Tag Archives: hokkaido

NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Deep Low Over Japan Moving Away, Rough Conditions Persist Over Vladivostok; Extreme Tropical Heat In Philippine Archipelago, Malaysian Peninsula Surges On

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Deep “Low” Ushers Bad Weather Across Japan, Korean Peninsula & Vladivostok

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Earlier on Sunday, 22 April 2012, a massive “Low” forges forward off the Yellow Sea, and into West & Southern Japanese Islands, bringing heavy rains and sporadic thunderstorms which has become severe in Naha, Okinawa and the Ryukus Region, and Muroto, just Southwest of Tokushima. The severe weather has also caused disruptions in transportation as dangerous conditions such as flooding potential and occurrence of “Tornadic” activity was not ruled out by the local authorities.

According to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the deep “Low” Pressure system was causing windy conditions and rough seas, along the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The highest winds were recorded near Ryukus Islands, where based on ASCAT wind analysis, I have been observing that top winds have reached to 50 kt (92 km/hr) at most, with stronger gusts as the system continues to drape the Japanese mainland with much convective clouds, and trailing along with it was an active “Front,” anchored along another area of “Low,” just off Hainan Island, in China.

JMA has been issuing several watches on the severe thunderstorm activity affecting the Ryukus Islands, and some parts of Fukui Region, and in Tsuruga, where the agency has been watching a potential for a “Tornado,” of which they have been issuing a “Level 1,” advisory there since 1500-JST (0600Z/0200PM-PHL/MAL).

Heavy precipitation was being observed also especially along Naha, in Okinawa Island, and in Ryukus Islands, wherein rainfall accumulation has reached to 150 mm to 200 mm in just 2 hours of intense rainfall brought about by the system. There were no reports of damage to property or injuries associated with the storm in the region.

The storm has been especially slow in its track Northeastwards, but remains “Quasi-stationary,” at the moment along Vladivostok, the Russian Federation territory.

Fig. 1.0 "JMA's nowcasting precipitation at 1515-JST (0215PM-PHL/MAL). Image Courtesy: JMA, Text: Weatherguy Adonis."

High Pressure Ridge Pushes “Front,” To Dip South, New “Spring Storm” In Progress

The said “Front,” was being forecast to move through along the Okinawa Region within the next 12 hrs, pushing the “Low,” clear off Japan’s West and Central Prefectures by early Monday afternoon. Having said that, the “Front,” was being pushed ultimately Southwards by a dominant “Ridge of High Pressure,” that has been persistent for the last four (4) days along the East Chinese mainland, causing the spillage into the Northwestern periphery of Luzon and the Taiwanese Islands, in between Batanes Island Group and the Babuyan Channel to the North of the Philippines. This has been the reason for a surge of cooler air mass from the West Philippine Sea, a.k.a. “South China Sea,” which has been oscillating some thunderstorms across the Northernmost towns of Luzon, especially along Cagayan and Isabela Provinces to the East, and the grand Cordilleras Region to the Center of Luzon, flanked by Zambales to the West, and Manila in the farther South of it.

As the sweltering heat continues to take its hold across Southeast Asian Region, I have been positive in noting that in the coming 2-3 days, another “Spring Storm,” is forecast to head towards Eastern China, and through Tuesday or Wednesday into the new working week, the Korean Peninsula and Japanese coast could expect another round of severe weather and dipping temperatures especially in higher elevations, more specifically in Sapporo and Hokkaido’s Northernmost tip this week.

Fig. 2.0 "A graphical analysis I made to interpret more closely the weather situation across the Philippine archipelago at 1401Z (1001PM-PHL/MAL). Image Courtesy: NRL Mry, Text: Weatherguy Adonis."

Meantime, Hong Kong could yet again experience another week of severe weather as two (2) brewing storms off Central China has been developing for the last 24 hrs, and this could again spill some exceptionally supercharged atmosphere in the territory in the coming days, which the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been closely monitoring its progress.

Flood Warnings For Mindanao, Scattered Thunderstorms Underway 

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), based in Quezon City, Philippines has been issuing a warning on potential flooding along Mindanao, as the trailing effects of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the prevailing High Pressure affecting Luzon. This was being reflected in their 0900Z (0500PM-PHL/MAL) advisory on Saturday, 22 April 2012, which the agency did not made mention of a surging “Front,” emanating from mainland China, which could spell some respite from the searing heat that has yet jumped to 38.9C on the same day in Tuguegarao City, in Cagayan Province, and Manila sizzled at 36C, which are based on the highest reading that was obtained at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL).

