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BREAKING: Deep Low Over Japan Moving Away, Rough Conditions Persist Over Vladivostok; Extreme Tropical Heat In Philippine Archipelago, Malaysian Peninsula Surges On

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Deep “Low” Ushers Bad Weather Across Japan, Korean Peninsula & Vladivostok

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Earlier on Sunday, 22 April 2012, a massive “Low” forges forward off the Yellow Sea, and into West & Southern Japanese Islands, bringing heavy rains and sporadic thunderstorms which has become severe in Naha, Okinawa and the Ryukus Region, and Muroto, just Southwest of Tokushima. The severe weather has also caused disruptions in transportation as dangerous conditions such as flooding potential and occurrence of “Tornadic” activity was not ruled out by the local authorities.

According to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the deep “Low” Pressure system was causing windy conditions and rough seas, along the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The highest winds were recorded near Ryukus Islands, where based on ASCAT wind analysis, I have been observing that top winds have reached to 50 kt (92 km/hr) at most, with stronger gusts as the system continues to drape the Japanese mainland with much convective clouds, and trailing along with it was an active “Front,” anchored along another area of “Low,” just off Hainan Island, in China.

JMA has been issuing several watches on the severe thunderstorm activity affecting the Ryukus Islands, and some parts of Fukui Region, and in Tsuruga, where the agency has been watching a potential for a “Tornado,” of which they have been issuing a “Level 1,” advisory there since 1500-JST (0600Z/0200PM-PHL/MAL).

Heavy precipitation was being observed also especially along Naha, in Okinawa Island, and in Ryukus Islands, wherein rainfall accumulation has reached to 150 mm to 200 mm in just 2 hours of intense rainfall brought about by the system. There were no reports of damage to property or injuries associated with the storm in the region.

The storm has been especially slow in its track Northeastwards, but remains “Quasi-stationary,” at the moment along Vladivostok, the Russian Federation territory.

Fig. 1.0 "JMA's nowcasting precipitation at 1515-JST (0215PM-PHL/MAL). Image Courtesy: JMA, Text: Weatherguy Adonis."

High Pressure Ridge Pushes “Front,” To Dip South, New “Spring Storm” In Progress

The said “Front,” was being forecast to move through along the Okinawa Region within the next 12 hrs, pushing the “Low,” clear off Japan’s West and Central Prefectures by early Monday afternoon. Having said that, the “Front,” was being pushed ultimately Southwards by a dominant “Ridge of High Pressure,” that has been persistent for the last four (4) days along the East Chinese mainland, causing the spillage into the Northwestern periphery of Luzon and the Taiwanese Islands, in between Batanes Island Group and the Babuyan Channel to the North of the Philippines. This has been the reason for a surge of cooler air mass from the West Philippine Sea, a.k.a. “South China Sea,” which has been oscillating some thunderstorms across the Northernmost towns of Luzon, especially along Cagayan and Isabela Provinces to the East, and the grand Cordilleras Region to the Center of Luzon, flanked by Zambales to the West, and Manila in the farther South of it.

As the sweltering heat continues to take its hold across Southeast Asian Region, I have been positive in noting that in the coming 2-3 days, another “Spring Storm,” is forecast to head towards Eastern China, and through Tuesday or Wednesday into the new working week, the Korean Peninsula and Japanese coast could expect another round of severe weather and dipping temperatures especially in higher elevations, more specifically in Sapporo and Hokkaido’s Northernmost tip this week.

Fig. 2.0 "A graphical analysis I made to interpret more closely the weather situation across the Philippine archipelago at 1401Z (1001PM-PHL/MAL). Image Courtesy: NRL Mry, Text: Weatherguy Adonis."

Meantime, Hong Kong could yet again experience another week of severe weather as two (2) brewing storms off Central China has been developing for the last 24 hrs, and this could again spill some exceptionally supercharged atmosphere in the territory in the coming days, which the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been closely monitoring its progress.

Flood Warnings For Mindanao, Scattered Thunderstorms Underway 

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), based in Quezon City, Philippines has been issuing a warning on potential flooding along Mindanao, as the trailing effects of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the prevailing High Pressure affecting Luzon. This was being reflected in their 0900Z (0500PM-PHL/MAL) advisory on Saturday, 22 April 2012, which the agency did not made mention of a surging “Front,” emanating from mainland China, which could spell some respite from the searing heat that has yet jumped to 38.9C on the same day in Tuguegarao City, in Cagayan Province, and Manila sizzled at 36C, which are based on the highest reading that was obtained at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL).

