We’re monitoring two primary systems: a low-pressure area moving across the Philippines and a tropical depression off the coast of Vietnam. Both systems are bringing heavy rainfall and have already caused flooding and landslides in affected regions.
Tropical Depression Near Vietnam
The tropical depression near Vietnam has been particularly impactful, causing severe rainfall and even landslides in parts of Vietnam. The Vietnam Meteorological Agency predicts that this system will make landfall near Da Nang. However, the primary concern is not just the landfall location but the system’s expansive nature. This tropical depression is a classic monsoonal gyre, characterized by a large, doughnut-shaped low-pressure area. This structure spreads out the storm’s energy, resulting in widespread rainfall across the region.
Impacts on the Philippines
Meanwhile, a tropical trough in the Philippine Sea is contributing to the heavy rainfall over the Philippines. Areas from Cebu to Mindanao have been experiencing significant flooding over the past few days. The combination of these systems is creating a broad swath of precipitation, stretching across the Indochina Peninsula, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
The good news, if there is any, is that the energy from these systems is spread out, making it difficult for the storms to consolidate into more intense, organized systems. The low-level center of the tropical depression near Vietnam is relatively exposed, and the monsoonal gyre structure helps to increase wind shear over the Philippines. This interaction acts like a vacuum, drawing in the smaller low-pressure area to the east.
Rainfall and Flooding Risks
As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, these low-pressure areas will continue to track westward. While the secondary low-pressure area may not tighten up significantly, it will still bring substantial rainfall to the region. Rainfall totals are expected to reach 100 to 200 millimeters in southern Visayas and northern Mindanao. Parts of Cambodia, southern Vietnam, Laos, and northern Thailand could see over 300 millimeters of precipitation. These amounts pose a significant flood threat, with the potential for landslides as well.
Detailed Forecast and Safety Tips
Looking more closely at the forecast, the low-pressure area will move onshore over Samar and southern Luzon, bringing instability and potentially stronger storms. Floodwaters can rise rapidly, posing dangers such as disease and sharp objects hidden beneath the water’s surface. It’s crucial to take these threats seriously, even if the storm does not reach typhoon status.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded the area off Vietnam to a tropical depression, highlighting the primary threat of flooding. Additionally, we are watching the long-range forecast, which includes the possibility of another system developing south of Guam. This third system could potentially become a typhoon, given its more isolated location and favorable conditions for development, such as low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.
Local Area Forecasts
For those in the Philippines, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. In northeastern Mindanao, temperatures will stay in the high twenties with frequent rainfall. Cebu will remain hot, with temperatures in the lower thirties and less rainfall. Manila will see afternoon thunderstorms, with rainfall picking up mid to late week as the low-pressure area moves through.
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Conclusion
That’s all for today’s update. We’ll continue to monitor these systems closely and provide updates as needed. Remember, even if these storms don’t reach typhoon status, the associated rainfall and flooding can have severe impacts. Stay informed, stay safe, and take necessary precautions to protect yourself and your property.
Thank you for watching, and as always, stay safe out there.
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