEST, 03 JAN

95W INVEST, 03 JAN



The I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is still quite depressed, both in terms of activity and latitude, as it meanders south of 10 degrees north latitude. Southerly locales within the region will see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, while northernmost islands will see fair to partly cloudy skies and continental air filters into these locales.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

25 86 77

Mostly cloudy

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

24 82 75

Mostly fair

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Monday, January 2, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 02 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 02 JAN

NORTH

Generally air and cool weather will kick off the first work week of 2017 across the north region today. Weak impulses of energy are pushing through the eastern portion of the region, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Fog and haze, along with very poor air quality, will afflict parts of central northern China, while the remainder of the region enjoys just a few scattered clouds. Temperatures will be coldest in the extreme north while, to the south and east, readings will be quite mild for early January.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-13

-21 9 -6

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

2

-14 36 7

Partly cloudy

Beijing

7

-6 45 21

Fog, low clouds, & HAZE

Seoul

9

-5 48 23

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

12

3 54 37

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

16

6 61 43

Partly cloudy

CENTRAL

Temperatures are warming up significantly across the central region, as high pressure associated with the coldest air stays well to the north and the warm sunshine heats things up through partly cloudy skies. Northern Indochina could see some foggy conditions and low clouds, while the remainder of the region enjoys abundant sunshine and scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

9 63 48

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

27

19 81 63

Mostly fair

Taipei

27

19 81 63

Mostly fair

Naha

22

19 72 66

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

24

20 75 68

Fog and low clouds

 

SOUTH

Dry air and abundant sunshine over central Indochina will allow temperatures to soar over the area this afternoon, while the remainder of the region sees more seasonable readings. Moisture is confined to the most southerly locations of Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and the southern Philippines, where remnant moisture from 94W will help provide fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

22 91 72

Mostly fair

Ho Chi Minh

33

23 91 73

Scattered showers

Manila

31

24 88 75

Partly cloudy

Davao City

29

23 84 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

The tropics are mostly quiet, with the exception of weak activity in the westernmost reaches of the region.

TAAG, 02 JAN

TAAG, 02 JAN

94W INVEST has petered out over the southern Philippines, but the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) has designated an area of disturbed weather southeast of Palau as 95W INVEST. Current forecast models are mixed on this system, but the general thought is that the system will remain weak and impact portions of the southern Philippines with rainfall later this weekend. For more details on the tropical outlook, please check the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on the website.

The remainder of the tropics are mostly quiet, with scattered pockets of energy along a weak I.T.C.Z. south of 10 degrees latitude. Locales north of this latitude will see partly cloudy skies as continental air masses continue to infiltrate the area.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

24 82 75

Partly cloudy

 

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Results of the WPACWX 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Seasons predictions

2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions

** THE RESULTS **

Earlier last year, the team at WesternPacificWeather.com put our heads together and came up with our outlooks on the 2016 season. At that time things were very quiet, and we were bored while we waited on the first storm to form. Well, it did, as did many others, and it turned out to be a pretty active year in the WPAC, but still about average. Here’s how we did on our predictions!

Overall, most of us saw a “less-than-typical” year shaping up as we headed into the season, due in large part to the relaxation of the Strong El Nino event of 2015, and hints of a developing La Nina ahead. The La Nina did not quite develop to the levels that were expected, which lent a hand into keeping the tropical weather numbers near climatological norms.

Let’s see how the guys broke down the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season… 

 

Team member

TS

TY

STY

Accur. Rate (%)*

Meteorologist Robert Speta

25 (-1)

16 (+3)

6 (0)

96/81/100-   92.3%
Meteorologist Mike Adcock

24 (-2)

11 (-2)

3 (-3)

92/84/50-     75.3%
Weathercaster Patrick Malejana

22 (-4)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

84/92/67-     81.0%
Weathercaster Michael Williams

21 (-5)

10 (-3)

4 (-2)

80/77/67-     74.6%
Climatological Average

26

16

9

100/81/67- 82.6%
WPACWX.com average

23 (-3)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

88/92/67-   82.3%
Actual 2016 Totals (unofficial)

26

13

6

***************

 

* Denotes departure from actual totals

The accuracy rate is quite unscientific, simply averaging out the prediction/actual average for each prediction category (TS, TY, STY) regardless of direction, and then averaging out the totals.

The results…

Meteorologist Robert Speta was our most accurate prognosticator, with an average accuracy rate of 92.3% overall. He was only -1 on his prediction for the tropical storm outlook, was a bit higher at +3 on his view of typhoon formation potential, and was dead-on with his call for 6 super typhoons on the year.

Weathercaster Patrick Malejana was next best in average accuracy with a rate of 81.0%. He underestimated the general level of activity of the season, with the tropical storm outlook missed by -4, but made up ground by only being -1 on typhoon formation potential, and -2 on super typhoon expectations.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock was next with an average accuracy rating of 75.3%. Mike’s also underestimated the activity level of the season in general, as his overall outlook trended lower than the actual figures, with his tropical storm outlook at -2, typhoon formation potential at -2, and super typhoon expectations at -3.

Finally, Weather caster Michael Williams finished last in the group with an average accuracy rate of 74.6%. Michael also underestimated the overall level of the 2016 season, missing the tropical storm outlook by -5, typhoon formation potential by -3, and super typhoon expectations at -2.

Overall, the WPACWX.com team finished with an overall average of 82.3%, with a general underestimation of the level of 2016 tropical cyclone activity. We missed the tropical storm outlook by -3, the typhoon potential by -2, and the super typhoon expectations by -1.

Thus ends the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season, and overall, we think we did pretty well. Congratulations to our Robert Speta, and stay tuned, because our outlook for the 2017 season will be here before you know it!

Here’s a little bit about each of the prognosticators:

Meteorologist Robert Speta is a Broadcast/Operational Meteorologist and the creator of westernpacificweather.com. He has eight years of Operational Meteorology experience in the United States Navy and is currently on air casting the weather for international news network NHK World. Robert is also a member of the American Meteorological Society.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock is an Operational Meteorologist with 16 years of experience in the United States Air Force.  During that time, Mike has forecasted weather in six of seven continents with a focus on aviation meteorology.  Currently, he is working toward a MS Geosciences degree from Mississippi State.  Mike has also been a member of the American Meteorological Society since December 2010.


WeatherCaster Patrick Malejana is based in Long Island, NY where he is working as an Operations Administrator with a private jet charter company.  Pat lived in the Philippines for 15 years and frequent typhoons hitting the country got him interested with meteorology. Pat has a B.S. in Aerospace Systems Technology.

WeatherCaster Michael Williams is a long-time veteran of radio, where he has been a news director and anchor for several stations for the majority of his career. Being born in the sub-tropical region of the USA, Michael became interested in tropical weather at a very early age, spending many years in self-study of tropical cyclones and related phenomena. Now living in the Philippines, Michael lends his talents in public information delivery to the website and on Facebook for residents of the Western Pacific. 

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com