Meteorologists are closely monitoring two significant weather systems in the Western Pacific. One system is currently moving away from the Philippines, having brought heavy rainfall to the Visayas and southern Luzon. The second system, potentially named Butchoy, is developing in the Philippine Sea and is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon, significantly impacting the west coast of Luzon, particularly Regions 1 and 2.
System 1: Low-Pressure Area Moving Away from the Philippines
This first low-pressure area (LPA) has been responsible for heavy rainfall across the Visayas and southern Luzon. Although it hasn’t developed into a named storm, it has still caused substantial impacts:
- Rainfall Amounts: Areas have recorded 50 to 200 millimeters of rain, leading to flooding in several locations. For example, Misamis reported 108 millimeters in just 24 hours, and regions such as Iloilo, Cebu, Mindoro, Leyte, and Samar experienced significant flooding.
- Severe Weather: A waterspout was observed off the coast of Misamis, fortunately not making landfall. Heavy rain warnings were issued across affected areas, even in the absence of signal force warnings, emphasizing the serious nature of the weather despite the lack of a named storm.
System 2: Potential Named Storm Butchoy in the Philippine Sea
The second weather system, which could be named Butchoy, is developing northeast of Luzon. This system is expected to impact the southern Japanese islands, northeastern Luzon, or Taiwan. Regardless of its exact path, it will significantly enhance the southwest monsoon (Habagat), leading to:
- Heavy Rainfall: The inflow on the backside of this system will bring heavy rain to the west coast of Luzon, particularly Region 1. Areas from northwest Luzon down to San Fernando and La Union could see 200 to 300 millimeters of rain, with the potential for severe flooding in mountainous regions.
Forecast and Guidance
Meteorological models, including the ECMWF and GFS, predict that the first LPA will move towards Hainan or southern China, while the second system intensifies in the Philippine Sea. The guidance shows:
- LPA Movement: The first LPA is expected to move westward, continuing to affect southern China and Hainan with its rain bands.
- Developing Storm: The second system is gaining strength, with models indicating a probable tropical depression forming within the next 48 hours. As it moves north, it could impact Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands, bringing tropical storm-strength winds and heavy rain.
IMPACTS ON THE NW COAST OF LUZON
- Persistent Heavy Rainfall: Continuous rainfall is expected along the west coast of Luzon, with significant impacts from Subic to Region 1. Flooding is a major concern, particularly in low-lying and mountainous areas.
- Flood Warnings: Given the expected rainfall amounts, flood warnings will be in effect, and residents are advised to stay alert and prepared for possible evacuations.
Historical Context and Safety Reminders
It is crucial to take this weather situation seriously. Past incidents, such as the tragic loss of several airmen in 2013 who were swept away by waves while taking pictures, underscore the dangers posed by severe weather. Residents should:
- Follow Official Sources: Stay informed through official meteorological agencies such as Pagasa, JMA, and the US military for accurate and timely updates.
- Prepare for Evacuations: Be ready to evacuate if necessary, and ensure that emergency kits and plans are in place.
- Avoid Risky Activities: Refrain from visiting coastal areas or engaging in activities that could put you at risk during severe weather.
Conclusion
The active weather pattern in the Western Pacific presents significant risks for Regions 1 and 2 in the Philippines. With heavy rainfall expected due to the enhanced southwest monsoon, it is vital to stay informed and prepared. Meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as the systems develop.
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