The Western Pacific has been exceptionally active this season, with four tropical storms currently named and active. The main focus for today’s weather update is northern Luzon, where communities are dealing with relentless storms and historic flooding. The Cagayan River has reached a “100-year flood” level according to local government reports, and this is only the beginning of a challenging storm cycle for the area.
This article discusses the ongoing impact of storms, including the effects of Typhoon Nika (Toraji), the incoming threat from Severe Tropical Storm Usagi (Ophul), and the developing Tropical Storm Man-yi. A familiar term being used now is “typhoon fatigue”—a condition that sets in when back-to-back storms wear down both local infrastructure and the patience of communities trying to recover.
Current Storm Situation: A Conveyor Belt of Moisture
Currently, multiple weather systems are sweeping across the Western Pacific, with Usagi forecasted to make landfall in northeastern Luzon. Following closely behind is Tropical Storm Man-yi, which has the potential to develop into a typhoon. The series of storms impacting the Philippines can be likened to a conveyor belt of moisture, where one storm follows another, each bringing heavy rain to already saturated ground.
Northern Luzon has been inundated with rain over the past few weeks due to a series of typhoons—Leon, Kristine, Mars, Nika, and now Usagi. This high frequency of storms has led to severe flooding in fields, communities, and low-lying areas, especially around the Cagayan River, which has been overwhelmed by runoff. Adding to this crisis is the Magat Dam, which was forced to open its floodgates due to the relentless rain, exacerbating the downstream flooding situation.
Usagi’s Path and Potential Impacts
Severe Tropical Storm Usagi is forecasted to make landfall by Thursday morning, skirting northeastern Luzon and continuing toward the west. The storm has steadily gained strength, with agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projecting it will approach typhoon intensity near landfall. However, even if it doesn’t reach typhoon strength, the primary threat remains the rain Usagi will bring to northern Luzon’s mountains. This rainfall will add further pressure on already saturated areas, increasing the risk of landslides and flash flooding.
Model guidance from various meteorological agencies, including JMA, JTWC, and regional centers in Hong Kong and Taiwan, indicate that Usagi may turn sharply northward, potentially staying offshore. However, this is too close for comfort, as even a near miss will bring heavy rain to Luzon’s upland areas. These mountainous regions feed into the Cagayan River, adding to the flooding threat downstream.
Man-yi’s Expected Path
As Usagi moves out of the region, Tropical Storm Man-yi is expected to follow. Man-yi is already producing heavy rain over Saipan and Rota, and it’s projected to reach the Philippines over the weekend. While there’s a chance that Man-yi will track further north, sparing Luzon from a direct hit, it may still bring significant rainfall if it skirts the coast.
The upcoming cold surge, which refers to the cooler air pushing southward from China, could also play a role in Man-yi’s path. If this cool air surge strengthens, it may help shear apart Man-yi, weakening it before it reaches the Philippines. However, if the surge is weaker or slower, Man-yi could take a more westerly path, bringing heavy rainfall over the weekend.
Typhoon Fatigue: A Reality for Northern Luzon
“Typhoon fatigue” is a term that encapsulates the weariness people feel from dealing with one storm after another. This isn’t just a physical toll—preparing for repeated typhoons demands mental resilience. The situation in Cagayan and nearby areas exemplifies this, as communities brace for yet another cycle of potential evacuations, flood defense efforts, and damage control. Each storm has its own unique effects, from altering flood patterns to affecting regions not previously impacted. People who have been safe through earlier storms may be caught off guard by changes in subsequent storm paths, as each storm poses new challenges.
A Potential Shift in the Pattern by December
The intensity of this storm cycle is partly due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a climate pattern known to intensify tropical activity. Forecasts suggest that by the end of November, the MJO phase may wane, potentially leading to a quieter December for the Western Pacific. This shift would provide much-needed relief for communities in northern Luzon, allowing them to recover and prepare for the dry season.
Until then, residents should be vigilant, particularly in flood-prone areas. With Usagi and Man-yi both threatening northern Luzon in the coming days, emergency preparations and timely weather updates are essential for minimizing the impact of these storms.
FAQ: Back-to-Back Storms and Flooding in Northern Luzon
Q: Why is Northern Luzon experiencing such severe flooding?
A: Northern Luzon has been inundated by several storms over the past few weeks, resulting in overly saturated ground. The repeated rainfall has caused the Cagayan River to rise to a historic “100-year flood” level. The Magat Dam, which helps manage river levels, has had to release water due to the high inflows, worsening the flood conditions downstream.
Q: What is “typhoon fatigue”?
A: “Typhoon fatigue” describes the physical and mental exhaustion experienced by communities facing consecutive storms. When one storm after another hits, people may feel worn down by the continuous preparation and recovery efforts. Despite this fatigue, it’s important to stay prepared, as each storm brings unique risks.
Q: What are the expected impacts of Severe Tropical Storm Usagi (Ophul)?
A: Usagi is expected to bring heavy rainfall, especially to mountainous areas in northeastern Luzon. This rain could trigger further flooding and landslides. The storm’s path may keep it offshore, but even a close approach could bring significant rain, adding to the risk of downstream flooding along the Cagayan River.
Q: How could Tropical Storm Man-yi affect the region?
A: Man-yi is likely to approach the Philippines over the weekend. Current forecasts suggest it may track slightly north, possibly sparing Luzon from a direct impact. However, it could still bring substantial rainfall if it skirts the coast, especially if it’s not fully weakened by wind shear from a nearby cold surge.
Q: What is a “cold surge” and how might it influence Man-yi’s path?
A: A cold surge refers to a push of cooler air from the north, often originating in China, that moves southward. Cold surges can help weaken or deflect tropical storms by introducing wind shear. If a strong cold surge arrives in time, it could disrupt Man-yi’s structure and reduce its rainfall impact on Luzon.
Q: When can Northern Luzon expect a break from these storms?
A: While November has been exceptionally active, weather patterns may shift by December as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase diminishes. This could mean fewer storms and more stable conditions in the Western Pacific, providing relief for affected regions.
Q: What areas should be on high alert for flooding and landslides?
A: Low-lying areas around the Cagayan River are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Additionally, mountainous regions in northeastern Luzon are at risk of landslides due to the saturated ground. Areas close to Magat Dam may also experience rising water levels, depending on rain inflow and dam releases.
Q: Are there any precautions people should take during this storm cycle?
A: Residents should prepare for potential evacuations in flood-prone areas, stay informed with official weather updates, and avoid traveling through floodwaters. It’s also important to keep emergency supplies ready, as access to food, water, and power may be limited during heavy rains.
Q: Will this pattern of storms continue through December?
A: Forecasts suggest that storm activity may decrease by December. The MJO phase, which influences tropical storm formation, may shift to a quieter phase, reducing the likelihood of further storms in the Western Pacific. However, for now, it’s essential to stay vigilant as Usagi and Man-yi approach Luzon.
Q: How can people support ongoing weather updates for the region?
A: Weather updates require resources for web hosting, satellite imaging, and forecasting tools. Some meteorologists provide free updates through platforms like Patreon, where small donations can help maintain the quality and availability of forecasts for communities in storm-prone regions.
With Usagi and Man-yi approaching, residents are urged to stay informed and prioritize safety. The recent floods and back-to-back storms are a stark reminder of the importance of resilience and preparedness in typhoon-prone areas.