Tag Archives: weather

Super Typhoon Nepartak Races Towards Taiwan

The first “Super Typhoon” of 2016 is now roaring its way north west Towards Taiwan this Wednesday ushering in the first threat of a land falling damaging typhoon in 2016.

Key Points –

 

  • The storm is expected to make landfall in Taiwan Thursday night in to Friday Morning, the exact location is still uncertain due to the synoptic layout and how the storm interacts with the mountains as it nears.
  • Damaging winds north of the storms track and flooding in the mountains of Taiwan will be the main issue.
  • Ishigaki and Miyako Jima should still watch it closely as the right side of the storm will swipe the islands bringing damaging winds.
  • THE STORM WILL NOT make landfall in the Philippines. Although the Batanes islands in the Luzon straight could see the rough weather. Plus the enhanced monsoon “Habagat” will bring heavy rainfall to Central Luzon through Visayas.
  • Okinawa Honto could see some gusty winds and heavy rains on Thursday and Friday due to the outer rain bands of the storm. Winds are not expected to top 50kts on the island so a slim chance of TCCORS changing.

 

What is it doing now?

It is currently intensifying in the classic “Philippine sea effect” way. A region of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures has allowed the storm to blow up from a weak Typhoon Tuesday morning to nearly a Cat 5 Wednesday morning.

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

Wednesday Morning , Visible Satellite

The visible sat loop from Sunrise Wednesday morning shows incredible outflow from the storm, a well defined eye and a dangerous eye wall. Good news unlike previous storms in this area the size is not that large ranging only a few 100km across.

 

The Forecast Track

There is high confidence Nepartak will continue North West following the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands south of Japan. At this time there is also fair confidence that the storm WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN TAIWAN by Thursday night in to Friday morning.  The exact location is still now known though and as we have seen in the past the way a storm interacts with the mountains of Taiwan depending on how it comes on shore makes a incredible difference in how much rain falls and where it falls. This is why residents here should check for continued updates and also prepare regardless for typhoon Conditions.

track

The Strength Forecast

WMO forecasting agencies upped the strength forecast today with JTWC expecting a Category 5 typhoon by Thursday. JMA as well expects Nepartak to max out with winds over 250kph.

The wind  is enough to not only light objects around but also send heavier objects includes mopeds, trampolines, trees, and small cars.  MAKE SURE TO SECURE EVERYTHING.

Nepartak

The rainfall as always will be a major issue if the storm tracks closer to Taiwan. Even if it skirts the island rain bands could surge on shore ushering in up to 500mm of rainfall or more. This is common with the mountains of Taiwan as the steep hill sides act as a wall squeezing out any moisture that pushes on shore over the island.

96hr

Landslides are always a major problem with land falling storms in Taiwan, often coastal roads can be blocked and impassible especially just north of Hualien City along the east coast. The photo below shows where the highest threats of flooding and landslides are located.

landslide threat

Take a look at the video below from 2015 when Typhoon Soudelor hit the island.

Preparation.

 

Here is a bare minimum list of the things that I personally keep in my house at all times:

– Flashlights

– Spare batteries

– Groceries plus for 4 days

– Radio

– Bottled water

–  Bungie cords and/or tie down material, (including trampolines, the US Military most favorite object to have launched across the island of Okinawa)

 

Of course this is a short list and just a start of preparations. A longer explanation can be found here.

 

The storm should stay west of the main island of Okinawa but as mentioned before even a small shift east could mean an increase to Tropical storm strength winds. At this time though it does not look like damaging winds will be in Okinawa. That means no TCCORS for military there.

Even though Typhoon Neparak will stay south of Okinawa Japan there is still the chance of consistent rainfall and some strong storms associated with the mass of convection located north east of the storm. This will trail along with it pushing over the Ryuku islands through Friday.

okinawa

In the Philippines expect heavy rainfall to dominate from Wednesday to Friday in Visayas through much of Luzon. This includes the Metro areas of Cebu and Manila.  Despite the fact typhoon Nepartak will not impact the area directly it will still enhance the south west monsoon ushering in a “habagat” as it is known in the Philippines.   Consistent rainfall associated with this type of event is known for causing urban flooding in the city and landslides along mountain sides in remote areas.

storm

Record Breaking Slow Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

Record Breaking Late Start to the Tropical Season

We have seen one of the longest streaks with no Typhoons in Recorded history and also the second latest named storm to ever form in the basin this year.

