Tag Archives: south pacific basin

BREAKING: 95P No More, Grows Further Into Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE, Nears Fiji Island’s Western Territory

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Nadi, Fiji Evacuates Its Citizens As Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE” Heads SSE’wards Towards The Coast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 02 April 2012, (0525Z)–Tenacious Tropical Disturbance “95P” now  a full-pledge Tropical Cyclone.  It traversed Vanuatu Islands, now accelerating towards Western edge of Fiji Island.

Yesterday, 01 April 2012, the Western Pacific had its eyes on Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” as it made landfall in Southern City of Vung Tau, Viet Nam just before 0620Z (1320PM-local), pummeled the coast with blinding rains and strong winds as it crashed onshore after it slightly intensified as indicated by a well-developed, “Eye” feature.  It fed on relatively warm waters off the coast of Viet Nam that bounds with the East China Sea.

Today, yet again, we are about to witness yet another feat in the current trend of increasingly intense “Tropical Cyclogenesis” across the South Pacific Basin with a potent storm, Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” as it heads ever dangerously closer to Western Fiji Island.  Already, the government officials in Capital Suva, has ordered massive evacuations of more than 7,000 of its citizens in Nadi, which is the Westernmost edge of the Island territory as torrential rains already caused flooding and could pose more threat to life and property.

Fig. 1.0 "A Vis Sat Imagery indicating a cyclonic weather in store for the flood-ravaged region of Nadi in the advance of the Eastern wedge of the outer bands from Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE. Image Courtesy: FNMOC/Navy"

Powerful Tropical System Heading Southwards

Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” was located to be at 19.2S-171.2E, or 663.5 km East-southeast of Nadi, Fiji at 2332Z (0732AM-PHL), with sustained wind reaching 65 km/hr (35 kt) and gusting near 93 km/hr (50 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa, and currently traversing over warm waters, which should catapult it over a favourable “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC), but the “Shearing environment” could be an issue and considering that the system is tracking more South-southeastwards to generally Southward motion for the last 6 hrs.

I won’t be quite surprised if after this posting, the system should have increased in intensity, considering a great deal of adequate “Inflow” from the Western Quadrant of the system and evidently well supported by a surging moisture from the South of it.

Generally, this system should become “Extratropical,”  in the coming 3-4 days ahead of this forecast.

Having said that, we’ll see hot it deteriorates the by the time as system gradually negotiates on cooler waters in the days to come.  This is the cause and effect all tropical systems are made of, they tend to peak and they die altogether when the conditions become “Hostile,” for further tropical development.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA) has issued warnings in consideration that the storm system could generate “Treacherous sea conditions,” as the cyclonic weather gets closer to Fiji Island later today.  Meteorologists in the agency also warned the coastal communities to be on alert for high surf conditions in the approach of the tempest and let it past.

The government in Suva also ordered its citizens to stay clear along the Western and Southern side of the Island territory and move to higher ground as rising sea levels whipped by Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” could endanger the coastal infrastructure.  “Storm Surges” are generated by these tropical systems and quite often if not mostly, this phenomena cause most deaths in a storm.

Fig. 2.0 "This demographic representation of the prevailing weather systems across the West Pacific and the South Pacific Basin. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Pesistent Ill-effects Of La Niña Surges On

Look no further along the Eastern side of the Philippines where a huge area of “Drier Air Mass” persists, this is because of the prevalence of the weak “La Niña,” event through 2nd half of this year.  Other meteorologists have ruled out the connection between the La Niña Phenomenon and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions in the Asia-Pacific Region, and what is happening at the onset is the effects of “Climatic Changes,” as the most abused aspect of our environment. I am no skeptic but, I’d say, it ain’t through at all. We still feel its ill-effects to date and that’s my opinion where I stand firm to my principles that this adverse period of “Climatic” conditions should prevail well into the “Neutral” months starting on late June-August of 2012.

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the world!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, NRL Mry, Westernpacificweather.com and Typhoon2000.ph

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)