Super Typhoon Bavi is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility late Tuesday into Wednesday, where it will receive the local name Indai, but forecasters say the powerful cyclone is unlikely to make landfall in the Philippines.
Instead, the storm is forecast to track northward across the Philippine Sea before approaching Taiwan and Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands. While the center of circulation is expected to remain well away from the country, the typhoon will significantly strengthen the southwest monsoon, or Habagat, bringing several days of heavy rainfall to western portions of the Philippines through the end of the week and into the weekend.
The greatest concern for the Philippines will not be damaging typhoon winds but prolonged periods of heavy rain capable of triggering flooding and landslides.
Powerful storm approaching Taiwan
Satellite imagery continues to show a well organized and intense tropical cyclone with a broad circulation and strong inflow wrapping around the southern side of the system. Although the storm has experienced some wind shear along its northern edge, it remains a dangerous typhoon as it moves west northwestward.
Forecast guidance indicates Bavi will begin turning north before passing near Japan’s Ishigaki and Miyako Islands. The current track also brings the system close to northern Taiwan, including the Taipei metropolitan area, before weakening over southeastern China.
Wind gusts exceeding 200 kilometers per hour are possible across portions of the southern Ryukyu Islands, with sustained winds reaching approximately 185 kilometers per hour.
Taiwan faces a significant flooding threat as the island’s steep terrain enhances rainfall totals. Localized amounts could exceed 500 millimeters, with isolated mountain locations potentially approaching 1,000 millimeters. Heavy rain is also expected to spread into southeastern China as the storm weakens inland, creating the potential for additional flooding.
Enhanced Habagat to bring days of heavy rain
Although the typhoon’s center will remain north of the Philippines, its circulation will strengthen the southwest monsoon across the archipelago.
Persistent southwesterly winds are expected to develop from Thursday through the weekend, producing frequent rain bands across western Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, portions of Western Visayas and eventually Metro Manila.
Forecast rainfall totals of 200 to 300 millimeters are possible across many locations, with isolated mountain communities potentially receiving more than 500 millimeters where rain bands repeatedly move over the same areas.
Flooding will be possible in low lying and poor drainage areas, especially in Metro Manila, while mountainous terrain across western Luzon could face an increased risk of landslides and rockfalls.
Areas near the Cordillera Mountains, including Baguio, are expected to receive prolonged rainfall. Additional showers may extend into parts of the Cagayan Valley, though the heaviest precipitation is expected along western facing coastlines exposed to the monsoon flow.
Strong onshore winds are also expected along the western coast of Luzon, though widespread typhoon force winds are not anticipated. Northern areas, including Batanes and portions of northern Luzon, could still experience tropical storm conditions with localized wind damage possible.
Rainfall welcomed despite flood concerns
The incoming rainfall also carries benefits for areas experiencing unusually dry conditions.
Water levels at Angat Dam remain critically low following an extended period of below normal rainfall, and agricultural areas across northern Luzon have struggled with limited irrigation supplies.
While flooding remains a concern, the widespread precipitation is expected to provide much needed relief for reservoirs and farmland across parts of the country.
Mariana Islands recovering from Super Typhoon Bobi
Meanwhile, residents across the Mariana Islands continue recovery efforts following the passage of Super Typhoon Bobi.
The storm crossed directly over Rota with estimated winds near 150 miles per hour, causing widespread structural damage. Despite the destructive conditions, no fatalities have been reported across the islands.
The outcome contrasts sharply with previous tropical cyclones that produced fatalities in the region and highlights the importance of timely evacuations and residents following official warnings by remaining indoors during the height of the storm.
Another tropical disturbance being monitored
Forecast models are also beginning to indicate the potential development of another tropical system east of the Mariana Islands later this week.
Current projections from both the ECMWF and GFS suggest a tropical storm could form near the Northern Mariana Islands within the next four to five days. At this time, the system is not expected to become a typhoon, and most forecast guidance keeps it north of Saipan.
Confidence remains low given the extended forecast period, but meteorologists will continue monitoring the disturbance for any changes.
Forecast outlook
For the Philippines, the primary threat through early next week remains heavy monsoon rainfall rather than direct impacts from Super Typhoon Bavi.
The most significant rainfall is expected from Friday through Monday, increasing the risk of flash flooding, urban flooding and landslides across western portions of the country. Residents in flood prone communities are encouraged to closely monitor local forecasts and any rainfall advisories issued by PAGASA as the enhanced southwest monsoon develops.