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NEW TO VIEW: 12Z 27 Apr 2012 Analysis

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

 As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,” of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,” becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

 

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

 

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,” storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of the Korean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

Fig. 2.0 "Arid region of the Gobi Desert emits dust plumes blowing out over large swaths of Eastern China on 27 April 2012, and far-reaching towards Northeastern Japan. Image Courtesy: NASA EO."

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,” from the Gobi Deserthas been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,” dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

With data from NRL Mry, JMA, HKO, MalayMet, PAGASA and Westernpacificweather.com 

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

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Update: Large Aftershocks Continue To Rattle Northern Sumatra, 7.0 Mb Earthquake Hits Mexico Anew

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Tsunami Watch Across Indian Ocean, Atlantic Basin Lifted

Iloilo City, Philippines, 12 April 2012, (0400Z)–Tsunami scare now has past across vast regions in Indian Ocean Basin and farther to Atlantic Ocean.  The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii has issued in its bulletin at around 1236Z (0836PM-PHL), 11 April 2012, that the danger has past, therefore the lifting of such warning was found necessary to ease the concerns along the immediate coasts.  Later, a supplementary bulletin was issued around 1318Z (0918PM-PHL).

These are some of the gallery of photos I got from Reuters Newswires:

Fig. 1.0 "Stunned residents in Aceh Province lay on the streets fearing for more violent shakings and panick-stricken others evacuate to higher grounds in anticipation of a Tsunami. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 2.0 A Police officer with a woman trying to evacuate as Tsunami could be racing towards the coast of Aceh Province in Indonesia. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 3.0 "In the City of Medan, almost 560 kms North-northeast from the epicenter of the massive 8.6 Mb and 8.2 Mb twin temblors, residents try to calm a woman in distraught as violent tremors have hit the region. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 4.0 "Traffic jams the streets in Banda Aceh, the closest region to be hit by the massive twin temblors on 11 April 2012. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 5.0 "A local disaster management officer makes contact with grassroots level warning of an impending Tsunami surge along the coastal communities in Colombo, capital of Sri Lanka on Wednesday. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 6.0 "Fisherfolks clear the coast as officials in Colombo, Sri Lanka announced the danger of an incoming Tsunami as a result of yesterday's massive twin temblors off Sumatra. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

Fig. 7.0 "Evacuating the poor, bed-ridden patients in a local hospital in Southern Indian City of Chennai. Image Courtesy: Reuters."

The highest “Tsunami waves” on record has struck Suak Uleue, Indonesia at 6.0 m (20 ft) at about 01.26 hrs after the seismic event has commenced off the Northern Sumatran coast along the Sunda Trench.

A maximum read of  Tsunami,” wave height of 1.8 m (6 ft) was recorded in Naibos, Indonesiaat around 01.08 hrs after the initial 8.7 Mb event.  In Meulaboh, Indonesia, a 1.06 m (3.5 ft) was recorded at coastal tide gauges was also registered.

Fig. 8.0 "At the moment of disaster, 0839Z (0539PM-PHL), 11 April 2012. I don't reconcile how the number eleven (11) always have a connection with such extreme of events. Image Courtesy: USGS."

The massive main shock registered a whopping 8.6 Mb, located at about 434 km (270 mi) Southwest of Banda Aceh, the capital of Indonesia’s Aceh province, the U.S. Geological Survey has issued in its website.  The epicenter was pegged to be at a depth of 23 km (14 mi) beneath the surface, making this geologic event one of the most shocking to have hit the region since the historic 26 December 2004’s massive 9.1 Mb Temblor, dubbed “Great Sumatran Earthquake.”

Fig. 9.0 "A graphical representation of where the twin temblors have struck just off the Northern Sumatran coast in Indonesia, sending thousands seeking higher ground in fear of approaching Tsunami. Image Courtesy: UNEC."

Two (2) hours later, a large aftershock has hit of 8.2 Mb, just West coast of Northern Sumatra, which among the closest city centers of Singapore, Bangkok were shaken by the massive tremor, and reports of violent shaking was also observed in several areas across Thailand and Malaysia.  Witnesses lamented the frightening situation as the violence lasted for more than three (3) to five (5) minutes, in an interview with local television network in Bangkok, wherein the high-rise buildings were swaying longer than they have  experienced since the 2004 seismic event.

