Tropical Storm Hagupit has now entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, where PAGASA has assigned the local name Caloy. Despite the new name, this is not expected to become a major typhoon threat for the Philippines. In fact, guidance continues to indicate the system weakens as it approaches the archipelago.
Right now, Hagupit remains a relatively weak tropical storm with winds around 65–70 km/h and pressure near 998 hPa according to JMA. Satellite imagery does show improving convection and better inflow from the south, so some strengthening is still expected in the near term while it tracks westward across the Philippine Sea.
The biggest immediate impacts are focused around Yap, where Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect. Heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and gusty winds are expected through Friday into Saturday as the center passes nearby. Winds could gust to around 70 mph at times in stronger squalls, especially in the right-front quadrant of the storm.
As the system continues westward though, it begins running into increasing wind shear and dry air north of the Philippines. Nearly all major guidance, including ECMWF, GFS, and even the newer AI guidance from Google DeepMind, weakens the system significantly by early next week.
That does not mean zero impacts for the Philippines. Even as the circulation weakens, leftover tropical moisture is still expected to enhance rainfall across portions of Visayas, Mindanao, and southern Luzon from late weekend into early next week. In addition, rough surf and elevated waves are expected along east-facing coastlines exposed to the Pacific.
For now, northern Luzon including Manila remains mostly hot and dry under the influence of the subtropical ridge, while eastern Visayas and Mindanao continue to see scattered showers from the easterlies and leftover tropical moisture.
This remains an evolving forecast, especially regarding how much of the storm survives as it nears the Philippines, so continue monitoring updates through PAGASA, JTWC, JMA, and other official sources.