Tag Archives: philippines

The Dawn Of A New Beginning: NHK World’s Newest Resident Meteorologist Robert Speta Debuts

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Meteoric Leap, Empowering More People Across Asia Pacific, World

Iloilo City, Philippines, 09April 2012, (1430Z)–Long before I was entrusted this humbling experience of being an author here on Westernpacificweather.com, I have been amazed with the way Meteorologist Robert Speta was doing his Tropical Updates focusing more on Western Pacific Region for the last two (2) years.  There ain’t no other “American” guy you can find online that does these humbling stuffs and giving more emphasis on Asia’s weather but him.  His profound dedication and sheer honesty to his craft, and worth mentioning beyond his being accessibly friendly nature and blessed with the knowledge and proper training, there could be no doubt, he will do great wonders and an asset to NHK World’s sentinel of equally sensible and great team of forecasters we ought to see on television, heard on the radio and online.

Little did I know that Mr. Speta is a Broadcast and Operational Meteorologist rolled into one.  I could still remember his helpful video feeds from his website especially during times of great need like an approaching Typhoon about to affect my country, the Philippines back in 2011.

Additionally, he had seven (7) years of service with the United States Navy (USNavy), and now, he is engaged in anchoring the weather segment broadcast in Japan’s top-rating Newsline at NHK World Headquaters in Tokyo, effective today, 09 April 2012, Monday.

On 29 March 2012, I got an invite from Mr. Speta to join him in his vision of providing adequate information relative to what he loved of doing as a goal-oriented guy from Buffalo, New York in the USA.  Mr. Speta, where most of his friends call him, “Rob,” was no less like a young gun who wanted to make the world a safer, better place for the rest of us.

Mr. Speta, based on his career portfolio, is a seasoned, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Meteorologist, who loved to carry on his mission by educating more and more people about the working relationship between climatic variables and effective understanding of what weather will be in the coming days, or what could be the areas affected by a singularly important aspect of life most of us do not fully comprehend but does form part an integral thread of our way of living.  It was beyond one’s dreams that brought a throng of people line into a particular calling.

Challenges Ahead

Time could only be a constant determinant of what’s to come for I was about to embark into a new dimension, a beginning of what I do best–writing articles that could provide credible, comprehensive information on what’s been happening around us, giving more weight on the study of Climatic dynamism and tropical cyclogenesis which affects the Western Pacific since time immemorial.

I am no professional in the study of meteorology, but with Meteorologist Speta at the helm of this vessel, I know we will go farther and reach ever closer to more people that deserve nothing less but dependable and adequate ideas and workable truths in today’s relatively unstable and elaborately extreme weather.

A good friend, a brother in the Philippines, shared his wisdom, in the person of Michael Williams, Sr. said to me on this day,“I take anything I associate myself with very seriously.  It only takes ONE good screw up to ruin a reputation, thus in many times, it cannot be recovered.”

In the light of these development, I also would like to thank Mr. Speta for the trust and continued support on my works here on Westernpacificweather.com, and considering that this could be this generation’s best, by far, in the last eleven (11) days that I have been engaged in this job, we are largely being viewed back home in the Philippines and abroad, especially in Malaysia via team mate and admin for this site, a fellow author and contributor in the person of whiz kid Francis Chuah and my fellow “Kababayan,” Ian Patrick Malejana, now based in Long Island, New York, USA.  These are smart people, make no mistake, they will deliver the goods the way it should be–piping hot, in-depth analysis and no nonsense.

Here are some of today’s cut on tube in case you missed today’s broadcast.  Enjoy as we did this afternoon at around 1720PM-JST, 0920Z (0520PM-PHL) during his first broadcast LIVE on air at posh NHK World Studios in NHK HQ in Tokyo, Japan:

Fig. 1.0 "Live on NHK World Studios in Tokyo, Meteorologist Robert Speta made an entry about the blossoming Sakura trees in Kanto Region, as JMA has confirmed its full bloom two days ago. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

Fig. 2.0 "On this screen indicate a possible flood potential for the regions of Yellow Sea bordering Korean Peninsula, that could spawn thunderstorm activity that could adversely affect the scheduled Ballistic/Rocket launch by Pyongyang, NoKor on 12 April and 16 April 2012. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

In today’s weather forecast, discussed the likelihood of yet another wet and windy weather by late Tuesday, 10 April 2012 across Western edge of Southern Japan, explains further the areas to be hit by another “Spring Storm,” this week, and advised locales to bring weather implements as a sort of protection against the elements, pointing out the possible rains across Southern China, that could spill into Yellow Sea as a developing Trough of Low could yet again surge into Sea of Japan, though not as intense as last week that hit Japan.