Based on the runs that I have been focused on, the surging “Cold air,” mass from the mainland China, colliding with the “Warm front,” from the East of the country could spell the “Orographic lift,” that could spawn some localized thunderstorm activity and increase convection along the coastlines of Palawan, Southern Visayas and Mindanao, and also along the West Philippine Sea, just West of Southern Tagalog Provinces and the Greater Manila Area (GMA) later today.

I am positive on this because the odds are getting better for “Rain showers,” in spots across the country’s Western seaboards and the Eastern coast of Mindanao and Visayas, specifically in Leyte-Samar Provinces, too. We’ll see about it later today when it finally happens.

Fig. 3.0 "An ominous thunderstorm activity which I took photo of on Sunday, 22 April 2012, 24-ft high above the ground over Iloilo City, Philippines. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

The problem I was encountering for almost two (2) years now is the absence of PAGASA’s Doppler Radar Imagery, which I have been consistently been campaigning them to officially open the said facility to public access considering the fact that it was bound to serve the greater purpose of educating most of the 92-million strong Filipinos in the country. I really don’t know why the weather bureau hides it from public eye.

I am calling the attention of the current administration, being led by His Excellency Benigno S. Aquino III, of the Philippine Republic, to look into this matter and forge a better organization within the system that governs the country’s weather bureau, whom enjoys a very unpopular reputation amongst majority of its constituency–the Filipino people deserve more from PAGASA, no more slump in forecasting capability, but an empowered workforce, better equipped agency with a primordial duty to protect its citizenry from the adverse effects of climatic challenges of perennial storms and recurring droughts.

Also, I have been monitoring the situation over Luzon, the rest of Southern Tagalog Regions for the last 48 hours, since we got some welcome rains here in Iloilo City on Saturday night, 22 April 2012, coupled with intense thunderstorm activity and rolling thunder across the horizon that could be heard from afar.

Fig. 4.0 "Thundery rains could be seen from afar, as Cb clouds hang low beneath the base of a developing thunderstorm anvil just overhead Iloilo City. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

Malaysia Is Never Far

Based on the Global Forecasting System (GFS), a lot of tropical rainfall could be persisting especially along the near-Equatorial Regions of Asia-Pacific in the coming days, which include our fellow weather caster, Francis Chuah, from Kedah, Malaysia’s Northwesternmost Region is currently located.

Mr. Chuah has been reporting that at around 1300Z (0900PM-PHL/MAL), there has been lightning and some thunder rolling through the night sky, and as the night progresses further, at around 1545Z (1145PM-PHL/MAL), rains have finally fallen in his location. This was also confirmed by their Malaysian Meteorological Department (MalayMet), through Doppler Radar Imagery.

At the onset, there has been two (2) separate “Lows” affecting Malaysia Peninsula and Borneo, which could induce more tropical rains within the next 2-3 days in the forecast. Summer heat can become unbearable especially between early 0200Z (1000AM-PHL/MAL), and 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), which are mostly affecting the “Diurnal” episode of the convective processes of condensation and evaporation rate per area, that also would depend on the prevailing “Warm air,” and “Cold air” masses that collides which should provide an “Orographic lifting,” that provides the formation of Cb clouds, between low and high elevations. This process also allows the air masses to rise and cool down almost instantaneously as it generates “Humidity,” which result to “Precipitable” cloud formations, and on the most favourable of all conditions, it yields what we call, “Rainfall.”

Fig. 5.0 "A Doppler Radar Imagery of Malaysia Peninsula and Borneo indicating scattered tropical rain showers evidenced in the map. Image Courtesy: MalayMet."

Meantime, this has been your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Massive 8.7 Temblor Hits Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami In Progress

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Panic-struck People Across Asia As Massive 8.7 Mb Earthquake Hits Northern Sumatra, Sparks Evacuation

Iloilo City, Philippines, 11 April 2012, (0951Z)–There was another huge Temblor that has hit the already Earthquake and Tsunami stricken Banda Aceh, in Sumatra, Indonesia back in 26 December 2004, “Boxing Day,” geologic event.  The United States Geological Survey (USGS), has issued a preliminary report on this as 8.9 Mb but later it was confirmed that it has been lowered to 8.7 Mb, nevertheless, it is a major one!

The epicenter was about 434 km Southwest of Northern Sumatra, just off Banda Aceh in Indonesia, it struck the region, 33 km beneath the surface–it means the “Subduction Zone,” involved in huge “Rupture,” it could reach 300 kms long underneath the Ocean floor.  Experts have been sounding the alarm for an ensuing Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami is in effect along the immediate coast of Sumatra, Indonesia particularly under the gun as the Tectonic Plates moving forth ditched closer to “Horizontal” motion, according to Garry Gibson, a Geologist based in Australia, CNN in its reports as this even is in progress within the next 24 hrs.

