Tag Archives: mindanao

BREAKING: 29 Apr 2012 Tropical Update on Developing Tropical Low 97W Off Southeastern Mindanao

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Invest 97W Sprung To Life, Torrential Rainfall Threatens Eastern Mindanao

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post at http://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5)  to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."


Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,” should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mm rainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,” that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Low Pressure Eyes Japan Once More, Welcome Rains Give Respite On Extreme Heat Across Philippines

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Another Low Heading For Japan

Iloilo City, Philippines, 21 April 2012, (1240Z)–As Northern town of Hong Kong reels from the ill-effects of a “Tornadic” activity yesterday, 20 April 2012, which according to reports, several livestock and damages to property caused by the severe weather and damaging winds associated with a deep Low Pressure system that has yet again set its eyes on Western Japan as of posting.  Our meteorologist Robert Speta has made his analysis on the system earlier today, that “A deep low pressure system is now cruising across Korea and on to Japan today after bringing nasty weather to South Eastern China this past week. Even a report of a tornado occurred just North of Hong Kong.”

Currently, the Low Pressure system has already traversed over the Yellow Sea, just over the edge of Eastern China, that borders along Western seaboards of North and South Korea.

A recent ASCAT wind analysis yielding a 50+kt winds (92 km/hr) near the Ryukus Islands along the Southernmost tip of the Japanese Island chain. Early this evening, a “Front,” has been developing just moving past over Hong Kong, and has now propagated and surging along the Northernmost tip of Taiwan, and heading Northeastwards well into the North Philippine Sea.

Fig. 1.0 "Low Pressure system barreling through Sea of Japan, rest of Western seaboards of Japan through Sunday. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

A Ridge of High Pressure has been consistently pushing the Low system well into the Korean Peninsula overnight, with it are strong gusty conditions, severe thunderstorm activity and high seas. Meantime, the Western seaboards of Japan are now on watches for the incoming storm, just two weeks since the last one has hit the region.

Despite the system could bring nasty weather into the Japanese coast into Sunday, the authorities there have been warning its residents of dangerous sea and driving conditions ahead of the storm.

Welcome Rains, Thunderstorms Douse Unrelenting Heat Across Philippines

In the recent tropical activity along the Philippine archipelago, the sweltering heat was just staggering for the last 5 days, reaching to 38C & 39C in the country’s Northernmost tip of Cagayan, where in Tuguegarao City alone, the highest temperature was recorded at 39C on Friday, which made the sunnier days in Manila has been an uncomfortable 36C, making it more unbearable for most of the Filipinos.

Fig. 2.0 "A brief snapshot I made of the ongoing thundery rains persisting along Western Visayas tonight. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

On Saturday morning, 21 April 2012, an area of large convective precipitation has been earmarked to bring welcome rains along the Eastern sections of Mindanao, parts of Southern Visayas, and as we have confirmed today, we got rains here in Western Visayas region, where at around 1000Z (0600PM-PHL), thunderstorms loom over Iloilo City where I am located at the moment, and neighboring Iloilo Provincial towns to include Guimaras Island, which celebrate its merry “Annual Manggahan Festival,” on 15-22 April 2012.

The rains have been quite generous tonight, coupled with frequent thunder and flashes of lightning across the darkest of nights. I know that it won’t last until midnight but at least it has successfully provided some respite from the heat. I should say a lot of people are happier tonight.

The brewing storm was being observed since 0600Z (0200PM-PHL) today, there were feedback from Negros Island and Nueva Valencia, in Guimaras Island, that they too were getting some rains. That I thought strongly that rains could come our way and it did cooled the environs tonight.

The current wave of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has been pushing the precipitation well into a West to West-northwest trajectory across the Cental regions of the country well into Palawan Islands.

I do hope and pray that Luzon too will have its fair share of moisture through Sunday and Monday in the coming workweek as another “Tropical Wave,” has been spotted along a line of thunderstorms in the Pacific Ocean.

Meantime, this has been your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)