Tropical Storm Ramil (international name Fengshen) was upgraded Friday by the Japan Meteorological Agency as it nears landfall along the eastern coast of the Philippines, bringing strong winds and heavy rains to parts of Samar and the Bicol region.
Satellite imagery shows the storm’s low-level circulation center positioned north of its main convection area, indicating the potential for the most intense winds and rainfall near and south of the center. PAGASA has issued Signal Force Warnings across portions of the Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and parts of Central and Northern Luzon. Additional warnings are expected for Metro Manila, Cavite, and northern Mindoro as the system continues westward.
Meteorologist Robert Speta of Western Pacific Weather said the storm’s track remains uncertain within the cone of error, and residents should not focus solely on the center line. “Heavy rainfall will extend far beyond the center,” Speta explained, noting that both the northern and southern flanks will experience significant impacts due to moisture convergence and interaction with a high-pressure ridge over Taiwan.
Model guidance, including the new Google DeepMind forecast, indicates a landfall near Catanduanes before crossing toward Manila and exiting near Subic Bay or southern Pangasinan by late Saturday or early Sunday. The system’s proximity to the Sierra Madre Mountains could enhance rainfall totals between 150 to 200 millimeters in Cagayan Valley and the mountain range, with 50 to 100 millimeters possible in surrounding lowlands.
The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official forecast places the storm slightly farther north than PAGASA’s, though most convection remains concentrated to the south. The interaction between Romeo’s circulation and an approaching autumn frontal boundary may also bring rainfall to Taiwan and the Batanes area.
Despite its classification as a tropical storm, officials warn that Ramil’s rainfall could trigger localized flooding and landslides across Northern Visayas and Southern Luzon. Residents in affected areas are urged to stay updated through official advisories and take necessary precautions.
“This storm spun up quickly, just as expected,” Speta added. “Even though it’s not a typhoon, it’s still a major rainmaker. Stay alert, stay prepared, and most importantly, stay safe.”