A broad low pressure area (LPA) identified east of Mindanao, near Palau and Yap, is now drawing increased attention from meteorologists and weather enthusiasts across the western Pacific. While it remains disorganized as of Tuesday, satellite imagery and surface observations point to active convection and falling pressure near the system’s center — early signs that this feature could potentially evolve into a more defined tropical disturbance.
Whether or not this LPA becomes a named system, it is already beginning to influence weather across large portions of the Philippines, particularly in the eastern regions. Over the next several days, expect a marked increase in rainfall across northeastern Mindanao, the Eastern Visayas, and parts of Southern Luzon, with localized flooding possible in areas most exposed to enhanced onshore flow.
What We Know So Far
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has officially tagged the developing system as a low pressure area. Located east of Mindanao, the system is gradually moving west-northwestward, guided by the periphery of the West Pacific High situated just north of Guam.
Surface reports from Palau and Yap provide further insight into the system’s characteristics. Palau reported surface pressures as low as 976 hPa with winds from the north and frequent thunderstorms, while Yap registered 978 hPa, indicating proximity to the developing low-level center. Both locations have been experiencing widespread cumulonimbus cloud cover and convective bands — classic early signs of tropical organization.
Despite that, this system is not currently expected to intensify into a typhoon, due to the lack of ideal upper-level conditions such as enhanced divergence or strong low-level inflow. However, the possibility of it becoming a tropical depression cannot be ruled out.
“Tropical classification really depends on interpretation at this point,” said Robert Speta, meteorologist and Western Pacific Weather contributor. “If a forecaster at PAGASA sees convection wrapping around a low-level circulation, they may opt to issue a name. But from a practical standpoint — name or no name — this LPA is bringing in rain.”
Rainfall Outlook
Forecast models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall developing across eastern Mindanao beginning Wednesday evening, then spreading into the Eastern Visayas by Thursday and Friday. Regions likely to experience the heaviest rainfall include:
- Siargao and Surigao del Norte – showers start intensifying Thursday morning.
- Samar and Leyte – widespread rain from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
- Bicol and southeastern Luzon – rains increase Friday and into Saturday.
- Metro Manila and Calabarzon – scattered rain possible by Saturday into Sunday.
The rainfall pattern associated with this system will be further complicated by a northeast monsoon surge, which could enhance precipitation over Luzon as the weekend approaches.
Five-day precipitation forecasts show accumulation of 100 to 150 mm in many areas along the east coast of the Philippines, with isolated pockets possibly exceeding 200 mm — particularly in elevated terrain. Yellow and red shades on rainfall models signal potential for localized flooding, especially in vulnerable regions such as parts of Samar, Eastern Mindanao, and the Bicol Peninsula.
Timing and Areas Affected
| Region | Rain Onset | Rain Peak | Potential Hazards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Mindanao | Wednesday night | Thursday | Flash flooding, thunderstorms |
| Eastern Visayas | Thursday morning | Friday morning | Moderate to heavy rainfall |
| Southern Luzon | Friday | Saturday | Localized flooding |
| Northern Luzon | Late Saturday | Sunday | Rain-enhanced by cold surge |
| Metro Manila | Friday night | Sunday | Cloudy with scattered rain |
| Palawan | Remains mostly dry | Through Friday | Light showers by the weekend |
While Cebu and other western Visayas provinces may receive some rainfall, the heaviest and most persistent rains are expected to remain concentrated along the eastern seaboard.
What About Tropical Development?
At present, this system lacks a well-defined center and is still rather broad in structure. While global models such as ECMWF have hinted at tighter circulation, the system would require sustained convection and low-level consolidation to meet the criteria for tropical depression status.
“There is convection and a spin, but the ingredients for intensification just aren’t all there,” Speta explained. “The jet stream is further north, and we don’t see significant wind shear to tear the system apart — but we also don’t have that upper-level support needed for rapid development.”
PAGASA’s designation of the system as an LPA reflects its current state: disorganized but capable of producing widespread precipitation.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next?
After crossing the central Philippines, the LPA is expected to interact with a cold surge from the northeast, potentially leading to another round of rain across Luzon over the weekend. However, by early next week, drier air may begin to push in from the west, possibly improving conditions across western Luzon and Palawan.
Long-range models show no clear signs of additional tropical development through late March. With weakening cold surges and increasing ridging over Luzon, the region could be edging closer to the official start of the dry season — though no formal announcement has yet been made by PAGASA.
Staying Safe and Informed
While this system may not become a strong tropical cyclone, it still poses a risk to communities in its path. Flooding remains the most significant hazard, especially in low-lying and mountainous areas prone to runoff and landslides.
Residents are urged to stay updated through official channels such as PAGASA, local disaster agencies, and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Always heed local advisories and warnings, particularly regarding evacuation or suspension of classes and work.
Q&A: Understanding This Week’s Weather
Q: Is this low pressure area going to become a typhoon?
A: Unlikely. Current conditions do not favor significant intensification. It may become a tropical depression, but as of now, the structure remains weak and disorganized.
Q: Will this affect the whole Philippines?
A: No. The heaviest impacts will be felt in eastern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, and southeastern Luzon. Western regions like Palawan and parts of northern Luzon will see little to no rainfall through midweek.
Q: When will the rain start?
A: Rain is expected to begin late Wednesday in northeastern Mindanao, with widespread rain likely by Thursday across much of the eastern Philippines.
Q: What areas are at risk of flooding?
A: Siargao, Leyte, Samar, Sorsogon, Albay, and parts of Laguna and Quezon Province are at increased risk. Rainfall totals of over 150mm could trigger localized flooding or landslides.
Q: Will this be named?
A: That’s up to PAGASA and other meteorological agencies. If the system consolidates further and maintains convection, it could be upgraded to a tropical depression. If so, it would be given a local name by PAGASA.
Q: What should I do to prepare?
A: Stay informed. Clear drainage areas, prepare emergency kits, and avoid travel to flood-prone regions when rain is heaviest.
Final Thoughts
While the forecast doesn’t currently point to a destructive storm, the LPA east of Mindanao still demands attention due to its rain potential. With already saturated soils in some regions and the threat of enhanced monsoon interaction, even weak systems can produce damaging conditions.
As always, monitor updates from PAGASA, local authorities, and trusted weather outlets. Keep your plans flexible, especially if you live along the eastern coast of the Philippines.
And remember — being prepared is never an overreaction when it comes to weather.