Carina, known internationally as Gaemi, continues to strengthen and is expected to become a dangerous typhoon. It’s crucial to stay informed and prepared as this storm approaches the southern Japanese islands and impacts the Philippines.
Meteorologist Overview
I’m meteorologist Robert Speta, and today we have a lot to discuss, likely marking the most active tropical day of the 2024 typhoon season in the Western Pacific. Carina, also known as Gaemi in the Philippines, has officially been upgraded to a typhoon by both the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and PAGASA.
Typhoon Track and Strength
Carina is moving northward and, despite its distance from the Philippines, is expected to bring significant rainfall and flooding due to the inflow wrapping around its southern and western sides. This inflow has already caused heavy rains and flooding in parts of the Visayas, Mindanao, and western Luzon.
As Carina moves north, it is expected to strengthen further. The southern Japanese islands, particularly Ishigaki and Miyakojima, will bear the brunt of the storm with winds reaching up to 155 km/h. While Okinawa, including Naha and Kadena, will remain east of the storm’s center, rain bands and large waves are still anticipated.
Impacts on Okinawa and Taiwan
Okinawa
- Wind and Rain: Okinawa will experience rain bands and significant waves, though the most severe conditions will stay to the west. Winds of 40-50 km/h are expected, with higher gusts possible.
- Precautions: Secure outdoor items, stock emergency kits, and stay informed through JMA and US military updates.
Taiwan
- Heavy Rainfall: The mountains of Taiwan, particularly near Taipei, will enhance precipitation, leading to potential flooding on both the eastern and western sides.
- Wind: Damaging winds are possible, especially as the storm passes over northern Taiwan.
- Travel: New infrastructure on the east coast may mitigate some issues, but travel across the mountains is not advised during the storm.
Enhanced Monsoonal Flow in the Philippines
Despite Carina staying offshore, its effects will be felt deeply in the Philippines due to the enhanced monsoonal flow. The west coast of Luzon, particularly Region 1, is expected to see continuous rain over several days.
- Rainfall Totals: Areas such as Baguio, Pangasinan, and Manila could see rainfall totals of 300-500 mm. This persistent rain will lead to significant flooding risks.
- Precautions: Residents should clear drains, prepare for potential flooding, and stay informed through PAGASA advisories. Floodwaters can rise quickly and may carry hazards such as diseases and sharp objects.
Broader Impacts and Additional Storms
Northern Vietnam and Hainan
- Prapiroons Track: Prapiroon, also known as Butchoy in the Philippines, has made landfall in Hainan and is moving towards northern Vietnam. The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall to these regions.
- Rainfall: Coastal areas and cities like Hanoi could see significant rainfall, with totals reaching 50-100 mm before the storm dissipates over the mountains of the Indochina Peninsula.
Detailed Forecast and Guidance
Carina/Gaemi
- Southern Japanese Islands: The storm will impact Ishigaki and Miyakojima the most, with winds up to 155 km/h. Okinawa will experience rain bands and large waves.
- Taiwan: The mountains will enhance precipitation, leading to significant flooding risks on both sides of the island.
Philippines
- Enhanced Monsoon: Continuous rain for several days, with significant flooding risks in Region 1. Prepare for persistent rainfall and potential flooding.
- Safety Measures: Clear drains, prepare emergency kits, and stay informed through PAGASA advisories.
Conclusion
Typhoon Carina/Gaemi poses a significant threat to both the southern Japanese islands and the Philippines. While Okinawa will experience some impacts, the heaviest rain and winds will be felt in Ishigaki, Miyakojima, and northern Taiwan. In the Philippines, the enhanced monsoonal flow will bring continuous heavy rain and significant flooding risks.
Stay informed, prepare your homes and families, and follow official updates from JMA, PAGASA, and the US military. Your safety is the top priority as we navigate through this active typhoon season.
FAQs
1. What areas will Carina/Gaemi impact the most?
- The southern Japanese islands of Ishigaki and Miyakojima will see the strongest winds and rain. Okinawa will experience rain bands and large waves. In the Philippines, Region 1 will face continuous heavy rain and potential flooding.
2. How strong will Carina/Gaemi become?
- Carina/Gaemi is expected to strengthen to a strong typhoon, with winds reaching up to 155 km/h, particularly impacting Ishigaki and Miyakojima.
3. What precautions should residents in Okinawa take?
- Secure outdoor items, stock emergency kits, avoid coastal areas, and stay informed through JMA and US military updates.
4. How will the Philippines be affected despite the storm staying offshore?
- The enhanced monsoonal flow will bring continuous heavy rain, especially to Region 1, with rainfall totals reaching 300-500 mm, leading to significant flooding risks.
5. What should residents in affected areas do to prepare?
- Clear drains, prepare emergency kits, and stay informed through official updates. Be ready to evacuate if needed and avoid travel during the storm.
Stay safe, stay informed, and take all necessary precautions as Typhoon Carina/Gaemi approaches. For detailed updates, follow JMA, PAGASA, and US military advisories. We’re all in this together—let’s stay safe and weather the storm.