Tag Archives: tropical cyclogenesis

The Dawn Of A New Beginning: NHK World’s Newest Resident Meteorologist Robert Speta Debuts

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Meteoric Leap, Empowering More People Across Asia Pacific, World

Iloilo City, Philippines, 09April 2012, (1430Z)–Long before I was entrusted this humbling experience of being an author here on Westernpacificweather.com, I have been amazed with the way Meteorologist Robert Speta was doing his Tropical Updates focusing more on Western Pacific Region for the last two (2) years.  There ain’t no other “American” guy you can find online that does these humbling stuffs and giving more emphasis on Asia’s weather but him.  His profound dedication and sheer honesty to his craft, and worth mentioning beyond his being accessibly friendly nature and blessed with the knowledge and proper training, there could be no doubt, he will do great wonders and an asset to NHK World’s sentinel of equally sensible and great team of forecasters we ought to see on television, heard on the radio and online.

Little did I know that Mr. Speta is a Broadcast and Operational Meteorologist rolled into one.  I could still remember his helpful video feeds from his website especially during times of great need like an approaching Typhoon about to affect my country, the Philippines back in 2011.

Additionally, he had seven (7) years of service with the United States Navy (USNavy), and now, he is engaged in anchoring the weather segment broadcast in Japan’s top-rating Newsline at NHK World Headquaters in Tokyo, effective today, 09 April 2012, Monday.

On 29 March 2012, I got an invite from Mr. Speta to join him in his vision of providing adequate information relative to what he loved of doing as a goal-oriented guy from Buffalo, New York in the USA.  Mr. Speta, where most of his friends call him, “Rob,” was no less like a young gun who wanted to make the world a safer, better place for the rest of us.

Mr. Speta, based on his career portfolio, is a seasoned, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Meteorologist, who loved to carry on his mission by educating more and more people about the working relationship between climatic variables and effective understanding of what weather will be in the coming days, or what could be the areas affected by a singularly important aspect of life most of us do not fully comprehend but does form part an integral thread of our way of living.  It was beyond one’s dreams that brought a throng of people line into a particular calling.

Challenges Ahead

Time could only be a constant determinant of what’s to come for I was about to embark into a new dimension, a beginning of what I do best–writing articles that could provide credible, comprehensive information on what’s been happening around us, giving more weight on the study of Climatic dynamism and tropical cyclogenesis which affects the Western Pacific since time immemorial.

I am no professional in the study of meteorology, but with Meteorologist Speta at the helm of this vessel, I know we will go farther and reach ever closer to more people that deserve nothing less but dependable and adequate ideas and workable truths in today’s relatively unstable and elaborately extreme weather.

A good friend, a brother in the Philippines, shared his wisdom, in the person of Michael Williams, Sr. said to me on this day,“I take anything I associate myself with very seriously.  It only takes ONE good screw up to ruin a reputation, thus in many times, it cannot be recovered.”

In the light of these development, I also would like to thank Mr. Speta for the trust and continued support on my works here on Westernpacificweather.com, and considering that this could be this generation’s best, by far, in the last eleven (11) days that I have been engaged in this job, we are largely being viewed back home in the Philippines and abroad, especially in Malaysia via team mate and admin for this site, a fellow author and contributor in the person of whiz kid Francis Chuah and my fellow “Kababayan,” Ian Patrick Malejana, now based in Long Island, New York, USA.  These are smart people, make no mistake, they will deliver the goods the way it should be–piping hot, in-depth analysis and no nonsense.

Here are some of today’s cut on tube in case you missed today’s broadcast.  Enjoy as we did this afternoon at around 1720PM-JST, 0920Z (0520PM-PHL) during his first broadcast LIVE on air at posh NHK World Studios in NHK HQ in Tokyo, Japan:

Fig. 1.0 "Live on NHK World Studios in Tokyo, Meteorologist Robert Speta made an entry about the blossoming Sakura trees in Kanto Region, as JMA has confirmed its full bloom two days ago. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

Fig. 2.0 "On this screen indicate a possible flood potential for the regions of Yellow Sea bordering Korean Peninsula, that could spawn thunderstorm activity that could adversely affect the scheduled Ballistic/Rocket launch by Pyongyang, NoKor on 12 April and 16 April 2012. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

In today’s weather forecast, discussed the likelihood of yet another wet and windy weather by late Tuesday, 10 April 2012 across Western edge of Southern Japan, explains further the areas to be hit by another “Spring Storm,” this week, and advised locales to bring weather implements as a sort of protection against the elements, pointing out the possible rains across Southern China, that could spill into Yellow Sea as a developing Trough of Low could yet again surge into Sea of Japan, though not as intense as last week that hit Japan.