Based on the runs that I have been focused on, the surging “Cold air,” mass from the mainland China, colliding with the “Warm front,” from the East of the country could spell the “Orographic lift,” that could spawn some localized thunderstorm activity and increase convection along the coastlines of Palawan, Southern Visayas and Mindanao, and also along the West Philippine Sea, just West of Southern Tagalog Provinces and the Greater Manila Area (GMA) later today.

I am positive on this because the odds are getting better for “Rain showers,” in spots across the country’s Western seaboards and the Eastern coast of Mindanao and Visayas, specifically in Leyte-Samar Provinces, too. We’ll see about it later today when it finally happens.

Fig. 3.0 "An ominous thunderstorm activity which I took photo of on Sunday, 22 April 2012, 24-ft high above the ground over Iloilo City, Philippines. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

The problem I was encountering for almost two (2) years now is the absence of PAGASA’s Doppler Radar Imagery, which I have been consistently been campaigning them to officially open the said facility to public access considering the fact that it was bound to serve the greater purpose of educating most of the 92-million strong Filipinos in the country. I really don’t know why the weather bureau hides it from public eye.

I am calling the attention of the current administration, being led by His Excellency Benigno S. Aquino III, of the Philippine Republic, to look into this matter and forge a better organization within the system that governs the country’s weather bureau, whom enjoys a very unpopular reputation amongst majority of its constituency–the Filipino people deserve more from PAGASA, no more slump in forecasting capability, but an empowered workforce, better equipped agency with a primordial duty to protect its citizenry from the adverse effects of climatic challenges of perennial storms and recurring droughts.

Also, I have been monitoring the situation over Luzon, the rest of Southern Tagalog Regions for the last 48 hours, since we got some welcome rains here in Iloilo City on Saturday night, 22 April 2012, coupled with intense thunderstorm activity and rolling thunder across the horizon that could be heard from afar.

Fig. 4.0 "Thundery rains could be seen from afar, as Cb clouds hang low beneath the base of a developing thunderstorm anvil just overhead Iloilo City. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

Malaysia Is Never Far

Based on the Global Forecasting System (GFS), a lot of tropical rainfall could be persisting especially along the near-Equatorial Regions of Asia-Pacific in the coming days, which include our fellow weather caster, Francis Chuah, from Kedah, Malaysia’s Northwesternmost Region is currently located.

Mr. Chuah has been reporting that at around 1300Z (0900PM-PHL/MAL), there has been lightning and some thunder rolling through the night sky, and as the night progresses further, at around 1545Z (1145PM-PHL/MAL), rains have finally fallen in his location. This was also confirmed by their Malaysian Meteorological Department (MalayMet), through Doppler Radar Imagery.

At the onset, there has been two (2) separate “Lows” affecting Malaysia Peninsula and Borneo, which could induce more tropical rains within the next 2-3 days in the forecast. Summer heat can become unbearable especially between early 0200Z (1000AM-PHL/MAL), and 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), which are mostly affecting the “Diurnal” episode of the convective processes of condensation and evaporation rate per area, that also would depend on the prevailing “Warm air,” and “Cold air” masses that collides which should provide an “Orographic lifting,” that provides the formation of Cb clouds, between low and high elevations. This process also allows the air masses to rise and cool down almost instantaneously as it generates “Humidity,” which result to “Precipitable” cloud formations, and on the most favourable of all conditions, it yields what we call, “Rainfall.”

Fig. 5.0 "A Doppler Radar Imagery of Malaysia Peninsula and Borneo indicating scattered tropical rain showers evidenced in the map. Image Courtesy: MalayMet."

Meantime, this has been your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

Western Pacific Remains Quiet, Brewing Trough Of Low Next Week For Japan

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Low Pressure System Stalls Off Sea Of Okhotsk

Iloilo City, Philippines, 06 April 2012, (0730Z)–As the Christian world celebrate the Life, the Suffering and eventual Resurrection of our Saviour, Jesus Christ in the observance of Lent, Springtime in Japan couldn’t be more beautiful with plum blossoms across the country.  

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) confirms today that the Cherry Blossoms in Tokyo is on its full bloom.  Despite the raging “Spring Storm,” last 03-04 April 2012 across Japan, settling weather conditions have been keeping the skies clear, with some sporadic cold conditions as the blustery winds from the Sea of Japan and some snow accumulations have been observed along Japan’s Northernmost region especially in higher elevations.  The area of “Low,” to date, continues to spawn moisture ahead of what’s left behind by the massive system that moved clear off Japan a few days ago.  The said system continues to linger off the Sea of Okhotsk and remains almost stationary according to JMA.  Satellite observations has confirmed the persistent colder region churning the seas, possibly blowing snow and rough conditions along the Northeastern seaboards of Hokkaido which bounds with the Kuril Islands.

