In recent weeks, the Philippines has been hammered by a series of typhoons, with Typhoon Man-yi (local name Pepito) being one of the latest to impact the region. Over the past two weeks, multiple storm systems have made landfall or passed close to the country, bringing widespread rainfall and triggering significant flooding in various areas. As Man-yi continues to weaken, it offers an opportunity to reflect on the current weather conditions and what lies ahead for the rest of November and December in the Philippines.
The Current Status of Typhoon Man-yi (Pepito)
As of the latest reports, Typhoon Man-yi has weakened into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of approximately 100 km/h and a central pressure near 1000 hPa. Currently located northwest of Luzon, Man-yi is facing increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion from the north, which are disrupting its structure. Satellite imagery reveals that much of the storm’s upper-level cloud cover is being blown toward the north and east, signaling its gradual disintegration.
The system is expected to bring occasional showers to areas such as Hong Kong and the eastern coast of Hainan Island as it slowly drifts westward. However, the dominant weather pattern now influencing the region is the northeast monsoon (known locally as the “Amihan”), which is beginning to assert its presence.
The Role of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)
With the weakening of Man-yi, attention shifts to the Amihan, a seasonal weather phenomenon that typically begins in November and lasts until early March. This northeast monsoon is characterized by cooler, drier air originating from Siberia and northern China, which flows southward across East Asia, the South China Sea, and the Philippines.
The Amihan brings significant changes to the weather:
- Cooler Temperatures: Northern and central parts of the Philippines, including Metro Manila, typically experience lower temperatures during this period. Daytime highs remain warm (around 30–32°C), but nighttime lows can drop to the low 20s, especially in higher-altitude regions like Baguio.
- Drier Conditions: Compared to the wet and stormy conditions of the previous months, the Amihan season brings relatively dry weather to much of the country. However, eastern sections of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao may still experience rain due to the interaction of the monsoon with easterly winds and occasional low-pressure areas.
- Coastal Waves and Surf: The monsoon also generates long-period swells along the eastern seaboard, which are eagerly anticipated by surfers in areas like Siargao and Baler.
Ongoing Effects of Recent Typhoons
Despite the respite offered by the Amihan, the Philippines is still grappling with the aftermath of back-to-back typhoons, including Man-yi. In Cagayan Valley, for instance, water levels remain elevated due to heavy rainfall over recent weeks. Dams such as Magat Dam have been forced to release excess water, causing downstream flooding in nearby communities.
While conditions are improving, it will take time for floodwaters to recede completely. Authorities continue to monitor affected areas and urge residents to remain vigilant, especially with the risk of localized thunderstorms and residual flooding.
November-December Weather Outlook for the Philippines
As the country transitions into the latter part of the year, here’s what to expect weather-wise:
- Rainfall Patterns:
- November and December typically see a mix of dry and wet conditions. Eastern sections of the Philippines, including Samar, Leyte, and parts of Mindanao, are prone to rainfall due to the monsoon trough and potential low-pressure systems.
- In contrast, the western parts of the country, such as Palawan and western Visayas, often enjoy more sunshine during this period.
- Typhoon Activity:
- While the peak of the typhoon season is in the months of July to October, November and December are still within the typhoon season. The Philippines remains at risk of late-season tropical cyclones, which tend to form farther east and move westward toward the Philippine Sea.
- Temperature Trends:
- Cooler nights and mornings are expected, especially in Luzon and the highlands. Coastal areas will feel the moderating effects of the surrounding seas, but overall, temperatures will be milder than the preceding months.
- Holiday Weather:
- For many Filipinos, the Amihan season coincides with preparations for Christmas and New Year’s celebrations. While the drier weather is welcome for outdoor activities, occasional rains may still occur, particularly in the eastern parts of the country.
Broader Regional Impacts: Cold Surges and Snow in Japan
The Amihan is not just a Philippine phenomenon; it is part of a larger regional weather system. Cold surges associated with the monsoon can extend their influence to neighboring countries, including China, Vietnam, and even Japan. These surges bring colder air, stratus clouds, and occasional snow to parts of Japan, including the Japanese Alps and ski resorts in Nagano and Niigata.
As Man-yi fades, cold air from the north is already beginning to spill into East Asia, signaling the onset of wintry weather in northern regions. The contrast between warm tropical air and cold polar air often creates dynamic weather patterns, including strong winds and rough seas, which can affect maritime activities in the region.
Weather Tips for November-December in the Philippines
For those living in or visiting the Philippines during this season, here are some practical tips:
- Prepare for Temperature Changes: While daytime temperatures remain warm, evenings and mornings can be noticeably cooler. Light jackets or sweaters may be needed, especially in northern Luzon and mountainous areas.
- Monitor Weather Updates: Stay informed about potential low-pressure systems or typhoons. The late-season storms can still pack a punch and disrupt travel plans.
- Surf Safely: If you’re planning to catch the waves in surf hotspots like Siargao, ensure you check the surf conditions and adhere to local safety guidelines.
- Celebrate Responsibly: With the holidays approaching, be mindful of ongoing recovery efforts in storm-affected areas and consider supporting local communities through donations or volunteer work.
Looking Ahead: Building Resilience
As the Philippines faces the challenges of an increasingly unpredictable climate, strengthening disaster preparedness and resilience remains crucial. The country’s experience with consecutive typhoons this year underscores the importance of robust infrastructure, effective communication, and community engagement in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events.
For now, as the Amihan season ushers in cooler, calmer weather, it is a moment of reprieve for many. However, the need for vigilance and proactive planning persists, as the archipelago remains one of the most typhoon-prone regions in the world.
By understanding the dynamics of Typhoon Man-yi’s weakening and the broader climatic trends for November and December, residents and stakeholders can better prepare for the weather ahead—whether it’s for daily routines, holiday celebrations, or long-term resilience efforts.
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