Updated: 00:00 GMT by Meteorologist Robert Speta
Overview of Typhoon Ofel (Usagi)
As Typhoon Ofel (internationally named Usagi) bears down on Northern Luzon, residents are advised to prepare for what could be a significant weather event. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are all closely monitoring the situation as Ofel intensifies over the Philippine Sea. Local warnings are already in effect, with areas in Isabela, Aurora, Cagayan, and Batanes likely to experience heavy rainfall and high winds starting Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
To track updates and view the latest advisories, please visit PAGASA, JMA, or JTWC.
What’s Happening with the Storms in the Western Pacific?
Currently, the Western Pacific is unusually active, with four named storms impacting the region. Typhoon Ofel is the immediate concern for the Philippines, but it’s not alone. In addition to Ofel, which is positioned due east of Northern Luzon, the region is also monitoring:
- Typhoon Manyi – Approaching Guam and expected to head toward Northern Luzon by the weekend.
- Typhoon Toraji – Moving just south of Hong Kong, bringing heavy rain and wind to coastal areas.
- Residual impacts of Typhoon Nika (Toraji) – Which has already passed but left significant rainfall that’s contributing to the ongoing flood situation in Luzon.
The combination of these storms is creating what meteorologists call a “conveyor belt” effect, with moisture-laden air continuously streaming into Luzon. This setup is a major driver of the current, persistent rainfall and potential for additional flooding.
Current Status of Typhoon Ofel
Typhoon Ofel is rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea, with strong convective activity indicating strengthening. The storm is expected to make landfall in northeastern Luzon, bringing rainfall to Cagayan, Isabela, and surrounding areas. PAGASA has already issued a Signal 1 warning, which may be upgraded as the storm nears.
While PAGASA’s signal system helps alert residents to expected conditions, meteorologists, including Robert Speta, note that these warnings may not fully convey the full impact. The storm’s winds may not be catastrophic, but the cumulative effect of rainfall over already saturated ground could result in severe flooding. In addition, areas along the Cagayan River are especially vulnerable due to recent floods, and this storm threatens to exacerbate conditions.
Potential Impact Path and Timeline
The storm’s path indicates it will cross Northern Luzon, likely moving through Isabela, Aurora, Cagayan, and the Batanes islands. By Thursday morning, regions in northern Luzon are expected to feel the strongest effects, including increasing rainfall, gusty winds, and rising river levels. As it progresses, Ofel will also impact Taiwan, with heavy rainfall expected across the northern portions of the island.
Preparations and Expected Challenges
Flood Risk for Cagayan River
Ofel’s biggest threat may not be its winds but rather the rainfall over Northern Luzon’s already saturated terrain. Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas should take precautionary measures, particularly in areas adjacent to the Cagayan River. Despite rumors attributing recent flood levels to the Ma-Gat Dam’s water releases, the majority of flooding stems from relentless rainfall upstream. High volumes of rain in the mountainous areas are funneling down to low-lying regions, causing river levels to surge.
Speta emphasizes that it’s vital for residents to be prepared for potential evacuations and to have emergency kits ready. With the ground already saturated, even moderate additional rainfall could tip the balance, leading to flash floods and landslides.
Coastal and Offshore Impact
The coastal regions of northeastern Luzon and the Batanes Islands are expected to experience significant storm surge, with waves ranging between 3-6 meters (up to 20 feet). Mariners and coastal communities should be aware of high wave threats, especially as the storm approaches Luzon.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect After Ofel
Typhoon Man-yi Expected Over the Weekend
As Typhoon Ofel clears out, another storm—Typhoon Mani—is tracking toward Luzon. Expected to reach the northern Philippines by Sunday or Monday, Mani could bring further rain and compound existing flood risks.
The anticipated “cold surge” from China could weaken Mani somewhat before landfall, but even if it doesn’t make landfall as a strong typhoon, it will likely contribute to further flooding in already inundated areas.
Why PAGASA’s Warnings Matter
PAGASA has taken proactive steps in recent years to issue warnings earlier, a practice developed in response to past events like Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda). Current advisories for Typhoon Manyi are well in advance of its approach, a testament to improved communication and forecasting methods. This advance warning system is especially crucial as consecutive storms increase risks, and timely evacuations may save lives.
Preparing for “Typhoon Fatigue”
The psychological strain of back-to-back storms, known as “typhoon fatigue,” can lead to complacency and under-preparation. However, it’s essential that residents understand the unique threats each storm poses, even if they’ve been through similar events recently. Preparations, like evacuation planning and understanding local shelter options, remain key to safety.
Long-Term Flood Concerns
Once Ofel and Mani pass, Northern Luzon will face ongoing flood risks. Mountainous regions act as natural water reservoirs, and the rain they retain will gradually drain down into valleys and plains over time. Therefore, rivers like the Cagayan may remain high well into the coming weeks, even if rainfall subsides.
FAQ: Key Questions about Typhoon Ofel and the Current Storm Activity
Q1: How strong is Typhoon Ofel expected to be upon landfall?
Ofel is forecasted to intensify further and could be a severe tropical storm or a Category 1 typhoon. Winds are expected to reach around 120 km/h (75 mph), but the main concern is the rainfall that could lead to further flooding.
Q2: Is the Ma-Gat Dam responsible for the Cagayan River flooding?
No, recent flooding along the Cagayan River primarily results from persistent, intense rainfall. Although the dam has released water as a precaution, the majority of the river’s rise is due to upstream rainfall.
Q3: What is “typhoon fatigue,” and why is it a concern?
Typhoon fatigue occurs when communities become overwhelmed by successive storms, leading to reduced vigilance. With Ofel, Mani, and other systems impacting Luzon consecutively, this fatigue could affect readiness and response.
Q4: What can I do to prepare for Typhoon Ofel’s arrival?
Residents in flood-prone areas should have emergency supplies, such as water, food, and first aid kits. Knowing your nearest evacuation site is crucial, as is monitoring official updates.
Q5: Will Typhoon Mani impact Northern Luzon, and how soon?
Mani is expected to arrive by late weekend or early next week. While it may weaken due to wind shear, it will likely bring more rainfall, which could worsen conditions in Northern Luzon.
Q6: How can I get reliable information on these storms?
For the latest information, monitor updates from PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC.
Q7: Why are the rivers in Northern Luzon still high?
The mountainous terrain in Northern Luzon retains significant rainfall, which gradually flows into lower areas, especially rivers. Even after the storms pass, floodwaters may remain high due to slow drainage.
Q8: Are the high waves expected to impact areas outside of northeastern Luzon?
Yes, waves between 3-6 meters are anticipated along the northeastern Luzon coast and near the Batanes Islands. Mariners should avoid these waters due to the hazardous conditions.
Residents in Northern Luzon and nearby regions are urged to stay informed and prepared as this series of storms progresses. Typhoon Ofel will bring immediate challenges, with Typhoon Mani likely to follow. Stay vigilant and prioritize safety.