Fig. 1.0 "The Sakura Blossoms in Spring in Setagaya-ku, Tokyo. JMA has said that today is the full bloom of these magnificent trees all over Tokyo. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

Fig. 2.0 "Desmond Speta playing around near Setagaya-ku, Tokyo with background of the beautiful Sakura trees blossoming in full today. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

Fig. 3.0 "a wide array of carefully nurtured Sakura trees blossoming in Tokyo gardens which prompts the arrival of Springtime in Kanto Region. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

A New Threat Later Next Week

In the coming week, another system could blow its way towards the Sea of Japan, as what the current European models I have referring to these past two (2) days.  A building area of “Low,” could yet again spell rainy conditions across the Western seaboards of Japan.  The said system is forecast to cross the Korean Peninsula come Tuesday next week, 10 April 2012 and traverse over the Sea of Japan and smack in the middle of it is the Honshu Region before reaching the Pacific side of Tohoku sometime mid-Wednesday and Thursday next week, while there were observations in Osaka and Honshu Region in Japan of having rains this afternoon.  Nevertheless, the overall weather condition across Japan will stay clear with some showers in spots.

Fig. 4.0 "NASA captured this imagery on 04 April 2012, which I clearly pointed out that the massive Spring Storm would continue to linger over the Sea of Okhotsk within the next 2-3 days after moving past Hokkaido on 06 April 2012. Image Courtesy: NASA."

Good Lenten Weather Across Philippines

The Ridge of High Pressure continues to linger along the Eastern coast of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces off mainland China, extending well into Formosa (Taiwan), which I would say, induce the weak Northeasterly flow across the Northern territory of Luzon, Philippines.  Having said that, the rest of Luzon should stay largely dry conditions, with less chances of rainfall all throughout the observance of Lent, while there will be localized thunderstorm activity mostly in the later afternoon hours after the grueling heat of the Sun, to which our yearly Christian penitence as part of the “Visita Iglesia,” rites have been in full swing since Tuesday.

Fig. 5.0 "A developing Frontal System is traversing Eastwards along the Jet Stream off East Chinese mainland, being pushed Southwards by a lingering Ridge of High Pressure. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

By large, the rest of Southern Tagalog and Bicol Region has been used to this hyper conditions of excessive heat during the summer, but make no mistake guys and gals in the country, there will be sporadic periods of rainfall especially in the late afternoon as surging moist air associated with the Easterlies coming from the East along the East Philippine Sea, associated with the weakening “La Niña” episode across the Central Pacific Basin.

Meteorologists from around the world has been saying that the ill-effects of the said weather phenomenon has already been over, but in my opinion, the effects could still be felt largely until the “Neutral” months of July and August of this year.

A Frontal System along Southern Chinese mainland has been observed for the last 24 hrs, and is forecast to traverse Eastwards along the Jet Stream off East China Sea as it is being pushed Southwards by a lingering Ridge of High Pressure, which result to clearer conditions along the Philippine archipelago this weekend with some showers too.

Fig. 6.0 "See the colours depicted on this map which indicates the intensity of the winds thru ASCAT pass across Western Pacific Region. The deeper shades of red and oranges indicate higher wind gusts, while the blue ones and greens signify milder conditions. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Lingering Floods Attributed To “02W/PAKHAR” 

Cambodia has been witnessing a post effects of the recently menacing Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” which made landfall in Southern Viet Nam City of Vung Tau.  The remnants of the said system has been feeding the flaring thunderstorms along the Thailand-Cambodia border which already, has resulted to unseasonable flooding.

This development is in contrast to Viet Nam’s case, because at the moment, it is still summer time and the Mekong River network has nor fully reached its critical point, which the farmers using the immense river system has been exceptionally glad to have running water to their fields, enough to sustain the hotter days ahead before the onset of the Typhoon season in later mid-May of this year.

Fig. 7.0 "The remnants of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lingers off Thailand-Cambobia border, where torrential rainfall has been causing localized flooding for the past 4 days. Strong fronts of thunderstorm activity generate severe weather across the region, despite the tropical moisture is expected to head Polewards. Image Courtesy: NASA."

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the Pacific and Oceania Basin.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 With data from JMA, HKO, NOAA, NASA, NRL Mry, Westernpacificweather.com and Typhoon2000.com
(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)