Tag Archives: jtwc
Fig. 1.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

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Fig. 3.0 "I made this Impression using the tools I have gathered depicting the interfering weather systems across Western Pacific Region that contributed to the demise of the former Category 1 Typhoon on 30 March 2012--a record for this year's Pacific Typhoon Season. Image Courtesy: NOAA."

BREAKING: Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Crashes Ashore, Cyclonic Weather In Progress Along Southeastern Viet Nam Coast Today

By:  Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Long Wait Now Over As Storm Makes Into Land Earlier Than Expected

Iloilo City, Philippines, 01 April 2012, (0830Z)–Finally, Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” made it to land.  The long wait is now over for most of the region weary of the situation so critical for millions of people in Viet Nam who were quite uncertain of their fate as a Tropical system threatened their way of life for the longest time.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been issuing maritime warnings in the advance of the tropical system for more than 3 days now since the storm has been at very slow pace, resulting to thousands of fishing vessels and maritime activities to a standstill.

Sea-going vessels were being ordered to stay away from the range of the storm, which other ships near the Spratlys archipelago to this day are still anchored due to the cyclonic weather that continues to persist along the East China Sea, closest to the center of where the chaotic seas never fail to persist.

Fig. 1.0 "Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam considerably over the past 12 hrs as it interacts with land mass before making landfall at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL). Image Courtesy: Digital-typhoon."

Land Interaction, Weak Inflow 

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” regained some of its intensity yesterday after reaching a “Diurnal Maximum,” which corresponds to a 24-hour cycle life of a tropical system and especially affected by the easing essential “Inflow” from the North of the South China Sea as the Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan,” in the Northern Region of Luzon, Philippines have provided such replenishment of favourable “Upper-level” push, sending much-needed moisture and momentum the past few days of its existence.

“Outflow” from the Southwestern quadrant of the system has been struggling to provide adequate moisture to fuel the increasingly exhausted source of energy–heat and humidity derived from the “Low-level winds,” that fairly provide constraint as regards to hostile 37-55 km/hr (20-30 kt) “Shearing environment,” which could prove fatal to tropical cyclones.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its analysis last night that the central convection that provide adequate banding within its LLCC was fair enough to support the theory that maintaining strength reaching 110 km/hr (60 kt) which average winds was about 101 km/hr (55 kt) along the Southwestern periphery of “02W/PAKHAR,” and “Atmospheric Pressure,” reaching to 988 hPa as indicated on their 1500Z issued bulletin last night, 31 March 2012.

fig. 2.0 "Vis Sat Imagery indicate the Eyewall of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR as shown crashes into Southern coast of Vung Tau, sending cyclonic weather along the storm's immediate path. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Despite this, and the relatively low “Shearing environment,”our system has continually lost steam, finally succumbed to lower OHC and the lack of good outflow and the existence of a blocking Subtropical Ridge to the Northeast of it, just over mainland China was a conclusive determinant for a true West to West-northwest track towards Southern Viet Nam–this sealed the fate of our system as it starts to dissipate over land as of posting.
Other Weather Systems Along Asia-Pacific

Since the La Niña-enhanced Easterlies have replaced the retreating “Monsoonal flow,” the source of such energy was snatched from our tropical system off the East China Sea two days ago, thus the weakening state of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” and the increasingly hostile oceanographic conditions, which I was referring to as the increasingly cooler “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC) along the coasts of Southern Viet Nam extending to the Northeast to the regions of Hainan Island, China.

Fig. 3.0 "I made this Impression using the tools I have gathered depicting the interfering weather systems across Western Pacific Region that contributed to the demise of the former Category 1 Typhoon on 30 March 2012--a record for this year's Pacific Typhoon Season. Image Courtesy: NOAA."

Also, a developing return of a moderate surge of the “Northeast Monsoon” was evident along the Northernmost edges of Northern Taiwan yesterday, this should be closely monitored especially in my country, the Philippines, where the “Wetter-than-normal” conditions generated widespread flooding across the archipelago due to the prevailing influence of the easing “La Niña Event.”

Well-defined LLCC Before Making Landfall

Such ill-effects effected a simmering heat generated temperature along the immediate path of the tropical system, thus a weakening trend has caused a significant loss of ambient conditions for further development.  This episode has wrought a disastrous result on the system’s life cycle from which adequate energy source, right variations of atmospheric values and warmer “Ocean Heat Content,” (OHC) are recipe for a perfect environment for tropical cyclones to undergo “Explosive Deepening” (ED) or otherwise known as “Rapid Intensification” (RI).