Moving on to the other side of the Pacific Basin, he laments of the incoming moisture coming from a huge Trough of Low along the Northwestern regions of the United States, and a brewing severe storm off the Southern regions, where a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity and golf, tennis-ball sized hail pound the Mid-states of Oklahoma, possibly “Tornadic” activity in neighboring states as well into the next coming days and a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity which is not a good situation out there.

In Europe, across the Baltic Region, an area of Low is fast approaching the British Isles.  Spain, however was hit by record drought conditions. Rains across Barcelona, Spain could provide a respite from the excessive heat as a surging area of Low that could cause Polar air into the Baltic Seas, further plunging temperatures across Europe and wet and windy conditions in the coming days.  Portions of the Netherlands to the South, and Norway to the North could be expecting some wet and windy weather associated with the system.  Italy could be getting some pounding rains and gusty wind conditions as an area of Low also lingers a bit off greater Italy and the Mediterranean countrysides.  Some thundery showers are also in the forecast.
To give you guys a gist of what’s to come, I give you Robert Speta, a fulfilled meteorologist ready to take on the world’s challenges!

Join us as we take the center stage using the most credible insights!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

BREAKING: 95P No More, Grows Further Into Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE, Nears Fiji Island’s Western Territory

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Nadi, Fiji Evacuates Its Citizens As Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE” Heads SSE’wards Towards The Coast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 02 April 2012, (0525Z)–Tenacious Tropical Disturbance “95P” now  a full-pledge Tropical Cyclone.  It traversed Vanuatu Islands, now accelerating towards Western edge of Fiji Island.

Yesterday, 01 April 2012, the Western Pacific had its eyes on Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,” as it made landfall in Southern City of Vung Tau, Viet Nam just before 0620Z (1320PM-local), pummeled the coast with blinding rains and strong winds as it crashed onshore after it slightly intensified as indicated by a well-developed, “Eye” feature.  It fed on relatively warm waters off the coast of Viet Nam that bounds with the East China Sea.

Today, yet again, we are about to witness yet another feat in the current trend of increasingly intense “Tropical Cyclogenesis” across the South Pacific Basin with a potent storm, Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” as it heads ever dangerously closer to Western Fiji Island.  Already, the government officials in Capital Suva, has ordered massive evacuations of more than 7,000 of its citizens in Nadi, which is the Westernmost edge of the Island territory as torrential rains already caused flooding and could pose more threat to life and property.

Fig. 1.0 "A Vis Sat Imagery indicating a cyclonic weather in store for the flood-ravaged region of Nadi in the advance of the Eastern wedge of the outer bands from Tropical Cyclone 18P/DAPHNE. Image Courtesy: FNMOC/Navy"

Powerful Tropical System Heading Southwards

Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” was located to be at 19.2S-171.2E, or 663.5 km East-southeast of Nadi, Fiji at 2332Z (0732AM-PHL), with sustained wind reaching 65 km/hr (35 kt) and gusting near 93 km/hr (50 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa, and currently traversing over warm waters, which should catapult it over a favourable “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC), but the “Shearing environment” could be an issue and considering that the system is tracking more South-southeastwards to generally Southward motion for the last 6 hrs.

I won’t be quite surprised if after this posting, the system should have increased in intensity, considering a great deal of adequate “Inflow” from the Western Quadrant of the system and evidently well supported by a surging moisture from the South of it.

Generally, this system should become “Extratropical,”  in the coming 3-4 days ahead of this forecast.

