Tag Archives: ridge of high

BREAKING: 29 Apr 2012 Tropical Update on Developing Tropical Low 97W Off Southeastern Mindanao

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Invest 97W Sprung To Life, Torrential Rainfall Threatens Eastern Mindanao

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–For the last five (5) days in a row of intense heat associated with the prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” just to the Northeast of the Philippine Sea, with temperatures soaring high as 38C in most of Northern Luzon Provinces, our tenacious little Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern edge of Palau Island, Federated Island of Micronesia has come back to life after almost defeated by the drier conditions in the past four (4) days or so. Now that Shearing levels in the Upper atmosphere remains low, and Oceanographic values remain favourable, the system has finally entered into a new phase of life as moisture-laden clouds made a push towards the West, in a line of active thunderstorms flaring across the near-Equatorial region has led to the enhanced development of Invest 97W for the last 24 hrs.

I am made to believe that the system has a lease of life since its conception between 23 April and 24 April 2012, where most of the experts on this field of meteorology would agree on the point of warming oceans breed tenacious tropical systems that are capable of traversing vast distances longer that perceived before.

In my recent post at http://www.theboplive.net, “Warm oceans are breeding grounds of intense storm systems, and those regions where precipitable amounts of water vapor are most candidate for rapid intensification, which most scientists and meteorologists agree as main cause of intensification phase rate ranging from within five (5)  to fifteen (15%) boost potential and right conditions as regards to Wind shear and terrain variables that affects the lifespan of storms and the way they are expected to behave.”

Fig. 1.0 "MTSAT IR Imagery indicating how large the lump of clouds wrapping around Tropical Disturbance 97W as it intensifies further along the Southeastern edge of Mindanao coast. Image Courtesy: RAMMB/CIRA."


Again, I am bound to follow more than an impression, but on a generational scale, indeed, these Tropical Cyclones gather immense energy derived from the “Heat,” from the world’s oceans, and other atmospheric values such as Wind shear, Upper-level winds and prevailing weather systems should correspond to seasonal wind systems that would tend to support a stable region for tropical development.
Meantime, yesterday’s severe weather across Hong Kong territory associated with a “Trough of Low,” has now developed into a “Frontal system,” just North of Basco, Batanes and Taiwan Island. The said weather system should induce some showers extending from Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur and as far as Northeast towards the Ryukus Island Group in Southern tip of Japan, to include Naha in Okinawa.

Current Position:

As of 1832Z (0232AM-PHL/MAL), Tropical Disturbance “97W” has been located at 6.0N-129.5E, approximately 470 km East-southeast of Davao City, Philippines. Winds have reached 40 km/hr near the center, barometric readings at 1006 hPa at the moment, and is tracking Northwest at 15 km/hr.

Fig. 2.0 "An MTSAT IR Imagery I got from our colleague in Germany, Mike Adcock of the US Air Force depicting the increasingly huge banding that has been happening overnight within the system. You could immediately tell that this system could potentially have greater impacts to land mass especially terrain along the coast and hinterlands and some possibility of landslides happening and flooding. Image Credit: MTSAT IR, Mike Adcock."

It is forecast to move inland along the Eastern coast of Mindanao later evening today, Sunday, 29 April 2012 through Monday, 30 April 2012 if it maintains acceleration due West-northwest. Flooding potentials of 150 mm of rainfall totals in 24-hr period upon landfall could be expected in this system as “Orographic lift,” should bring enhanced cloudiness along the coastal regions of Southern and Eastern Mindanao as of posting in line with the banding wrapping near the system’s core, LLCC. Its outer bands have already reached the Northern edges of Mindanao and more convective rain band are slowly creeping inland which covers most of Central Mindanao by dawn breaking today.

NASA’s TRMM has been indicating a hefty 67-68 mm rainfall accumulation in a 24-hr period pegged for the system at the moment while at sea, and other sources of information I got was that the purples are evidently becoming more broader as it feeds on the relatively high sea-surface temperature as part of the “Diurnal,” processes a Tropical system are expected to undergo.

Flash floods and possible landslides especially along danger zones and mountain slopes are vulnerable during a storm so people along these areas should be warned of the dangers of staying in there, and would be wise enough to prepare and follow more than instinct but better judgment by staying on alert at all times. We will never know who’s lives would be spared from another tragedy such as last year’s worst–Tropical Storm “27W/Washi,” locally known as “Sendong,” that left vast tracts of lands and cities awash by torrential rains and the deluge that followed through, killing 1,300 people and sending thousands into shelters, and damages into almost Php2.2 Billions in infrastructure and agriculture. This time, who knows who’s life would be saved, it could be yours.

Fig. 3.0 "Another closer look at the system spawning some sporadic thunderstorms across the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of Mindanao. Image Credit: RAMMB/CIRA."