 

Conditions have just not been favorable for storm development with high shear really tearing apart any storms that even had a idea of forming in to a named system. This has a lot to do with the dynamics in the West Pacicic and how the atmosphere has been changing from a El Nino State to a La Nina one. Regardless it sure has made for some unusually calm weather recently. Especially coming off of the record breaking 2015 Typhoon Season.

 

 

The Dawn Of A New Beginning: NHK World’s Newest Resident Meteorologist Robert Speta Debuts

By: Weatherguy Adonis

Adonis S. Manzan

Meteoric Leap, Empowering More People Across Asia Pacific, World

Iloilo City, Philippines, 09April 2012, (1430Z)–Long before I was entrusted this humbling experience of being an author here on Westernpacificweather.com, I have been amazed with the way Meteorologist Robert Speta was doing his Tropical Updates focusing more on Western Pacific Region for the last two (2) years.  There ain’t no other “American” guy you can find online that does these humbling stuffs and giving more emphasis on Asia’s weather but him.  His profound dedication and sheer honesty to his craft, and worth mentioning beyond his being accessibly friendly nature and blessed with the knowledge and proper training, there could be no doubt, he will do great wonders and an asset to NHK World’s sentinel of equally sensible and great team of forecasters we ought to see on television, heard on the radio and online.

Little did I know that Mr. Speta is a Broadcast and Operational Meteorologist rolled into one.  I could still remember his helpful video feeds from his website especially during times of great need like an approaching Typhoon about to affect my country, the Philippines back in 2011.

Additionally, he had seven (7) years of service with the United States Navy (USNavy), and now, he is engaged in anchoring the weather segment broadcast in Japan’s top-rating Newsline at NHK World Headquaters in Tokyo, effective today, 09 April 2012, Monday.

On 29 March 2012, I got an invite from Mr. Speta to join him in his vision of providing adequate information relative to what he loved of doing as a goal-oriented guy from Buffalo, New York in the USA.  Mr. Speta, where most of his friends call him, “Rob,” was no less like a young gun who wanted to make the world a safer, better place for the rest of us.

Mr. Speta, based on his career portfolio, is a seasoned, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Meteorologist, who loved to carry on his mission by educating more and more people about the working relationship between climatic variables and effective understanding of what weather will be in the coming days, or what could be the areas affected by a singularly important aspect of life most of us do not fully comprehend but does form part an integral thread of our way of living.  It was beyond one’s dreams that brought a throng of people line into a particular calling.

Challenges Ahead

Time could only be a constant determinant of what’s to come for I was about to embark into a new dimension, a beginning of what I do best–writing articles that could provide credible, comprehensive information on what’s been happening around us, giving more weight on the study of Climatic dynamism and tropical cyclogenesis which affects the Western Pacific since time immemorial.

I am no professional in the study of meteorology, but with Meteorologist Speta at the helm of this vessel, I know we will go farther and reach ever closer to more people that deserve nothing less but dependable and adequate ideas and workable truths in today’s relatively unstable and elaborately extreme weather.

A good friend, a brother in the Philippines, shared his wisdom, in the person of Michael Williams, Sr. said to me on this day,“I take anything I associate myself with very seriously.  It only takes ONE good screw up to ruin a reputation, thus in many times, it cannot be recovered.”

In the light of these development, I also would like to thank Mr. Speta for the trust and continued support on my works here on Westernpacificweather.com, and considering that this could be this generation’s best, by far, in the last eleven (11) days that I have been engaged in this job, we are largely being viewed back home in the Philippines and abroad, especially in Malaysia via team mate and admin for this site, a fellow author and contributor in the person of whiz kid Francis Chuah and my fellow “Kababayan,” Ian Patrick Malejana, now based in Long Island, New York, USA.  These are smart people, make no mistake, they will deliver the goods the way it should be–piping hot, in-depth analysis and no nonsense.

Here are some of today’s cut on tube in case you missed today’s broadcast.  Enjoy as we did this afternoon at around 1720PM-JST, 0920Z (0520PM-PHL) during his first broadcast LIVE on air at posh NHK World Studios in NHK HQ in Tokyo, Japan:

Fig. 1.0 "Live on NHK World Studios in Tokyo, Meteorologist Robert Speta made an entry about the blossoming Sakura trees in Kanto Region, as JMA has confirmed its full bloom two days ago. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

Fig. 2.0 "On this screen indicate a possible flood potential for the regions of Yellow Sea bordering Korean Peninsula, that could spawn thunderstorm activity that could adversely affect the scheduled Ballistic/Rocket launch by Pyongyang, NoKor on 12 April and 16 April 2012. Image Credit: Weatherguy Adonis."

