Tag Archives: Japan

Super Typhoon Nepartak Races Towards Taiwan

The first “Super Typhoon” of 2016 is now roaring its way north west Towards Taiwan this Wednesday ushering in the first threat of a land falling damaging typhoon in 2016.

Key Points –

 

  • The storm is expected to make landfall in Taiwan Thursday night in to Friday Morning, the exact location is still uncertain due to the synoptic layout and how the storm interacts with the mountains as it nears.
  • Damaging winds north of the storms track and flooding in the mountains of Taiwan will be the main issue.
  • Ishigaki and Miyako Jima should still watch it closely as the right side of the storm will swipe the islands bringing damaging winds.
  • THE STORM WILL NOT make landfall in the Philippines. Although the Batanes islands in the Luzon straight could see the rough weather. Plus the enhanced monsoon “Habagat” will bring heavy rainfall to Central Luzon through Visayas.
  • Okinawa Honto could see some gusty winds and heavy rains on Thursday and Friday due to the outer rain bands of the storm. Winds are not expected to top 50kts on the island so a slim chance of TCCORS changing.

 

What is it doing now?

It is currently intensifying in the classic “Philippine sea effect” way. A region of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures has allowed the storm to blow up from a weak Typhoon Tuesday morning to nearly a Cat 5 Wednesday morning.

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

The visible sat loop from Sunrise Wednesday morning shows incredible outflow from the storm, a well defined eye and a dangerous eye wall. Good news unlike previous storms in this area the size is not that large ranging only a few 100km across.

 

The Forecast Track

There is high confidence Nepartak will continue North West following the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands south of Japan. At this time there is also fair confidence that the storm WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN by Thursday night in to Friday morning.  The exact location is still now known though and as we have seen in the past the way a storm interacts with the mountains of Taiwan depending on how it comes on shore makes a incredible difference in how much rain falls and where it falls. This is why residents here should check for continued updates and also prepare regardless for typhoon Conditions.

track

The Strength Forecast

WMO forecasting agencies upped the strength forecast today with JTWC expecting a Category 5 typhoon by Thursday. JMA as well expects Nepartak to max out with winds over 250kph.

The wind  is enough to not only light objects around but also send heavier objects includes mopeds, trampolines, trees, and small cars.  MAKE SURE TO SECURE EVERYTHING.

Nepartak

The rainfall as always will be a major issue if the storm tracks closer to Taiwan. Even if it skirts the island rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

96hr

Landslides are always a major problem with land falling storms in Taiwan, often coastal roads can be blocked and impassible especially just north of Hualien City along the east coast. The photo below shows where the highest threats of flooding and landslides are located.

landslide threat

Take a look at the video below from 2015 when Typhoon Soudelor hit the island.

Preparation.

 

Here is a bare minimum list of the things that I personally keep in my house at all times:

– Flashlights

– Spare batteries

– Groceries plus for 4 days

– Radio

– Bottled water

–  Bungie cords and/or tie down material, (including trampolines, the US Military most favorite object to have launched across the island of Okinawa)

 

Of course this is a short list and just a start of preparations. A longer explanation can be found here.

 

The storm should stay west of the main island of Okinawa but as mentioned before even a small shift east could mean an increase to Tropical storm strength winds. At this time though it does not look like damaging winds will be in Okinawa. That means no TCCORS for military there.

Even though Typhoon Neparak will stay south of Okinawa Japan there is still the chance of consistent rainfall and some strong storms associated with the mass of convection located north east of the storm. This will trail along with it pushing over the Ryuku islands through Friday.

okinawa

In the Philippines expect heavy rainfall to dominate from Wednesday to Friday in Visayas through much of Luzon. This includes the Metro areas of Cebu and Manila.  Despite the fact typhoon Nepartak will not impact the area directly it will still enhance the south west monsoon ushering in a “habagat” as it is known in the Philippines.   Consistent rainfall associated with this type of event is known for causing urban flooding in the city and landslides along mountain sides in remote areas.

storm

Record Breaking Slow Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

We have seen one of the longest streaks with no Typhoons in Recorded history and also the second latest named storm to ever form in the basin this year.

 

Conditions have just not been favorable for storm development with high shear really tearing apart any storms that even had a idea of forming in to a named system. This has a lot to do with the dynamics in the West Pacicic and how the atmosphere has been changing from a El Nino State to a La Nina one. Regardless it sure has made for some unusually calm weather recently. Especially coming off of the record breaking 2015 Typhoon Season.

 

 

NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

27 April 2012 Western Pacific Weather Video Update

Warm air in Korea and Japan will be accompanied by some yellow sand blowing out of the Gobi desert this weekend. This will be making for some pollution in the atmosphere but for picture takers it will be producing nice sunsets. The tropics have quited down for

friday too, Invest 97W has fallen apart as wind shear tore it apart from the North. This area still needs watching though as it could bring some rainshowers to the Southern Philippines by early next week.

South East china is seeing rain showers this weekend as unstable weather starts to erupt there. Hong Kong in particular could be expierencing strong thunderstorms carrying gusty winds with it.

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

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