The Earthquake has struck at around 0839Z, between 2N-92.5E, and widespread damage could be expected in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the closest to the epicenter of today’s huge Temblor.  It has a depth of 33 km beneath the surface, considered very shallow.  A lot of people have been evacuating into higher ground after authorities in Sumatra after the strong tremor has been observed.

There were also unconfirmed reports that in Phuket, Pha Nhang in Thailand, the local authorities are expediting evacuations as they believe the Tsunami waves could reach 4.0 m in height.  Since the Earthquake has already past, the growing concerns are about the ensuing Tsunami that could have been generated out of this gigantic geological event. Critical areas could have been already hit several times by the waves as of posting and it’s getting dark now.

Fig. 1.0 "The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii, USA has issued this graph pertaining to a Tsunami Watch in effect over the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: PTWC."

The PTWC has issued a Tsunami Watch,” across Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Australia, Myanmar, Thailand, Maldives, United Kingdom, Malaysia, Mauritius, Reunion, Seychelles, Pakistan, Somalia, Oman, Madagascar, Iran, Uae, Yemen, Comores, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Mozambique, Kenya, Crozet Islands, Kerguelen Islands, South Africa, Singapore.  These areas are to closely monitor the rise and fall of sea levels within the next crucial 30 minutes and the forthcoming hours after the preliminary Earthquake has been felt.  Tremors will continue to shake the region as the ground tries to settle down within the next week or so.

Fig. 2.0 "People went outside the buildings in Malaysia as a strong tremor was being felt in Northern regions of the country as the massive 8.7 Mb Temblor has hit Northern Sumatra off the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: all over the net I guess."

Japan’s NHK World has been monitoring the development of this latest seismic upheavals.  Our resident meteorologist, Robert Speta has been reporting live on NHK World after Newsline, as I post this article right now, the weather could also be a significant factor as regards to rescue efforts ongoing along the coast of Sumatran Islands especially in cut-off regions in Simeulue Island, in Sumatra, Indonesia, which unconfirmed reports of a 6.0 m surge of Tsunamis was reported, as heavy rainfall could trigger landslips and flooding that could severely affect the already volatile situation in the area.

Update 1.0:  Francis Chuah, our affiliate author based in Malaysia has been reporting that his sister has been feeling the effects of another huge 8.2 Mb Aftershock, and it was strongly felt across the region at the moment.  Mr. Chuah was the one who gave first insights through his sister based in Northern part of Malaysia late this afternoon, same time with me here in the Philippines.

Fig. 3.0 "The first BIG Jolt that has struck off the Southwestern coast of Banda Aceh. Image Courtesy: USGS."

USGS reports of the huge Aftershock to be near 615 km South-southwest of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia, 0.773N-92.452E, epicentered at 16.4 km beneath the surface, which places this one very shallow. In ChennaiIndia has been shutting its ports in the advance of the incoming Tsunami arrival there.

Fig. 4.0 "Another huge aftershock has hit more South-southwest of the previous 8.6 Mb Temblor. Image Courtesy: USGS."

Reports of 60 cm in height of Tsunami waves has been arriving in Aceh, 80 cm in Meulaboh, all in Sumatran coast in Indonesia.  There has been information also of waters receding back at 10.0 m in Meulaboh.

More details coming in as it becomes available.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! Stay safe and stay away from the coast, seek higher ground if you are under the PTWC’s Tsunami Watch.

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

The Dawn Of A New Beginning: NHK World’s Newest Resident Meteorologist Robert Speta Debuts

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Meteoric Leap, Empowering More People Across Asia Pacific, World

Iloilo City, Philippines, 09April 2012, (1430Z)–Long before I was entrusted this humbling experience of being an author here on Westernpacificweather.com, I have been amazed with the way Meteorologist Robert Speta was doing his Tropical Updates focusing more on Western Pacific Region for the last two (2) years.  There ain’t no other “American” guy you can find online that does these humbling stuffs and giving more emphasis on Asia’s weather but him.  His profound dedication and sheer honesty to his craft, and worth mentioning beyond his being accessibly friendly nature and blessed with the knowledge and proper training, there could be no doubt, he will do great wonders and an asset to NHK World’s sentinel of equally sensible and great team of forecasters we ought to see on television, heard on the radio and online.

Little did I know that Mr. Speta is a Broadcast and Operational Meteorologist rolled into one.  I could still remember his helpful video feeds from his website especially during times of great need like an approaching Typhoon about to affect my country, the Philippines back in 2011.