Moving on to the other side of the Pacific Basin, he laments of the incoming moisture coming from a huge Trough of Low along the Northwestern regions of the United States, and a brewing severe storm off the Southern regions, where a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity and golf, tennis-ball sized hail pound the Mid-states of Oklahoma, possibly “Tornadic” activity in neighboring states as well into the next coming days and a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity which is not a good situation out there.

In Europe, across the Baltic Region, an area of Low is fast approaching the British Isles.  Spain, however was hit by record drought conditions. Rains across Barcelona, Spain could provide a respite from the excessive heat as a surging area of Low that could cause Polar air into the Baltic Seas, further plunging temperatures across Europe and wet and windy conditions in the coming days.  Portions of the Netherlands to the South, and Norway to the North could be expecting some wet and windy weather associated with the system.  Italy could be getting some pounding rains and gusty wind conditions as an area of Low also lingers a bit off greater Italy and the Mediterranean countrysides.  Some thundery showers are also in the forecast.
To give you guys a gist of what’s to come, I give you Robert Speta, a fulfilled meteorologist ready to take on the world’s challenges!

Join us as we take the center stage using the most credible insights!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

Western Pacific Remains Quiet, Brewing Trough Of Low Next Week For Japan

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Low Pressure System Stalls Off Sea Of Okhotsk

Iloilo City, Philippines, 06 April 2012, (0730Z)–As the Christian world celebrate the Life, the Suffering and eventual Resurrection of our Saviour, Jesus Christ in the observance of Lent, Springtime in Japan couldn’t be more beautiful with plum blossoms across the country.  

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) confirms today that the Cherry Blossoms in Tokyo is on its full bloom.  Despite the raging “Spring Storm,” last 03-04 April 2012 across Japan, settling weather conditions have been keeping the skies clear, with some sporadic cold conditions as the blustery winds from the Sea of Japan and some snow accumulations have been observed along Japan’s Northernmost region especially in higher elevations.  The area of “Low,” to date, continues to spawn moisture ahead of what’s left behind by the massive system that moved clear off Japan a few days ago.  The said system continues to linger off the Sea of Okhotsk and remains almost stationary according to JMA.  Satellite observations has confirmed the persistent colder region churning the seas, possibly blowing snow and rough conditions along the Northeastern seaboards of Hokkaido which bounds with the Kuril Islands.

Fig. 1.0 "The Sakura Blossoms in Spring in Setagaya-ku, Tokyo. JMA has said that today is the full bloom of these magnificent trees all over Tokyo. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

Fig. 2.0 "Desmond Speta playing around near Setagaya-ku, Tokyo with background of the beautiful Sakura trees blossoming in full today. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

Fig. 3.0 "a wide array of carefully nurtured Sakura trees blossoming in Tokyo gardens which prompts the arrival of Springtime in Kanto Region. Image Courtesy: Robert Speta."

A New Threat Later Next Week

In the coming week, another system could blow its way towards the Sea of Japan, as what the current European models I have referring to these past two (2) days.  A building area of “Low,” could yet again spell rainy conditions across the Western seaboards of Japan.  The said system is forecast to cross the Korean Peninsula come Tuesday next week, 10 April 2012 and traverse over the Sea of Japan and smack in the middle of it is the Honshu Region before reaching the Pacific side of Tohoku sometime mid-Wednesday and Thursday next week, while there were observations in Osaka and Honshu Region in Japan of having rains this afternoon.  Nevertheless, the overall weather condition across Japan will stay clear with some showers in spots.

Fig. 4.0 "NASA captured this imagery on 04 April 2012, which I clearly pointed out that the massive Spring Storm would continue to linger over the Sea of Okhotsk within the next 2-3 days after moving past Hokkaido on 06 April 2012. Image Courtesy: NASA."