Fig. 10.0 "Tsunami Travel Times as indicated in a graph by the West Coast of Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), in preparation of the ensuing Tsunami that was later on cancelled. Image Courtesy: WCATWC."

2004 Boxing Day Tsunami Reminisced, Warnings In Place

The 2004 “Boxing Day Tsunami,” was generated across underneath the Indian Ocean, that has left 273,000 dead and thousands injured, and has destroyed the coastal cities and townships along the immediate fourteen (14) countries, costing $10 Billions worth of damages in infrastructure and livelihood, which took place 250 km (155 mi) South-southeast of Banda Aceh at a depth of 30 km (19 mi) beneath the surface.

The said  “Tsunami,” was a singularly most horrendous natural disaster to have struck the region according to the United Nations (UN), which sparked an international relief effort.

Tsunami Warning System was then taken into account and a study was conducted for implementation.  It was carried out to ready the Indian Ocean for yet another seismic event such as this, and evidently has created a huge interest on the aspect of drills conducted and appropriate dissemination to advance the required evacuations when the need arises.

Tsunami Science

“Tsunamis,” are characterized as shallow-water waves.  Shallow-water waves are different from wind-generated waves, the waves many of us have observed on a the beach.  Wind-generated waves usually have period (time between two sucessional waves) of five (5) to twenty (20) seconds and a wavelength (distance between two sucessional waves) of about 100 to 200 m (300 to 600 ft).

Fig. 11.0 "Tsunami waves crest before reaching for the coast. Image Courtesy: ITOC"

A “Tsunami,” can have a period in the range of ten (10) minutes to two (2) hours and a wavelength in excess of  500 km (300 mi).  It is because of their long wavelengths that tsunamis behave as shallow-water waves.  A wave is characterized as a shallow-water wave when the ratio between the water depth and its wavelength gets very small.

The speed of a shallow-water wave is equal to the square root of the product of the acceleration of gravity (32ft/sec/sec or 980cm/sec/sec) and the depth of the water.  The rate at which a wave loses its energy is inversely related to its wavelength.

Since a “Tsunami,” has a very large wave length, it will lose little energy as it propagates.  Hence in very deep water, a “Tsunami” will travel at high speeds and travel great transoceanic distances with limited energy loss.

For example, when the Ocean is 6100 m (20,000 ft) deep, unnoticed “Tsunami,” travel about 890 km/hr (550 mi/hr), at about the speed of a jet airplane.  And they can move from one side of the Pacific Ocean to the other side in less than one day.

As a “Tsunami” leaves the deep water of the open sea and propagates into the more shallow waters near the coast, it undergoes a transformation.  Since the speed of the tsunami is related to the water depth, as the depth of the water decreases, the speed of the tsunami diminishes.  The change of total energy of the tsunami remains constant.  Therefore, the speed of the “Tsunami,” decreases as it enters shallower water, and the height of the wave grows.  Because of this “Shoaling” effect, a “Tsunami” that was imperceptible in deep water may grow to be several feet or more in height.

Huge Earthquake Strikes Off Mexico

Update on yet another massive 7.0 Mb Earthquake that has struck 18.50N-102.65W, at about 52 km South of  Guadalajara in Mexico, with population of 1,640,589, at around 2255.18Z (1755.18PM-local time), or 24 km West of  Arteaga, with population density of 9,550 more or less.  There were no reports of damage or casualties at the moment.

Fig. 12.0 "Huge 7.0 Mb Earthquake struck Western Mexico just hours after the immensely destructive 8.6 Mb and 8.2 Mb Temblors hit just West of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia on 11 April 2012. Image Courtesy: PTWC."

The PTWC has issued an information statement about this seismic event, but no Pacific-wide “Tsunami,” was ever issued to that effect.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay!  Stay safe guys!

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: Massive 8.7 Temblor Hits Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami In Progress

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Panic-struck People Across Asia As Massive 8.7 Mb Earthquake Hits Northern Sumatra, Sparks Evacuation

Iloilo City, Philippines, 11 April 2012, (0951Z)–There was another huge Temblor that has hit the already Earthquake and Tsunami stricken Banda Aceh, in Sumatra, Indonesia back in 26 December 2004, “Boxing Day,” geologic event.  The United States Geological Survey (USGS), has issued a preliminary report on this as 8.9 Mb but later it was confirmed that it has been lowered to 8.7 Mb, nevertheless, it is a major one!