In the case of our tropical system at bar, there have been lacking variables that has degraded its size in meteorological aspect, which I would refer to its central pressure, diameter, wind intensity and the most important of all is the existence of warm sea surface temperature.

Accelerating Pace Towards Coast, Hits Land

An observation prior to its making landfall today, 01 April 2012, I have been observing that the system has jogged a bit faster on a Westerly to West-northwest trajectory towards Vung Tau, less than 30 km East-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City at around 2032z (432AM-PHL).

The JTWC pegged the system before making landfall at 75 km/hr (40 kt) sustained winds, and gusts reaching 101 km/hr (55 kt), with Central Pressure of 988 hPa, heading generally West at 11 km/hr. 

The latest data I have come acrossed this afternoon, at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL) and 0632z (0232PM-PHL), as evidenced by Vis Sat loop, a well-defined “Eye,” was evident and a “Central Dense Overcast,” where the intense winds along and heaviest rains are present was clearly seen wrapping the “Eyewall,” crashed into shore along the Southeastern coast of Viet Nam near Vung Tau.

Fig. 4.0 "A regional representation to clearly show the underlying factors that accelerated the landfall time frame of 02W/PAKHAR, indeed a formidable tropical system that lasted since the last 2.3 weeks as former Tropical Disturbance 96W on 17 March 2012. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Immediately after the advancing Western Quadrant of the system moved past the coast, the ferocity of the winds interacts with land mass, which ultimately cuts the main source of moisture and heat derived from the Sea, and “Land interaction,” would mean winds abruptly makes “Friction” with terrain and “Drier Air Mass,” predominantly present on land, which could also overwhelm the river capacity, and pose a critical threat along the River basins, especially the heavily silted Mekong River system that could result to massive landslides and flash flooding event, not to mention the high surf conditions that could obliterate the coastal communities especially in those highly vulnerable infrastructures that tend to be swept away by strong sea currents and rising tidal surges associated with a “Storm Surge,” or abnormal rising sea levels during an approaching storm along the low-lying coast.
More details later tonight. If you are in Viet Nam and has invaluable data about the storm, please send us your comments and thoughts.  We appreciate it but stay safe and keep dry! =)

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, NRL Mry and Typhoon2000.ph

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

 

 

Fig. 1.0 "I made this impression I got from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center through Rob Gutro's article at NASA Hurricane Page.  I give credit to the efforts made by NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce. Thanks a million, guys!"

02W/PAKHAR Weakens To Tropical Storm, Threatens To Make Landfall In Viet Nam On Sunday

By:  Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

 

Once Formidable Storm Weakens

Iloilo City, Philippines, 31 March 2012, (0400Z)–Category 1 Typhoon no more.  Our tropical system, “02W/PAKHAR” was a Typhoon no more as the winds died down gradually weakening its core, and the intensity readings went down to Tropical Storm threshold this morning.  Winds near its center was about 75 km/hr (40 kt) and gusting to 111 km/hr (60 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa.  Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” was located near 9.6N-109.9E or approximately 376.3 km South-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.  I am considering the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale measurement at the moment.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) however pegged the system to be slightly stronger that of the JMA measurement at 111 km/hr (60 kt) with higher gusts reaching 140 km/hr (75 kt), making it a “Strong Tropical Storm,” almost at “Category 1 Typhoon” threshold by scale.

At the onset, the the prevailing “Upper level winds” are consistently favourable for the system to maintain its strength, despite the variation of existence of some drier air mass coming from its Southwestern periphery and a building Subtropical Ridge (STR) that should steer the system generally Westwards later tonight before making land fall along the coast of Viet Nam later tomorrow, 01 April 2012 at about nightfall according to some Numerical models that I have been checking out from time to time.

Fig. 1.0 "Typhoon 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam as convective banding tries to consolidate. A building STR should steer it towards Viet Nam coast sometime Sunday evening. Image Credit: CIRA."

Nevertheless, the oceanographic conditions are in aide for a slow but steady intensification phase of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” as it continues to stay offshore, away from land mass, but its outer bands have already arrived in advance since yesterday so flooding should not be a question anymore.

