As the Philippines continues to experience messy weather patterns, the question looms: could a tropical storm be brewing in the long-range forecast? Meteorologist Robert Speta provides a detailed analysis in this update, breaking down current conditions, potential developments, and historical context for storms during this time of year.
Current Weather Situation: Rain and Low Pressure
The weather across the Philippines has been dominated by a combination of factors, including a low-pressure area (LPA), the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the northeast monsoon (locally known as amihan). Together, these elements have brought significant rainfall to the eastern sections of the country.
“We have an area of low pressure just off the east coast of Leyte and Samar,” Speta explained. “This system, while not expected to develop into a tropical depression or typhoon, is interacting with the ITCZ and the northeast monsoon, resulting in heavy showers along the eastern coastline.”
While rainfall has primarily affected the eastern regions, including parts of Samar, Leyte, and southeastern Luzon, some areas farther west may also experience scattered showers as the system gradually moves. However, not everyone is feeling the effects. Speta noted that residents in areas like Negros have reported drier conditions, underscoring the localized nature of the rainfall.
Monitoring Low-Level Circulation
Using advanced meteorological tools such as ASCAT imagery, Speta identified a low-level circulation associated with the current weather system. ASCAT, a satellite-based tool, measures wind patterns by analyzing wave directions, helping meteorologists pinpoint areas of concern.
“There’s a low-level center east of Leyte and Samar, but high winds are well to the north,” Speta noted. “It’s not a true tropical low by any means, but it’s contributing to the heavy rain we’re seeing.”
Weekend Outlook
Heading into the weekend, the heaviest rainfall is expected to continue across Samar and southeastern Luzon, with potential for thunderstorms extending into the Metro Manila area by Sunday or Monday.
“Areas like Aurora and the Sierra Madre mountains could see significant rain due to the interaction of cooler air from the north with the existing moisture,” Speta said.
Farther south, regions such as Cebu and Palawan are also likely to experience scattered showers over the weekend. Conditions are expected to gradually improve by Monday or Tuesday, with isolated rain remaining in some areas.
Long-Range Forecast: December Storm Potential
Looking further ahead, Speta highlighted the possibility of tropical activity in the Philippine Sea. While current weather models, including the ECMWF and GFS, show signals of a developing system around December 3–4, the likelihood of significant development remains low.
“The ECMWF hints at something trying to form, but the signals aren’t very strong,” Speta explained. “The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) suggests below-average rainfall during this period but indicates an increase around December 11–17. It’s something to watch, but the models don’t show anything particularly concerning at this time.”
Speta also reminded viewers that December storms, while rare, are not unprecedented. He pointed to 2012’s Typhoon Bopha (Pablo), which struck Mindanao as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread devastation.
“Bopha was a December storm that tracked south of 10 degrees north due to high wind shear and cooler air farther north. It serves as a reminder that storms can still form this late in the year, though they are usually confined to lower latitudes.”
Broader Weather Patterns
Beyond the tropics, Speta discussed broader weather patterns across East Asia, including cold air surging into Japan.
“Frigid air is pouring into Japan, bringing sea-effect snowfall to areas like Sapporo,” he said. “This cold air is also influencing the setup of the shear line and the northeast monsoon, which are contributing to the Philippines’ current weather conditions.”
Preparing for the Weeks Ahead
As December approaches, Speta emphasized the importance of staying informed and prepared, even if current forecasts show minimal risk of a significant storm.
“The key is to monitor updates and understand that conditions can change,” he advised. “Even with weaker systems, the combination of the ITCZ and amihan can bring heavy rain and localized flooding. Always prioritize safety.”