The epicenter was about 434 km Southwest of Northern Sumatra, just off Banda Aceh in Indonesia, it struck the region, 33 km beneath the surface–it means the “Subduction Zone,” involved in huge “Rupture,” it could reach 300 kms long underneath the Ocean floor.  Experts have been sounding the alarm for an ensuing Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami is in effect along the immediate coast of Sumatra, Indonesia particularly under the gun as the Tectonic Plates moving forth ditched closer to “Horizontal” motion, according to Garry Gibson, a Geologist based in Australia, CNN in its reports as this even is in progress within the next 24 hrs.

The Earthquake has struck at around 0839Z, between 2N-92.5E, and widespread damage could be expected in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, the closest to the epicenter of today’s huge Temblor.  It has a depth of 33 km beneath the surface, considered very shallow.  A lot of people have been evacuating into higher ground after authorities in Sumatra after the strong tremor has been observed.

There were also unconfirmed reports that in Phuket, Pha Nhang in Thailand, the local authorities are expediting evacuations as they believe the Tsunami waves could reach 4.0 m in height.  Since the Earthquake has already past, the growing concerns are about the ensuing Tsunami that could have been generated out of this gigantic geological event. Critical areas could have been already hit several times by the waves as of posting and it’s getting dark now.

Fig. 1.0 "The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Hawaii, USA has issued this graph pertaining to a Tsunami Watch in effect over the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: PTWC."

The PTWC has issued a Tsunami Watch,” across Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Australia, Myanmar, Thailand, Maldives, United Kingdom, Malaysia, Mauritius, Reunion, Seychelles, Pakistan, Somalia, Oman, Madagascar, Iran, Uae, Yemen, Comores, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Mozambique, Kenya, Crozet Islands, Kerguelen Islands, South Africa, Singapore.  These areas are to closely monitor the rise and fall of sea levels within the next crucial 30 minutes and the forthcoming hours after the preliminary Earthquake has been felt.  Tremors will continue to shake the region as the ground tries to settle down within the next week or so.

Fig. 2.0 "People went outside the buildings in Malaysia as a strong tremor was being felt in Northern regions of the country as the massive 8.7 Mb Temblor has hit Northern Sumatra off the Indian Ocean. Image Courtesy: all over the net I guess."

Japan’s NHK World has been monitoring the development of this latest seismic upheavals.  Our resident meteorologist, Robert Speta has been reporting live on NHK World after Newsline, as I post this article right now, the weather could also be a significant factor as regards to rescue efforts ongoing along the coast of Sumatran Islands especially in cut-off regions in Simeulue Island, in Sumatra, Indonesia, which unconfirmed reports of a 6.0 m surge of Tsunamis was reported, as heavy rainfall could trigger landslips and flooding that could severely affect the already volatile situation in the area.

Update 1.0:  Francis Chuah, our affiliate author based in Malaysia has been reporting that his sister has been feeling the effects of another huge 8.2 Mb Aftershock, and it was strongly felt across the region at the moment.  Mr. Chuah was the one who gave first insights through his sister based in Northern part of Malaysia late this afternoon, same time with me here in the Philippines.

Fig. 3.0 "The first BIG Jolt that has struck off the Southwestern coast of Banda Aceh. Image Courtesy: USGS."

USGS reports of the huge Aftershock to be near 615 km South-southwest of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia, 0.773N-92.452E, epicentered at 16.4 km beneath the surface, which places this one very shallow. In ChennaiIndia has been shutting its ports in the advance of the incoming Tsunami arrival there.

Fig. 4.0 "Another huge aftershock has hit more South-southwest of the previous 8.6 Mb Temblor. Image Courtesy: USGS."

Reports of 60 cm in height of Tsunami waves has been arriving in Aceh, 80 cm in Meulaboh, all in Sumatran coast in Indonesia.  There has been information also of waters receding back at 10.0 m in Meulaboh.

More details coming in as it becomes available.

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! Stay safe and stay away from the coast, seek higher ground if you are under the PTWC’s Tsunami Watch.

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)