Tag Archives: weather

Typhoon Talas Rainfall Chart / 05 SEP 2011 Western Pacific Weather

Talas Rainfall amounts and the cuase of this high amount of precipation and a look at 16W and the outlook of the week to come.

Invest 94W brings potentiol for Tropical Development while a Frontal System lingers from Japan to China / 19 AUG 2011 13UTC

An invest north of Guam is the main highlight for today in the western pacific, a broad low level circulation attached to widespread disorganized convection makes up this system currently. Upper level winds above this system are favorable for development as well noting the wind shear chart below showing wind shear around 10kts in the vicinity of Guam.

Also below is a model ensemble displaying NGPS, UK and GFS all developing this system in the coming days and bringing it toward the East Coast of Japan, specifically the heavy populated Kanto Plain area by the 24th in to the 25th, thus if this is the case it will be a quick developing system over the course of the next 4-5 days. I would like to strongly note though it is currently in it’s early stages and the model outlook could vastly change. Mainly due to the trough lingering over Japan today, this could end up disrupting the low bringing an abundant amount of wind shear with it while pushing it off to the North East before it gets a chance to develop.

JTWC currently has this area listed as a LOW potential region for development while JMA continues to not have anything out on it. At this time as listed above I believe it does deserve watching, but nothing to get to excited about currently. Another update will be put out tomorrow by either PAT or myself on this system.

On another note the trough over Japan as noted above is stretching back to Korea and in to China today producing rain showers and thunderstorms through the region, from Tokyo to Seoul heavy rain showers have been reported today and it looks to continue over the next 24-48hrs, these rain showers bring the potential for flooding and mudslides specifically in the Tsunami stricken area where the ground is already unstable and loose.

That is all for today, I also want to mention in the next week or so I will start putting out video updates again, so please continue to check in!

~Meteorologist Robert Speta

Possible Tropical Development South Of Guam, while a Trough Of Low Pressure brings Heavy Rains to Korea and Japan / 16 AUG 2011 13UTC

Good news across the tropics today as the threat for development remains relatively low for the time being. There is one invest located just south of Guam that deserves some watching though, it is sitting in an area of relatively low wind shear of 10kts while the heat ocean content remains high with temperatures reaching near 90F through the region. Currently the area remains relatively disorganized though, yet as it continues to track west with the monsoonal trough there is a fair chance of it gaining organization over the next several days. Thus by the weekend the threat for development with this system will increase as it approaches the Philippine Sea.

Below is the model outlook as well, displaying CMC and NGPS both picking up on this system developing at least for a short period of time. Another threat area non-tropical in nature yet bringing severe weather regardless is a trough moving across the Korean Peninsula and extending in to China today. The model outlook below also picks up on this region displaying its projected path in to the Sea of Japan and towards northern Honshu. This area has been bringing thunderstorms across china the last several days and unfortunately the trough as a whole looks like it will continue to persist while for several more days while drifting off towards the East. Therefore an increase in rain showers and thunderstorms along the western portions of the Alps in Japan seems likely during the latter part of this week.

Also noting the heavy thunderstorms and Rainshowers in Korea today..

~Meteorologist Robert Speta