Having said that, we’ll see hot it deteriorates the by the time as system gradually negotiates on cooler waters in the days to come.  This is the cause and effect all tropical systems are made of, they tend to peak and they die altogether when the conditions become “Hostile,” for further tropical development.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA) has issued warnings in consideration that the storm system could generate “Treacherous sea conditions,” as the cyclonic weather gets closer to Fiji Island later today.  Meteorologists in the agency also warned the coastal communities to be on alert for high surf conditions in the approach of the tempest and let it past.

The government in Suva also ordered its citizens to stay clear along the Western and Southern side of the Island territory and move to higher ground as rising sea levels whipped by Tropical Cyclone “18P/DAPHNE,” could endanger the coastal infrastructure.  “Storm Surges” are generated by these tropical systems and quite often if not mostly, this phenomena cause most deaths in a storm.

Fig. 2.0 "This demographic representation of the prevailing weather systems across the West Pacific and the South Pacific Basin. Image Courtesy: CIRA."

Pesistent Ill-effects Of La Niña Surges On

Look no further along the Eastern side of the Philippines where a huge area of “Drier Air Mass” persists, this is because of the prevalence of the weak “La Niña,” event through 2nd half of this year.  Other meteorologists have ruled out the connection between the La Niña Phenomenon and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions in the Asia-Pacific Region, and what is happening at the onset is the effects of “Climatic Changes,” as the most abused aspect of our environment. I am no skeptic but, I’d say, it ain’t through at all. We still feel its ill-effects to date and that’s my opinion where I stand firm to my principles that this adverse period of “Climatic” conditions should prevail well into the “Neutral” months starting on late June-August of 2012.

More details coming right up.  Keep it here, www.westernpacificweather.com for the very latest on Tropical Updates from the Region and the rest of the world!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)



With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, NRL Mry, Westernpacificweather.com and Typhoon2000.ph


(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

02W/PAKHAR Weakens To Tropical Storm, Threatens To Make Landfall In Viet Nam On Sunday

By:  Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

 

Once Formidable Storm Weakens

Iloilo City, Philippines, 31 March 2012, (0400Z)–Category 1 Typhoon no more.  Our tropical system, “02W/PAKHAR” was a Typhoon no more as the winds died down gradually weakening its core, and the intensity readings went down to Tropical Storm threshold this morning.  Winds near its center was about 75 km/hr (40 kt) and gusting to 111 km/hr (60 kt), with central pressure of 998 hPa.  Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” was located near 9.6N-109.9E or approximately 376.3 km South-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.  I am considering the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale measurement at the moment.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) however pegged the system to be slightly stronger that of the JMA measurement at 111 km/hr (60 kt) with higher gusts reaching 140 km/hr (75 kt), making it a “Strong Tropical Storm,” almost at “Category 1 Typhoon” threshold by scale.

At the onset, the the prevailing “Upper level winds” are consistently favourable for the system to maintain its strength, despite the variation of existence of some drier air mass coming from its Southwestern periphery and a building Subtropical Ridge (STR) that should steer the system generally Westwards later tonight before making land fall along the coast of Viet Nam later tomorrow, 01 April 2012 at about nightfall according to some Numerical models that I have been checking out from time to time.

Fig. 1.0 "Typhoon 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam as convective banding tries to consolidate. A building STR should steer it towards Viet Nam coast sometime Sunday evening. Image Credit: CIRA."

Nevertheless, the oceanographic conditions are in aide for a slow but steady intensification phase of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” as it continues to stay offshore, away from land mass, but its outer bands have already arrived in advance since yesterday so flooding should not be a question anymore.

Meteorological Agencies Scale Up 02W/PAKHAR’s Intensity

There might be some confusion around here as regards to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) definition of a “Tropical Storm” versus a full-pledge “Typhoon,” which the American models indicate, and in strong agreement with other interrelated Meteorological Agency across the Asia-Pacific Region.  By no means necessary, a “Tropical Storm” using the measurement scale of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) based in Tokyo, Japan, under JMA’s operation, rap it up to between 62 km/hr (34 kt) and 88 km/hr (47 kt), and it all begins to come into mind that there are deep variations to this with that of a full-pledge “Typhoon,” that translates to a higher wind acceleration reaching above 118 km/hr (64 kt).

