Tropical Storm Gorio, known internationally as Typhoon Podul, has weakened over southern China after bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of the region. In its wake, a broad trough is developing over the Philippines and the West Philippine Sea, raising the likelihood of increased rainfall over the next several days.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has identified two low-pressure areas — one to the west of Luzon and another to the east — both with a low chance of tropical development. Ensemble model guidance also indicates potential organization of these lows, with the western disturbance showing stronger clustering of development tracks.
Forecasters expect neither system to intensify significantly, but both are likely to increase instability and enhance rainfall for the Philippines, Vietnam, and Hainan. The eastern low may eventually track toward Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands early next week.
“This is a classic monsoonal gyre setup,” meteorologist Robert Speta said. “Even without typhoon formation, this pattern can still bring widespread rainfall and gusty conditions.”
Philippines Impact
Moisture-rich air is expected to increase showers along the west coast of Luzon starting Friday, continuing into the weekend. Region I, including Pangasinan, San Fernando, and Subic, could see gusts up to 40–50 kph with on-and-off rain. Mindanao and Manila may also experience steady winds and scattered showers. Conditions are expected to gradually improve by mid-next week.
Vietnam & Hainan Impact
The developing western low may strengthen into a tropical depression as it approaches northern Vietnam. Heavy rainfall is likely, along with rough seas in the West Philippine Sea, where wave heights may reach 3–4 meters.
While forecasters stress that the setup does not currently indicate typhoon development, residents in affected regions are advised to prepare for localized flooding, choppy seas, and travel disruptions.