Good Lenten Weather Across Philippines

The Ridge of High Pressure continues to linger along the Eastern coast of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces off mainland China, extending well into Formosa (Taiwan), which I would say, induce the weak Northeasterly flow across the Northern territory of Luzon, Philippines.  Having said that, the rest of Luzon should stay largely dry conditions, with less chances of rainfall all throughout the observance of Lent, while there will be localized thunderstorm activity mostly in the later afternoon hours after the grueling heat of the Sun, to which our yearly Christian penitence as part of the “Visita Iglesia,” rites have been in full swing since Tuesday.

Fig. 5.0 "A developing Frontal System is traversing Eastwards along the Jet Stream off East Chinese mainland, being pushed Southwards by a lingering Ridge of High Pressure. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

By large, the rest of Southern Tagalog and Bicol Region has been used to this hyper conditions of excessive heat during the summer, but make no mistake guys and gals in the country, there will be sporadic periods of rainfall especially in the late afternoon as surging moist air associated with the Easterlies coming from the East along the East Philippine Sea, associated with the weakening “La Niña” episode across the Central Pacific Basin.

Meteorologists from around the world has been saying that the ill-effects of the said weather phenomenon has already been over, but in my opinion, the effects could still be felt largely until the “Neutral” months of July and August of this year.

A Frontal System along Southern Chinese mainland has been observed for the last 24 hrs, and is forecast to traverse Eastwards along the Jet Stream off East China Sea as it is being pushed Southwards by a lingering Ridge of High Pressure, which result to clearer conditions along the Philippine archipelago this weekend with some showers too.

Fig. 6.0 "See the colours depicted on this map which indicates the intensity of the winds thru ASCAT pass across Western Pacific Region. The deeper shades of red and oranges indicate higher wind gusts, while the blue ones and greens signify milder conditions. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Lingering Floods Attributed To “02W/PAKHAR” 

Cambodia has been witnessing a post effects of the recently menacing Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” which made landfall in Southern Viet Nam City of Vung Tau.  The remnants of the said system has been feeding the flaring thunderstorms along the Thailand-Cambodia border which already, has resulted to unseasonable flooding.

This development is in contrast to Viet Nam’s case, because at the moment, it is still summer time and the Mekong River network has nor fully reached its critical point, which the farmers using the immense river system has been exceptionally glad to have running water to their fields, enough to sustain the hotter days ahead before the onset of the Typhoon season in later mid-May of this year.

Fig. 7.0 "The remnants of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lingers off Thailand-Cambobia border, where torrential rainfall has been causing localized flooding for the past 4 days. Strong fronts of thunderstorm activity generate severe weather across the region, despite the tropical moisture is expected to head Polewards. Image Courtesy: NASA."

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the Pacific and Oceania Basin.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 With data from JMA, HKO, NOAA, NASA, NRL Mry, Westernpacificweather.com and Typhoon2000.com
(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: 95P No More, Grows Further Into Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE, Nears Fiji Island’s Western Territory

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Nadi, Fiji Evacuates Its Citizens As Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE” Heads SSE’wards Towards The Coast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 02 April 2012, (0525Z)–Tenacious Tropical Disturbance “95P” now  a full-pledge Tropical Cyclone.  It traversed Vanuatu Islands, now accelerating towards Western edge of Fiji Island.

Yesterday, 01 April 2012, the Western Pacific had its eyes on Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” as it made landfall in Southern City of Vung Tau, Viet Nam just before 0620Z (1320PM-local), pummeled the coast with blinding rains and strong winds as it crashed onshore after it slightly intensified as indicated by a well-developed, “Eye” feature.  It fed on relatively warm waters off the coast of Viet Nam that bounds with the East China Sea.

Today, yet again, we are about to witness yet another feat in the current trend of increasingly intense “Tropical Cyclogenesis” across the South Pacific Basin with a potent storm, Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” as it heads ever dangerously closer to Western Fiji Island.  Already, the government officials in Capital Suva, has ordered massive evacuations of more than 7,000 of its citizens in Nadi, which is the Westernmost edge of the Island territory as torrential rains already caused flooding and could pose more threat to life and property.

Fig. 1.0 "A Vis Sat Imagery indicating a cyclonic weather in store for the flood-ravaged region of Nadi in the advance of the Eastern wedge of the outer bands from Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE. Image Courtesy: FNMOC/Navy"

Powerful Tropical System Heading Southwards

Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” was located to be at 19.2S-171.2E, or 663.5 km East-southeast of Nadi, Fiji at 2332Z (0732AM-PHL), with sustained wind reaching 65 km/hr (35 kt) and gusting near 93 km/hr (50 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa, and currently traversing over warm waters, which should catapult it over a favourable “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC), but the “Shearing environment” could be an issue and considering that the system is tracking more South-southeastwards to generally Southward motion for the last 6 hrs.