In today’s weather forecast, discussed the likelihood of yet another wet and windy weather by late Tuesday, 10 April 2012 across Western edge of Southern Japan, explains further the areas to be hit by another “Spring Storm,” this week, and advised locales to bring weather implements as a sort of protection against the elements, pointing out the possible rains across Southern China, that could spill into Yellow Sea as a developing Trough of Low could yet again surge into Sea of Japan, though not as intense as last week that hit Japan.

Moving on to the other side of the Pacific Basin, he laments of the incoming moisture coming from a huge Trough of Low along the Northwestern regions of the United States, and a brewing severe storm off the Southern regions, where a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity and golf, tennis-ball sized hail pound the Mid-states of Oklahoma, possibly “Tornadic” activity in neighboring states as well into the next coming days and a potential for damaging winds, severe thunderstorm activity which is not a good situation out there.

In Europe, across the Baltic Region, an area of Low is fast approaching the British Isles.  Spain, however was hit by record drought conditions. Rains across Barcelona, Spain could provide a respite from the excessive heat as a surging area of Low that could cause Polar air into the Baltic Seas, further plunging temperatures across Europe and wet and windy conditions in the coming days.  Portions of the Netherlands to the South, and Norway to the North could be expecting some wet and windy weather associated with the system.  Italy could be getting some pounding rains and gusty wind conditions as an area of Low also lingers a bit off greater Italy and the Mediterranean countrysides.  Some thundery showers are also in the forecast.
To give you guys a gist of what’s to come, I give you Robert Speta, a fulfilled meteorologist ready to take on the world’s challenges!

Join us as we take the center stage using the most credible insights!

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)

 (Note: If you have queries, email me at amanzan@smartbro.net or through weatherguyadonis@theboplive.net)

North Korea Rocket Launch and how the Weather will play a vital role.

Weather throughout history has played a vital role in space travel; this will be no different with the planned rocket launch this week by North Korea. Specifically by the mid-part of the week a low pressure system will be moving through the Korean Peninsula and with it bringing thunderstorms, high winds, and cloud cover. All unfavorable conditions for any type of space vehicles.  The video above is my forecast analysis throughout the week. I do want to stress these are just my opinions on the forecast reflected back to when I used to forecast the weather in the area of Space Shuttle launches.  It is not my opinions on the launch itself and its role in world politics.

Apollo 12 Lightning Strike

History tells us that weather can cause damage to spacecraft, in 1969 Apollo 12 was struck by lightning twice just after launch. This is why the U.S and Nasa have such strict rules on launch weather.

The forecast though as stated above will be grim through Thursday. Tuesday a low pressure area will begin to work its way in to the Korean Peninsula with cloudy skies on the cards by 0900 that morning.  This will already provide not only dangerous conditions for launching but also a poor photo opportunity for this landmark launch. Something I’m sure the government of North Korea would not want to miss.  Conditions should go down hill more on Wednesday as the low passes though before moving off to Japan. High pressure will begin to ridge in by Thursday ushering in fairer conditions accompanied by a cool breezy northerly wind.  Therefore the most prime conditions for a rocket launch would be Thursday by noon or Friday morning. International law would not allow the North Korean Space agency to launch by afternoon though so likely one would wait to Friday morning.

2009 Launch

These are all just my thoughts though and if the forecast takes place early in the week or late in the week I’m sure it will go off.  Which is why the second half of the video talks about how space debris will fall due to upper level winds.  In the yellow sea the jet stream will be cruising through resulting in rather high winds in the upper levels, this could carry the debris a little farther East, by how far one could not be sure due to the unknown problem of how high the stage one separation would take place.   The other concern is the stage two separation area. Where in the tropics thankfully the upper level winds are rather light and the lower level atmosphere looks fair by the mid part of the week. Therefore as long as everything goes to plan the North Eastern Coast of Luzon should not be to worried.

So please be sure to check it out and as always if you have any comments or suggestions please post them in the box below.