A strong cold surge continues to influence weather across East Asia, marking a clear divide between the cool air over Siberia and Japan and the tropical conditions in the Southern Philippines. Satellite microwave imagery highlights this stark boundary, with dry air and lower dew points extending into Taiwan and Northern Luzon due to the latest influx of cool air.
This demarcation line is also contributing to unsettled weather in parts of Central and Southern Luzon, as well as Northern Visayas. Satellite imagery reveals a zone of convection along the leading edge of this cold surge, driven by easterly winds. This shear line is expected to remain active over the coming days.
Rainfall Outlook
Forecasts indicate enhanced precipitation in areas south of Manila, particularly in Bicol, Northern Samar, and Leyte. Hour-by-hour futurecasts suggest significant rainfall accumulation between Wednesday and Thursday, with classic shear line conditions developing in these regions. In contrast, areas north of Manila are likely to remain mostly dry.
Rainfall projections show totals of 200-300 millimeters in Mindoro and 100-200 millimeters in areas like Legazpi. While regions such as Cagayan Valley and Metro Manila are expected to stay dry, Southeastern Luzon will bear the brunt of the precipitation this week.
Cooler Temperatures
As the cold surge persists, cooler-than-usual temperatures are being reported. In Baguio City, mountain fog and cloudy conditions are forecast, with lows reaching 15°C. Nearby areas, such as Benguet, have even recorded single-digit temperatures at night.
While the southern regions, including Mindanao and Southern Visayas, are experiencing less wet conditions, it is the northeastern monsoon that continues to drive significant weather patterns. Large swells are also affecting coastal waters, with strong northeasterly winds generating high waves.
Regional Weather Highlights
Japan continues to grapple with sea-effect snow, which has been persistent in recent weeks. Snowfall accumulations have been significant, particularly on Thursday, as cold air flows over the relatively warmer waters of the Sea of Japan.
Looking ahead to the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) long-range forecast, no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Northern Hemisphere through the mid-month. The focus remains on the impacts of the cold surge and shear line activity across the region.
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