I won’t be quite surprised if after this posting, the system should have increased in intensity, considering a great deal of adequate “Inflow” from the Western Quadrant of the system and evidently well supported by a surging moisture from the South of it.

Generally, this system should become “Extratropical,”  in the coming 3-4 days ahead of this forecast.

Having said that, we’ll see hot it deteriorates the by the time as system gradually negotiates on cooler waters in the days to come.  This is the cause and effect all tropical systems are made of, they tend to peak and they die altogether when the conditions become “Hostile,” for further tropical development.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA) has issued warnings in consideration that the storm system could generate “Treacherous sea conditions,” as the cyclonic weather gets closer to Fiji Island later today.  Meteorologists in the agency also warned the coastal communities to be on alert for high surf conditions in the approach of the tempest and let it past.

The government in Suva also ordered its citizens to stay clear along the Western and Southern side of the Island territory and move to higher ground as rising sea levels whipped by Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” could endanger the coastal infrastructure.  “Storm Surges” are generated by these tropical systems and quite often if not mostly, this phenomena cause most deaths in a storm.

Fig. 2.0 "This demographic representation of the prevailing weather systems across the West Pacific and the South Pacific Basin. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Pesistent Ill-effects Of La Niña Surges On

Look no further along the Eastern side of the Philippines where a huge area of “Drier Air Mass” persists, this is because of the prevalence of the weak “La Niña,” event through 2nd half of this year.  Other meteorologists have ruled out the connection between the La Niña Phenomenon and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions in the Asia-Pacific Region, and what is happening at the onset is the effects of “Climatic Changes,” as the most abused aspect of our environment. I am no skeptic but, I’d say, it ain’t through at all. We still feel its ill-effects to date and that’s my opinion where I stand firm to my principles that this adverse period of “Climatic” conditions should prevail well into the “Neutral” months starting on late June-August of 2012.

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the world!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)



With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, NRL Mry, Westernpacificweather.com and Typhoon2000.ph


(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Crashes Ashore, Cyclonic Weather In Progress Along Southeastern Viet Nam Coast Today

By:  Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Long Wait Now Over As Storm Makes Into Land Earlier Than Expected

Iloilo City, Philippines, 01 April 2012, (0830Z)–Finally, Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” made it to land.  The long wait is now over for most of the region weary of the situation so critical for millions of people in Viet Nam who were quite uncertain of their fate as a Tropical system threatened their way of life for the longest time.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been issuing maritime warnings in the advance of the tropical system for more than 3 days now since the storm has been at very slow pace, resulting to thousands of fishing vessels and maritime activities to a standstill.

Sea-going vessels were being ordered to stay away from the range of the storm, which other ships near the Spratlys archipelago to this day are still anchored due to the cyclonic weather that continues to persist along the East China Sea, closest to the center of where the chaotic seas never fail to persist.

Fig. 1.0 "Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam considerably over the past 12 hrs as it interacts with land mass before making landfall at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL). Image Courtesy: Digital-typhoon."

Land Interaction, Weak Inflow 

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” regained some of its intensity yesterday after reaching a “Diurnal Maximum,” which corresponds to a 24-hour cycle life of a tropical system and especially affected by the easing essential “Inflow” from the North of the South China Sea as the Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan,” in the Northern Region of Luzon, Philippines have provided such replenishment of favourable “Upper-level” push, sending much-needed moisture and momentum the past few days of its existence.

“Outflow” from the Southwestern quadrant of the system has been struggling to provide adequate moisture to fuel the increasingly exhausted source of energy–heat and humidity derived from the “Low-level winds,” that fairly provide constraint as regards to hostile 37-55 km/hr (20-30 kt) “Shearing environment,” which could prove fatal to tropical cyclones.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its analysis last night that the central convection that provide adequate banding within its LLCC was fair enough to support the theory that maintaining strength reaching 110 km/hr (60 kt) which average winds was about 101 km/hr (55 kt) along the Southwestern periphery of “02W/PAKHAR,” and “Atmospheric Pressure,” reaching to 988 hPa as indicated on their 1500Z issued bulletin last night, 31 March 2012.

