Tropical Storm Fung-Wong, locally known as Uwan, is strengthening as it tracks toward the Philippines, with forecasters warning it could reach super typhoon intensity before making landfall across northern Luzon early next week.
The system, still over the Philippine Sea, is showing strong signs of development with a large circulation, deep convection, and sustained inflow from the south. Favorable conditions — including warm sea surface temperatures and excellent upper-level outflow — are contributing to its rapid intensification.
Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and PAGASA call for maximum sustained winds of 170–180 kilometers per hour prior to landfall, likely near Casiguran, Aurora Province, late Sunday or early Monday.
“The storm’s overall structure is enormous,” said meteorologist Robert Speta. “Some people have noted it could cover much of the Philippines in cloud outflow. But the real concern is that tight core near landfall — that’s where the super typhoon winds will be.”
Even areas outside the forecast center track, including Catanduanes, the Bicol Region, and Metro Manila, could experience heavy rainfall and strong winds. Speta noted that models have a history of shifting slightly southward, which would increase risk for Bicol and southern Luzon.
“Even if the center doesn’t pass directly overhead, this is a wide storm,” Speta said. “Manila is well within the area for tropical-storm-force winds, and with westerly flow behind the system, we could even see a bit of storm surge in Manila Bay and Subic Bay.”
Rainfall totals are forecast to exceed 400–500 millimeters (16–20 inches) in mountain areas such as Baguio and Benguet, with 200–300 millimeters across the Sierra Madre and Cagayan Valley. That rainfall is expected to cause widespread river flooding across Luzon, even after the storm has moved west.
“Flooding is inevitable,” Speta said. “All that rain has to go somewhere, and it’s going to flow down the mountains into the rivers and coastal plains. Even after the center moves out, water levels will continue to rise.”
PAGASA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center both show high confidence in the westward track, driven by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. Once Fung-Wong crosses Luzon, it’s expected to weaken slightly before entering the South China Sea.