In the light of these, it clearly indicate a substantial difference with the interpretation of wind-average readings that uses a 10-minute wind average intervals.  The JMA uses this in terms of wind intensity sustained within the 10-minute period, as per World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regulation based in Geneva, Switzerland.

In most cases, this requirement are being observed by most of the weather agencies from around the world.  The 10-minute average we call it, points to a system that analyze the winds sustained within a Tropical Cyclone at a given time at a height of 10.0 m (33 ft), to which our state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also utilizes in reaching for a consensus in the event of a Tropical Cyclone threatening the Philippines within its Philippine Area of Responsibility” (PAR).

Fig. 2.0 "An impression I have made using the Vis Sat Imagery over the Western Pacific as shown, the weakened circulation along the East China Sea with evident convective banding that is occurring in aide of the system. To the far right, huge thunderstorms spawned by a passing Front pushes the La Niña-Easterlies well into Eastern Philippines. Image Credit: Digital-typhoon."

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) based in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii Island, USA uses another methodology, the “Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale,”  now this is anchored on the actual wind speed acceleration averaged over a 1-minute period, at 10 m (33 ft) above the ground.

Fig. 3.0 "MLSP readings indicate the confined vorticity remains offshore, and stronger gust constrained along the Southern edge of Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR at the moment. Image Credit: CIRA."

One’s failure to comprehend these variations add to the growing confusion which agencies of the two should prevail.  I hope putting up this issue now give due understanding of the difference between the readings, even I to date tend to miss some of this, frankly speaking!

Will Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR Again Intensify?

The answer is a resounding yes, considering the existence of low shearing environment and the favourable “Sea Surface Temperature” (SST) across the East China Sea.  I am not using the word, West Philippine Sea, or a.k.a. South China Sea because the matter now is beyond our territorial seas (Chuckle).

Since the system has reached its peak so to speak, in the meteorological aspect, we call it “Diurnal Maximum,” as indicated by the JTWC in its 2100Z bulletin, wherein a certain Tropical Cyclone has reached its peak intensity for a 24-hour period.  This refers also on the temperature that occurs after midday which maximum heat can be obtained in a considerable time, and vis-a-vis, the minimum before the Sun hits the horizon early in the morning.

In addition to this, the various factors could also be attributed to change in relative humidity at a given time, the clouds that feed and wrap around the convective towering cloud tops or the anvil thunderstorms that give these Tropical Cyclone a finite source of moisture and adequate amount of heat, equivalent to energy.

Fig. 4.0 "A NOAA eTrap indicate the rainfall totals within a 24-hr period as the system persists at East China Sea. Image Credit: NOAA."

Talk about energy, the Sun and the heat radiated from the surface of the Sea can also affect a storm’s life, and oh, before I forget, the precipitation or the rains that rise and fall within the clouds, it’s called “Condensation” and the rate of “Evaporation.”  These are all essential to a Tropical system.  The stages that undergone feeds into a system like a conveyor belt, which I believe it could have definitive impact on the “Atmospheric Pressure,” that can only be found inside the core of the Tropical Cyclone.

Fig. 5.0 "I made this impression I got from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center through Rob Gutro's article at NASA Hurricane Page. I give credit to the efforts made by NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce. Thanks a million, guys!"

To what extent did our storm lose steam? We will find out later this afternoon if our discussion here of a gradual intensification phase holds water!  In the meantime,  I am signing off for more of these a bit later tonight.  Nonetheless, we’ll all keep a close eye on this one as it maintains its course, though stationary at times, it has been generating a lot of precipitation back here in the Philippines for quite some time now.

Also, my fellow “Kababayans” in flood-ravaged towns of Mindoro Occidental, Bicol Region and parts of Capiz nearest to my location should take a look into the upcoming thunderheads that hover above us.  Right now I have been observing large thunderstorm anvils shooting into the atmosphere sending rumbling thunder ahead of the thunderstorms that could come at any moment soon!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

With data from NOAA, NASA, CIRA, JTWC, JMA, HKO, NRL Mry and Typhoon2000.ph

(Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through–>weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)