fig. 2.0 "Vis Sat Imagery indicate the Eyewall of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR as shown crashes into Southern coast of Vung Tau, sending cyclonic weather along the storm's immediate path. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Despite this, and the relatively low “Shearing environment,”our system has continually lost steam, finally succumbed to lower OHC and the lack of good outflow and the existence of a blocking Subtropical Ridge to the Northeast of it, just over mainland China was a conclusive determinant for a true West to West-northwest track towards Southern Viet Nam–this sealed the fate of our system as it starts to dissipate over land as of posting.
Other Weather Systems Along Asia-Pacific

Since the La Niña-enhanced Easterlies have replaced the retreating “Monsoonal flow,” the source of such energy was snatched from our tropical system off the East China Sea two days ago, thus the weakening state of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” and the increasingly hostile oceanographic conditions, which I was referring to as the increasingly cooler “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC) along the coasts of Southern Viet Nam extending to the Northeast to the regions of Hainan Island, China.

Fig. 3.0 "I made this Impression using the tools I have gathered depicting the interfering weather systems across Western Pacific Region that contributed to the demise of the former Category 1 Typhoon on 30 March 2012--a record for this year's Pacific Typhoon Season. Image Courtesy: NOAA."

Also, a developing return of a moderate surge of the “Northeast Monsoon” was evident along the Northernmost edges of Northern Taiwan yesterday, this should be closely monitored especially in my country, the Philippines, where the “Wetter-than-normal” conditions generated widespread flooding across the archipelago due to the prevailing influence of the easing “La Niña Event.”

Well-defined LLCC Before Making Landfall

Such ill-effects effected a simmering heat generated temperature along the immediate path of the tropical system, thus a weakening trend has caused a significant loss of ambient conditions for further development.  This episode has wrought a disastrous result on the system’s life cycle from which adequate energy source, right variations of atmospheric values and warmer “Ocean Heat Content,” (OHC) are recipe for a perfect environment for tropical cyclones to undergo “Explosive Deepening” (ED) or otherwise known as “Rapid Intensification” (RI).

In the case of our tropical system at bar, there have been lacking variables that has degraded its size in meteorological aspect, which I would refer to its central pressure, diameter, wind intensity and the most important of all is the existence of warm sea surface temperature.

Accelerating Pace Towards Coast, Hits Land

An observation prior to its making landfall today, 01 April 2012, I have been observing that the system has jogged a bit faster on a Westerly to West-northwest trajectory towards Vung Tau, less than 30 km East-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City at around 2032z (432AM-PHL).

The JTWC pegged the system before making landfall at 75 km/hr (40 kt) sustained winds, and gusts reaching 101 km/hr (55 kt), with Central Pressure of 988 hPa, heading generally West at 11 km/hr. 

The latest data I have come acrossed this afternoon, at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL) and 0632z (0232PM-PHL), as evidenced by Vis Sat loop, a well-defined “Eye,” was evident and a “Central Dense Overcast,” where the intense winds along and heaviest rains are present was clearly seen wrapping the “Eyewall,” crashed into shore along the Southeastern coast of Viet Nam near Vung Tau.

Fig. 4.0 "A regional representation to clearly show the underlying factors that accelerated the landfall time frame of 02W/PAKHAR, indeed a formidable tropical system that lasted since the last 2.3 weeks as former Tropical Disturbance 96W on 17 March 2012. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Immediately after the advancing Western Quadrant of the system moved past the coast, the ferocity of the winds interacts with land mass, which ultimately cuts the main source of moisture and heat derived from the Sea, and “Land interaction,” would mean winds abruptly makes “Friction” with terrain and “Drier Air Mass,” predominantly present on land, which could also overwhelm the river capacity, and pose a critical threat along the River basins, especially the heavily silted Mekong River system that could result to massive landslides and flash flooding event, not to mention the high surf conditions that could obliterate the coastal communities especially in those highly vulnerable infrastructures that tend to be swept away by strong sea currents and rising tidal surges associated with a “Storm Surge,” or abnormal rising sea levels during an approaching storm along the low-lying coast.
More details later tonight. If you are in Viet Nam and has invaluable data about the storm, please send us your comments and thoughts.  We appreciate it but stay safe and keep dry! =)

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, NRL Mry and Typhoon2000.ph

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)