Gaemi / Carina strengthens in the Philippine Sea

By /

Tropical Storm Gaemi and Carina, and their expected impacts on various regions, including the Philippines, southern Japanese islands, and beyond. This article consolidates recent updates and forecasts to ensure our readers are well-informed and prepared for the upcoming weather challenges.

Overview of Current Storm Systems

Tropical Storm Gaemi (Carina in the Philippines)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Japan Meteorological Agency have named the third storm system of the 2024 season as Tropical Storm Gaemi. In the Philippines, this storm is known as Carina. It is crucial to note that this system is distinct from Butchoy, which is currently in the West Philippine Sea.

Storm Trajectories and Expected Impacts

Gaemi/Carina’s Path and Impact

Tropical Storm Gaemi is projected to track northward, with the potential to pass over the southern Japanese islands, such as Ishigaki and Miyako Jima, by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Current forecasts indicate that Gaemi could strengthen into a significant typhoon, bringing potentially damaging winds and heavy rainfall to these areas.

Residents of these islands, who are generally accustomed to typhoons, are advised to prepare adequately for this storm. Okinawa Honto, a region with a considerable US military presence, is also expected to experience gale-force conditions and rain bands from Gaemi. The exact impact will depend on the storm’s final path, so staying updated on the latest forecasts is essential.

Impact on the Philippines

The west coast of Luzon and parts of Palawan in the Philippines will not be spared from Gaemi’s effects. The heavy monsoonal inflow from Gaemi, coupled with the influence of Butchoy, is expected to bring substantial rainfall to these regions. Areas such as Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, and Subic Bay could see precipitation levels ranging from 300 to 500 millimeters, reminiscent of the 2012 Habagat event. These heavy rains pose a severe flooding risk, and residents are urged to prepare accordingly.

Detailed Forecast Analysis

Southern Japanese Islands

The southern Japanese islands, including Ishigaki and Miyako Jima, should brace for the possibility of Gaemi making landfall as a significant typhoon. Wind speeds could reach typhoon strength, causing potential structural damage and power outages. The islands’ residents are familiar with such storms, but it remains crucial to secure property and follow any evacuation orders issued by local authorities.

Okinawa Honto, known for its US military installations, is also in the projected path of Gaemi’s rain bands. Military personnel and residents should prepare for gale-force winds and possible flooding. The exact impact on Okinawa will depend on the storm’s path, which could shift east or west, altering the severity of conditions.

West Coast of Luzon and Palawan

The west coast of Luzon and Palawan will experience significant rainfall due to the combined effects of Gaemi and Butchoy. This heavy monsoonal inflow can lead to severe flooding, especially in low-lying areas and regions prone to landslides. The forecast suggests that some areas could receive up to 500 millimeters of rain, which could result in widespread flooding similar to the 2012 Habagat event.

Residents in Ilocos del Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, and Subic Bay should monitor weather updates closely and prepare for possible evacuation. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will issue updates and warnings as the situation evolves.

Preparation and Safety Measures

For Residents of Southern Japanese Islands

  • Secure Property: Ensure that all loose items around your property are secured or brought inside. High winds can turn objects into dangerous projectiles.
  • Stock Up on Essentials: Have enough food, water, and medical supplies to last at least a week. Power outages can disrupt supply chains.
  • Evacuation Plans: Know your local evacuation routes and shelters. Follow any evacuation orders from local authorities promptly.
  • Stay Informed: Keep updated with the latest forecasts from reliable sources such as the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and local news outlets.

For Residents of the West Coast of Luzon and Palawan

  • Flood Preparedness: Identify safe areas in your home and community that are less likely to flood. Have sandbags and other flood prevention materials ready.
  • Emergency Kit: Prepare an emergency kit with food, water, medications, and important documents. Ensure that all family members know where it is and how to use it.
  • Community Plans: Work with your community to develop a plan for communication and assistance in case of severe flooding.
  • Monitor Warnings: Keep an eye on PAGASA updates and warnings. Be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Understanding the Cone of Error

One common question during storm updates is about the “cone of error” in forecast models. This cone represents the probable path of the storm’s center but does not account for the storm’s full impact range. Tropical systems have far-reaching effects beyond their center, including rain bands and high winds that can affect areas outside the cone.

For Tropical Storm Gaemi, it’s crucial to consider not only its direct path but also the broader region that might experience heavy rainfall and strong winds. The Philippines, particularly the west coast of Luzon, will feel the storm’s impact through monsoonal inflow and associated heavy rains, even if the storm’s center remains offshore.

Historical Context and Comparisons

The expected rainfall and flooding from Gaemi and Butchoy draw comparisons to the 2012 Habagat event, which brought persistent and heavy rainfall to the Philippines. Understanding past events helps in preparing for future ones. In 2012, the monsoonal inflow caused severe flooding in several regions, leading to significant damage and displacement. Learning from this history, residents and authorities should take proactive measures to mitigate similar impacts this season.

Current Weather Models and Predictions

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS)

Both the ECMWF and GFS models are key tools in predicting the path and intensity of tropical storms. Current model outputs indicate that Gaemi will continue its northward track, potentially impacting the southern Japanese islands as a significant typhoon. These models help meteorologists provide accurate forecasts and issue timely warnings to affected regions.

Conclusion

As Tropical Storm Gaemi (Carina in the Philippines) progresses, it is vital for residents in its projected path to stay informed and prepared. Whether in the southern Japanese islands or the west coast of Luzon and Palawan, understanding the potential impacts and taking proactive measures can significantly reduce risks and ensure safety.

Stay updated with reliable sources such as PAGASA, JMA, and local news outlets. For more detailed information and continuous updates, visit westernpacificweather.com. Your support on platforms like YouTube and Facebook also helps us provide timely and accurate weather information.

Additional Resources

Stay safe and prepared, and thank you for relying on us for your weather updates.

Scroll to Top