As of Sunday, September 15th, meteorologist Robert Speta provides a comprehensive weather update for the Western Pacific, emphasizing the significant developments with Typhoon Bebinca and other emerging systems. Bebinca, which has intensified into a typhoon after moving past the Southern Japanese islands, is a key topic. However, in this update, Speta shifts focus to the Philippines, where gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and potential storm development pose serious concerns for residents across various regions.
Growing Concerns Over Inflow and Monsoonal Gyre
Speta highlights the inflow associated with Bebinca, which is causing gusty conditions along the eastern coast of the Philippines. Areas such as Siargao, a popular destination for surfers, are experiencing strong winds and intermittent rainfall. While the rains are not continuous, gusty conditions have made it challenging for the locals and tourists alike. In particular, the inflow is bringing scattered rainfall to the Visayas region, resulting in reports of flooding in certain areas. This inflow is part of a larger monsoonal gyre supported by the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), which continues to impact weather patterns across the country.
Speta explains that the inflow from Bebinca is feeding into this monsoonal gyre, creating the potential for storm formation. He points to an area just off the coast of the Philippines where winds from the northwest are already becoming more pronounced, indicating a potential storm development zone. As the week progresses, this area will be closely monitored for possible tropical storm formation, which could bring increased rainfall to the country.
Impacts on Visayas and Palawan: What to Expect
The current inflow is affecting areas across Mindoro, Palawan, and the west coast of Visayas. Residents in Cebu, Tacloban, Bacolod, and other cities are advised to brace for scattered showers that are expected to persist throughout the week. Although the rains may not be continuous, the presence of Bebinca’s inflow ensures that these regions will experience intermittent downpours. Monday’s weather in Davao, for instance, is forecasted to be warm, but there will still be some scattered showers.
Tourism hotspots like Siargao may not see immediate relief from the windy conditions. While the rain may come and go, the wind has been a constant challenge for surfers and tourists. Other areas like Cagayan de Oro and regions across the Visayas will also continue to experience scattered rains and gusty winds. Speta notes that Cebu, Tacloban, and other cities on the west coast are already seeing heavier rainfall, with more to come as the system continues to move westward.
A New Storm System on the Horizon?
Speta shifts his focus to a potential new storm system developing off the east coast of the Philippines. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) guidance indicates that a secondary low is forming, which could eventually gain strength and be named by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). At the very least, this system could become a tropical depression, but Speta warns that even if it does not develop into a full-blown typhoon, it will still contribute to an already established “river of moisture,” feeding into the Philippines and increasing rainfall.
As this system moves northward, the rain bands associated with it will also lift northward, affecting regions from Visayas all the way to northwestern Luzon. By the end of the week, areas like Cagayan and Aurora, in northeastern Luzon, could see increased rainfall and gusty conditions. This potential storm development is expected to bring further complications, particularly for areas already saturated by rain and at risk of flooding.
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Key Areas to Watch
One of the main concerns Speta emphasizes is the continued inflow of moisture, which could lead to flooding across parts of the Philippines. The ECMWF model shows a significant accumulation of rainfall, particularly in areas like Mindoro, Palawan, and Visayas. In some places, rainfall could exceed 300 millimeters, raising the risk of flooding and landslides. Speta cautions residents not to underestimate the potential for flash floods, particularly in low-lying areas and regions already experiencing heavy rainfall.
Northeastern Luzon, including Cagayan and Isabela, may also face significant impacts as moisture continues to flow into the region. The Sierra Madre mountain range could experience intense rainfall, potentially causing landslides and flash floods. Speta explains that the setup is similar to previous storms, where the presence of a high-pressure ridge over northern Luzon forced storm systems to move northward, potentially affecting areas from Cagayan to Aparri and even as far north as Taiwan.
Weather Forecast for Manila and Higher Elevations
Manila, while not expected to experience the heaviest rainfall, will still see intermittent showers throughout the week. By mid-week, the rain is forecasted to intensify, with gusty winds and heavier downpours expected by Wednesday and Thursday. For residents in the capital city, the rain may be inconvenient, but Speta reassures that the worst of the weather will likely stay further south and west.
In higher elevation areas like Baguio, however, the situation may become more severe. By mid-week, Speta expects heavy rains to hit the region, with the potential for flooding and landslides. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are forecasted to be the most critical days, as moisture-laden winds move in from the west and bring increased rainfall to the area.
Impacts on Guam and Surrounding Areas
Meanwhile, Guam and the surrounding regions are also experiencing wet conditions due to an area of low pressure. However, Speta notes that the situation will gradually improve by Tuesday and Wednesday as the monsoonal gyre begins to lift and move westward. While sailors and those at sea will still face challenging conditions, the weather is expected to improve as the week progresses.
Wrapping Up and Preparing for the Week Ahead
As the week unfolds, Speta encourages residents across the Philippines to stay vigilant. While Bebinca is moving westward and away from the country, the inflow associated with the typhoon, coupled with a potential new storm system, means that heavy rains and gusty winds will persist throughout the week. Areas in Visayas, Mindoro, Palawan, and northern Luzon should prepare for the possibility of flooding, especially as moisture continues to feed into the region.