Weather monitoring group WestPacWx has released its 2025 Typhoon Season Outlook, forecasting a slightly more active season across the Western Pacific basin compared to historical norms.
According to the forecast, the Western Pacific is expected to generate:
- 27 named storms
- 18 typhoons
- 7 super typhoons
These numbers exceed the long-term climatological averages of 26 named storms, 16 typhoons, and about 5 to 6 super typhoons annually.
“We’re seeing conditions this year that support more intense and frequent tropical cyclone activity,” said WestPacWx forecaster Robert Speta. “The lingering effects of La Niña and a persistently negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) pattern are key players in this forecast.”
In addition to overall basin activity, the forecast also highlights expectations specific to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR):
- 20 typhoons are projected to enter the PAR
- 10 typhoons are forecast to make landfall in the Philippines
Historically, the PAR sees an average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones per year, with around 8 to 9 making landfall.
The team also notes that La Niña-like atmospheric conditions continue to favor more storm development closer to the Philippines and South China Sea — increasing the likelihood of direct impacts.
Regional Risk
Peak typhoon activity typically occurs from July through October, and WestPacWx is urging communities across the region — especially in the Philippines, Taiwan, southern China, and Japan — to begin preparations early.
“Even if the total number of storms is close to average, it only takes one landfalling typhoon to cause devastating impacts,” Speta added.
What’s Driving the Outlook?
Climate patterns influencing this season include:
- A lingering La Niña or neutral ENSO phase, which tends to favor westward-developing systems.
- A strong negative PDO, observed since 2023, reinforcing favorable sea surface temperatures in the western basin.
WestPacWx said it will continue to monitor developments as the season progresses and will update its outlook if significant changes arise.
Preparedness Is Key
The group encourages residents across typhoon-prone areas to follow updates from national agencies such as PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC, and to keep emergency kits and plans ready ahead of the storm season’s peak.
The first named storm of the season in the Western Pacific typically forms between late March and early May, although tropical systems can occur year-round.