Meteorological Agencies Scale Up 02W/PAKHAR’s Intensity

There might be some confusion around here as regards to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) definition of a “Tropical Storm” versus a full-pledge “Typhoon,” which the American models indicate, and in strong agreement with other interrelated Meteorological Agency across the Asia-Pacific Region.  By no means necessary, a “Tropical Storm” using the measurement scale of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) based in Tokyo, Japan, under JMA’s operation, rap it up to between 62 km/hr (34 kt) and 88 km/hr (47 kt), and it all begins to come into mind that there are deep variations to this with that of a full-pledge “Typhoon,” that translates to a higher wind acceleration reaching above 118 km/hr (64 kt).

In the light of these, it clearly indicate a substantial difference with the interpretation of wind-average readings that uses a 10-minute wind average intervals.  The JMA uses this in terms of wind intensity sustained within the 10-minute period, as per World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regulation based in Geneva, Switzerland.

In most cases, this requirement are being observed by most of the weather agencies from around the world.  The 10-minute average we call it, points to a system that analyze the winds sustained within a Tropical Cyclone at a given time at a height of 10.0 m (33 ft), to which our state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also utilizes in reaching for a consensus in the event of a Tropical Cyclone threatening the Philippines within its Philippine Area of Responsibility” (PAR).

Fig. 2.0 "An impression I have made using the Vis Sat Imagery over the Western Pacific as shown, the weakened circulation along the East China Sea with evident convective banding that is occurring in aide of the system. To the far right, huge thunderstorms spawned by a passing Front pushes the La Niña-Easterlies well into Eastern Philippines. Image Credit: Digital-typhoon."

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) based in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island, USA uses another methodology, the “Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale,”  now this is anchored on the actual wind speed acceleration averaged over a 1-minute period, at 10 m (33 ft) above the ground.

Fig. 3.0 "MLSP readings indicate the confined vorticity remains offshore, and stronger gust constrained along the Southern edge of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR at the moment. Image Credit: CIRA."

One’s failure to comprehend these variations add to the growing confusion which agencies of the two should prevail.  I hope putting up this issue now give due understanding of the difference between the readings, even I to date tend to miss some of this, frankly speaking!

Will Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Again Intensify?

The answer is a resounding yes, considering the existence of low shearing environment and the favourable “Sea Surface Temperature” (SST) across the East China Sea.  I am not using the word, West Philippine Sea, or a.k.a. South China Sea because the matter now is beyond our territorial seas (Chuckle).

Since the system has reached its peak so to speak, in the meteorological aspect, we call it “Diurnal Maximum,” as indicated by the JTWC in its 2100Z bulletin, wherein a certain Tropical Cyclone has reached its peak intensity for a 24-hour period.  This refers also on the temperature that occurs after midday which maximum heat can be obtained in a considerable time, and vis-a-vis, the minimum before the Sun hits the horizon early in the morning.

In addition to this, the various factors could also be attributed to change in relative humidity at a given time, the clouds that feed and wrap around the convective towering cloud tops or the anvil thunderstorms that give these Tropical Cyclone a finite source of moisture and adequate amount of heat, equivalent to energy.

Fig. 4.0 "A NOAA eTrap indicate the rainfall totals within a 24-hr period as the system persists at East China Sea. Image Credit: NOAA."

Talk about energy, the Sun and the heat radiated from the surface of the Sea can also affect a storm’s life, and oh, before I forget, the precipitation or the rains that rise and fall within the clouds, it’s called “Condensation” and the rate of “Evaporation.”  These are all essential to a Tropical system.  The stages that undergone feeds into a system like a conveyor belt, which I believe it could have definitive impact on the “Atmospheric Pressure,” that can only be found inside the core of the Tropical Cyclone.

Fig. 5.0 "I made this impression I got from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center through Rob Gutro's article at NASA Hurricane Page. I give credit to the efforts made by NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce. Thanks a million, guys!"

To what extent did our storm lose steam? We will find out later this afternoon if our discussion here of a gradual intensification phase holds water!  In the meantime,  I am signing off for more of these a bit later tonight.  Nonetheless, we’ll all keep a close eye on this one as it maintains its course, though stationary at times, it has been generating a lot of precipitation back here in the Philippines for quite some time now.

Also, my fellow “Kababayans” in flood-ravaged towns of Mindoro Occidental, Bicol Region and parts of Capiz nearest to my location should take a look into the upcoming thunderheads that hover above us.  Right now I have been observing large thunderstorm anvils shooting into the atmosphere sending rumbling thunder ahead of the thunderstorms that could come at any moment soon!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, NRL Mry and Typhoon2000.ph

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)