I am especially proud that our weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has been following the development since last night, and continues to do so in keeping up with the latest of the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island,USA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in Tokyo, Japan has yet to issue warnings on the system.

Hope all folks in Mindanao got the news, adequate, fresh and right!

More details as the system progresses further.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, HKO, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Intense “Spring Storm” Hits Japan Kills 2, Injured 300 Others

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Powerful Storm Approaching Japan, Alerts Up

Iloilo City, Philippines, 03 April 2012, (1000Z)–Springtime couldn’t be more beautiful with plum blossoms across Japan and nice weather.  On Tuesday morning, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) advised the residents along the Western side of the Sea of Japan, and several Prefectures under an intermediate warning for “Typhoon-like” conditions, associated with damaging winds, reaching 150 km/hr (81 kt), possible Tornadic activity and intense rainfall across the country.

The developing “Low,” emanated from East China, now surging Eastwards.  The agency is warning the coastal communities along the Sea of Japan of high seas, gale-force winds and treacherous road conditions.

Warnings are in effect along Amami, Chugoku, Kyushu (North), Kyushu (South),  Hokuriku, Kanto Koshin, Tohoku, Tokai, Kinki, Shikoku,  Ogasawara Prefectures.

Advisory is in effect across Okinawa Miyazaki, Tokushima, Okayama, Hiroshima, Nara, Shiga, Gifu, Nagano, Gumma, Saitama , Rest of Northern Hokkaido at 1912-JST (1012Z), JMA.

Below are demographic analysis about the storm I gathered from NOAA, JMA and NRL Mry:

Fig. 1.0 "National demographic of what's been happening via Radar across Japan since a severe weather pummels along its coast off Sea of Japan. Image Courtesy: JMA, 1930-JST (1030Z), 03 April 2012."

Fig. 2.0 "A close look at what has been happening across the zoomed location of Kanto Region, wherein the colors indicated the intensity of rainfall and persistent thunderstorms that could generate the potential for Tornadoes. Image Courtesy: JMA, 1930-JST (1030Z), 03 April 2012."

Fig. 3.0 "Intense thunderstorm activity was picked up in the Radar screen along Kanto Region, nearest to Southwest of Metropolitan Tokyo and its South ans Southeastern flank. Image Courtesy: JMA, 1930-JST (1030Z), 03 April 2012."

Fig. 4.0 "Severe thunderstorms scatter along a wide area of Tokai Region. JMA has warned of possible Tornadoes occurring in such places, and public were being advised to take shelter or evacuate to designated evacuation centers. Image Courtesy: JMA 1930-JST (1030Z), 03 April 2012."

Fig. 5.0 "Composite 500 mb overlay heights analysis indicate a passing Ridge of High Pressure along the line of the Korean Peninsula pushing the system off the Sea of Japan. Image Credit: NRL Mry."

Fig. 6.0 "Jet Stream as demonstrated by the flowing blue, green and yellow arrows evidenced a pushing Southeastward and generally Eastward motion heading along the Southern edge of Okinawa. Image Credit: NRL Mry."

Fig. 7.0 "This imagery clearly depicts the sea level pressure, more significant to see are the Isobaric pressure wrapping around a cold-core system off the Sea of Japan. The intensity of such Low are the most unusual for the Sea of Japan since records began during the olden times. Image Credit: NRL Mry."

A video taken from a youtube user, TAKAMY96 in Kyoto, Japan:

Huge Spring Storm Approaches Kyoto, Japan

Flooding could also become a serious issue for the affected regions across the edge of the Sea of Japan.  Forecasters warned of high surf conditions along the coastlines, already, several transportation sector has been affected by the intensity of the winds and pelting rains across several prefectures.

The Japan Railways Company,  (JR) and the Shinkansen route to the Northernmost destination has been cancelled in several locations across the Tohoku Region.  Strong winds and increasingly dangerous road conditions add to the complexity of life even for the day.  So many disruptions have been reported and NHK World has been reporting the deaths of two citizens and close to 300 injured as a result of the approaching storm.

Also, my colleague, Meteorologist Robert Speta of NHK World and Founder of this site, www.westernpacificweather.com has relayed to me at around 1930PM-JST (1030Z), the winds are strong across the street, just outside the NHK Headquarters in Tokyo.  Trees have been swaying quite violently and the windows according to Speta rattled, proving the ferocity of this weather system as it generates cyclonic conditions in almost all regions of Japan.

To me, this has yet to be a riveting experience having been informed first hand the immense power of nature as it blows its way through the night and due to reach Northernmost Island of Hokkaido later well into Wednesday morning, 04 April 2012.

Storm was considered an “Extreme” one, since no other storms of this magnitude has been observed along the Sea of Japan for the longest time since records began, authorities says.

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the world!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from JMA, NOAA, NASA, NRL Mry and Westernpacificweather.com

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)