Carina/Gaemi: Impacts on Okinawa and the Philippines

Carina, also known as Gaemi internationally, continues to strengthen and is expected to become a dangerous typhoon nearing Japan and China, with heavy rainfall flowing in behind it in the Philippines. I’m meteorologist Robert Speta, and we have a lot to discuss today regarding the impacts of this storm, along with Butchoy, which is moving off towards the west. This article will break down the forecast, expected impacts, and safety measures for those in the affected regions.

Storm Overview and Forecast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects Carina/Gaemi to strengthen potentially up to a very strong typhoon, flirting with super typhoon status at 120 knots as it moves over Ishigaki and Miyakojima. Tropical storm-strength winds could extend as far out as Okinawa, affecting Naha, Kadena, and other areas, including military installations.

Guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Pagasa (Philippines), JTWC, and the Taiwan Meteorological Agency all agree that Carina/Gaemi will move north and west, staying offshore of the Philippines and Taiwan before potentially impacting the east coast of China around Shanghai. However, this does not mean that the Philippines will be spared, as the storm will enhance the southwest monsoon, known locally as Habagat, bringing significant rainfall to the west coast.

Impact on the Philippines

Rainfall and Flooding

The enhanced monsoonal flow from Carina will lead to continuous, heavy precipitation, especially along the west coast of Luzon. The ECMWF model predicts significant rainfall over the next five days, with areas like Vigan, Candon, and San Fernando possibly receiving up to 300mm or more. Ilocos Norte and Abra are also expected to experience heavy rainfall, potentially causing local rivers to swell and leading to flooding.

Region 1 will be heavily impacted, with forecasts indicating rainfall amounts ranging from 20 to 70mm starting Monday, increasing to over 50mm on Tuesday, and up to 80mm on Wednesday. Gusts could reach 40-50 km/h along the coast. Even though the center of the storm is expected to stay offshore, the inflow of moisture will still bring significant rainfall to northern Cagayan and other areas.

Enhanced Monsoonal Flow

As Carina moves north, it will tap into a river of moisture, leading to continuous precipitation for several days. This persistent rainfall, combined with already saturated ground, increases the risk of serious flooding along the west coast of the Philippines. Residents in these areas should prepare for heavy rainfall and potential flooding, ensuring they have necessary supplies and emergency plans in place.

Impact on Okinawa and Southern Japanese Islands

Wind and Rain

Carina/Gaemi is expected to pass over the southern Japanese islands, including Miyakojima and Ishigaki, with wind speeds of up to 140 km/h. While Okinawa may not experience the full brunt of the typhoon, gale-force conditions (40-50 km/h winds) and heavy rain are expected, particularly on the southern end of the island around Naha. This will result in dangerous conditions, especially with waves reaching six to seven meters high along the southern coast.

Military Precautions

For military personnel in Okinawa, it is crucial to heed warnings from JMA and the US military. Preparing for the arrival of the storm involves securing supplies early, ensuring emergency kits are ready, and being aware of evacuation routes if necessary. The worst of the weather is expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Typhoon Tracking and Model Guidance

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

The JTWC forecast shows Carina/Gaemi intensifying as it moves north, potentially reaching major typhoon status. The storm is expected to pass close to Ishigaki and Miyakojima, with significant impacts from strong winds and heavy rain.

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

The JMA forecast aligns with the JTWC, indicating that Carina/Gaemi will stay offshore of the Philippines and Taiwan, moving towards the southern Japanese islands. The inflow on the backside of the storm will still bring significant rainfall to the Philippines, particularly along the west coast.

ECMWF Model

The ECMWF model suggests that Carina/Gaemi will edge slightly west of the official track, bringing stronger impacts to Miyakojima and Ishigaki. It also highlights the potential for enhanced monsoonal flow to bring heavy rainfall to the Philippines, with significant totals expected over several days.

Preparing for the Storm

Philippines

Residents in the Philippines, especially along the west coast of Luzon, should prepare for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This includes securing necessary supplies, preparing emergency kits, and being aware of evacuation routes. Continuous updates from Pagasa and local authorities will provide the latest information on the storm’s impact and necessary precautions.

Okinawa and Southern Japanese Islands

For those in Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands, preparing for gale-force conditions and heavy rain is essential. This involves securing outdoor items, preparing emergency kits, and staying informed through updates from JMA and the US military. Avoiding coastal areas due to dangerous waves is also crucial.

FAQ

1. What is the current status of Carina/Gaemi?

Carina, also known as Gaemi internationally, is a strengthening tropical storm expected to reach typhoon status as it moves north towards the southern Japanese islands. It is currently enhancing the southwest monsoon in the Philippines, bringing significant rainfall to the west coast of Luzon.

2. What areas will be most affected by Carina/Gaemi?

The southern Japanese islands, including Miyakojima and Ishigaki, will experience the strongest winds and heaviest rain. In the Philippines, the west coast of Luzon, particularly Region 1, will see significant rainfall and potential flooding due to the enhanced monsoonal flow.

3. What precautions should residents in the Philippines take?

Residents in the affected areas should prepare for heavy rainfall and potential flooding by securing necessary supplies, preparing emergency kits, and being aware of evacuation routes. Continuous updates from Pagasa and local authorities will provide the latest information on the storm’s impact and necessary precautions.

4. How will Carina/Gaemi impact military installations in Okinawa?

Military installations in Okinawa should prepare for gale-force conditions and heavy rain. Personnel should follow official warnings from JMA and the US military, secure supplies early, and ensure emergency kits are ready. The worst of the weather is expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

5. How can I stay informed about the latest updates on Carina/Gaemi?

Stay informed by following updates from meteorological agencies such as JMA, Pagasa, JTWC, and local authorities. Social media and weather websites also provide continuous updates on the storm’s progress and impact.

Conclusion

Carina/Gaemi continues to strengthen and is expected to become a dangerous typhoon as it nears the southern Japanese islands and China. While it will stay offshore of the Philippines, the enhanced monsoonal flow will bring significant rainfall and potential flooding to the west coast of Luzon. Residents in the affected areas should prepare for heavy rainfall and take necessary precautions to ensure their safety. For those in Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands, preparing for gale-force conditions and heavy rain is essential. Stay informed through official updates and take all necessary precautions to stay safe during this storm.