We have an active weather pattern developing in the Western Pacific. We’re currently monitoring a tropical depression moving onshore into Vietnam, part of a larger monsoonal gyre. Additionally, there’s another low-pressure area (LPA) tracking across the Philippines, and yet another area of interest to the east, potentially impacting Okinawa in the long range. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what to expect.
Tropical Depression in Vietnam
The tropical depression that has moved onshore into Vietnam is part of a monsoonal gyre, a large-scale cyclonic circulation typical in the Western Pacific during the monsoon season. This system is a significant rainmaker, bringing heavy rainfall and potential flooding to the region. The broad circulation of the gyre means that moisture is being pulled from a wide area, enhancing rainfall intensity and duration.
Impact on the Philippines
In the Philippines, we have another low-pressure area tracking across the country. This system is already bringing heavy rainfall to northeastern Mindanao and eastern areas of Visayas. As the system progresses, precipitation is expected to spread across the Philippines, from Cebu to Manila. Rainfall totals could reach 100 to 300 millimeters in some areas, leading to potential flooding.
The interaction of this LPA with the southwest monsoon (locally known as Habagat) is crucial. The monsoon flow will enhance rainfall over southwestern Luzon, including the Bicol region and extending to the National Capital Region (NCR). These areas could see 50 to 150 millimeters of rain, enough to cause flooding.
Current Weather Analysis
Currently, we’re observing the primary LPA moving across Visayas, with a broad circulation bringing heavy rainfall. By mid-week, southeastern Luzon will experience the heaviest precipitation. This rain will move westward, combining with the monsoonal flow. By the end of the week, areas like Iloilo, western Mindoro, and eventually the NCR will see significant rainfall. Floodwaters could become a problem quickly, even without a full-blown typhoon.
Forecast and Guidance
Looking at the GFS and ECMWF models, we can see the progression of these weather systems. By Friday and Saturday, stronger winds from the south and west will increase rainfall risks on the west coast of Luzon. The low-pressure system will track westward, pulling in moisture and enhancing rainfall across the region.
In addition to the current systems, we’re monitoring another potential low-pressure area east of the Philippines. Long-range forecasts suggest that this system could impact Okinawa by mid-July, with the potential for a larger typhoon to develop.
Potential Rainfall and Flooding
Residents in the affected regions should prepare for significant rainfall. Localized totals could reach 100 to 300 millimeters, particularly in areas under the influence of both the LPA and the southwest monsoon. This amount of rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems and lead to severe flooding. It’s essential for residents to stay informed and heed any warnings or advisories from local authorities.
Safety and Preparedness Tips
Given the current and forecasted weather conditions, here are some important safety tips:
- Stay Informed: Regularly check updates from official weather sources. Follow the advice and warnings issued by local authorities.
- Prepare for Flooding: Clear drainage systems around your home. Use sandbags to protect property if you live in flood-prone areas.
- Emergency Kit: Have an emergency kit ready with essential supplies such as water, food, medications, and important documents.
- Evacuation Plan: Know your evacuation routes and have a plan in place in case you need to leave your home quickly.
- Avoid Floodwaters: Do not attempt to walk or drive through flooded areas. Floodwaters can be deeper and more dangerous than they appear.
Local Weather Outlook
Here’s a quick look at the local weather outlook for the next few days:
- Siargao: Scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday, with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms.
- Cebu: Continuous rainfall through Wednesday to Friday, tapering off by Saturday as the LPA moves north.
- Manila: Heaviest rainfall expected Friday and Saturday, with totals reaching up to 300 millimeters in some areas.
Conclusion
The Western Pacific is currently experiencing an active weather pattern, with significant rainfall expected across multiple regions. The tropical depression moving into Vietnam, combined with the LPA in the Philippines and the potential low to the east, creates a complex and dynamic weather scenario. Residents in the affected areas should stay vigilant, prepare for potential flooding, and follow official guidance.
As always, I’ll keep you updated with the latest information. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out. Stay safe, and keep an eye on the weather. For more detailed updates, visit our website and follow our social media channels. And if you appreciate these updates, consider supporting us on Patreon. Your support helps us continue to provide accurate and timely weather information.
Stay Safe
Remember, you don’t need a typhoon to experience severe weather impacts. Heavy rainfall and flooding can occur with these systems, so it’s crucial to stay prepared and informed. I’ll be back with more updates as the situation develops. Stay safe out there!