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BREAKING: 29 Apr 2012 Tropical Update on Developing Tropical Low 97W Off Southeastern Mindanao

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Invest 97W Sprung To Life, Torrential Rainfall Threatens Eastern Mindanao

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post at http://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5)  to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."


Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,” should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mm rainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,” that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

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NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)