Additionally, he had seven (7) years of service with the United States Navy (USNavy), and now, he is engaged in anchoring the weather segment broadcast in Japan’s top-rating Newsline at NHK World Headquaters in Tokyo, effective today, 09 April 2012, Monday.

On 29 March 2012, I got an invite from Mr. Speta to join him in his vision of providing adequate information relative to what he loved of doing as a goal-oriented guy from Buffalo, New York in the USA.  Mr. Speta, where most of his friends call him, “Rob,” was no less like a young gun who wanted to make the world a safer, better place for the rest of us.

Mr. Speta, based on his career portfolio, is a seasoned, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Meteorologist, who loved to carry on his mission by educating more and more people about the working relationship between climatic variables and effective understanding of what weather will be in the coming days, or what could be the areas affected by a singularly important aspect of life most of us do not fully comprehend but does form part an integral thread of our way of living.  It was beyond one’s dreams that brought a throng of people line into a particular calling.

Challenges Ahead

Time could only be a constant determinant of what’s to come for I was about to embark into a new dimension, a beginning of what I do best–writing articles that could provide credible, comprehensive information on what’s been happening around us, giving more weight on the study of Climatic dynamism and tropical cyclogenesis which affects the Western Pacific since time immemorial.

I am no professional in the study of meteorology, but with Meteorologist Speta at the helm of this vessel, I know we will go farther and reach ever closer to more people that deserve nothing less but dependable and adequate ideas and workable truths in today’s relatively unstable and elaborately extreme weather.

A good friend, a brother in the Philippines, shared his wisdom, in the person of Michael Williams, Sr. said to me on this day,“I take anything I associate myself with very seriously.  It only takes ONE good screw up to ruin a reputation, thus in many times, it cannot be recovered.”

In the light of these development, I also would like to thank Mr. Speta for the trust and continued support on my works here on Westernpacificweather.com, and considering that this could be this generation’s best, by far, in the last eleven (11) days that I have been engaged in this job, we are largely being viewed back home in the Philippines and abroad, especially in Malaysia via team mate and admin for this site, a fellow author and contributor in the person of whiz kid Francis Chuah and my fellow “Kababayan,” Ian Patrick Malejana, now based in Long Island, New York, USA.  These are smart people, make no mistake, they will deliver the goods the way it should be–piping hot, in-depth analysis and no nonsense.

Here are some of today’s cut on tube in case you missed today’s broadcast.  Enjoy as we did this afternoon at around 1720PM-JST, 0920Z (0520PM-PHL) during his first broadcast LIVE on air at posh NHK World Studios in NHK HQ in Tokyo, Japan:

Fig. 1.0 "Live on NHK World Studios in Tokyo, Meteorologist Robert Speta made an entry about the blossoming Sakura trees in Kanto Region, as JMA has confirmed its full bloom two days ago. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

Fig. 2.0 "On this screen indicate a possible flood potential for the regions of Yellow Sea bordering Korean Peninsula, that could spawn thunderstorm activity that could adversely affect the scheduled Ballistic/Rocket launch by Pyongyang, NoKor on 12 April and 16 April 2012. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

In today’s weather forecast, discussed the likelihood of yet another wet and windy weather by late Tuesday, 10 April 2012 across Western edge of Southern Japan, explains further the areas to be hit by another “Spring Storm,” this week, and advised locales to bring weather implements as a sort of protection against the elements, pointing out the possible rains across Southern China, that could spill into Yellow Sea as a developing Trough of Low could yet again surge into Sea of Japan, though not as intense as last week that hit Japan.

Moving on to the other side of the Pacific Basin, he laments of the incoming moisture coming from a huge Trough of Low along the Northwestern regions of the United States, and a brewing severe storm off the Southern regions, where a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity and golf, tennis-ball sized hail pound the Mid-states of Oklahoma, possibly “Tornadic” activity in neighboring states as well into the next coming days and a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity which is not a good situation out there.

In Europe, across the Baltic Region, an area of Low is fast approaching the British Isles.  Spain, however was hit by record drought conditions. Rains across Barcelona, Spain could provide a respite from the excessive heat as a surging area of Low that could cause Polar air into the Baltic Seas, further plunging temperatures across Europe and wet and windy conditions in the coming days.  Portions of the Netherlands to the South, and Norway to the North could be expecting some wet and windy weather associated with the system.  Italy could be getting some pounding rains and gusty wind conditions as an area of Low also lingers a bit off greater Italy and the Mediterranean countrysides.  Some thundery showers are also in the forecast.
To give you guys a gist of what’s to come, I give you Robert Speta, a fulfilled meteorologist ready to take on the world’s challenges!

Join us as we take the center stage using the most credible insights!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)