Super Typhoon Pepito, internationally named Man-yi, has been wreaking havoc across the Philippines, leaving a trail of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surges. The typhoon made its first landfall over Catanduanes and is now barreling toward Aurora Province in Central Luzon, where it is expected to make its next landfall today. As it continues its west-northwestward track, authorities and residents are bracing for significant impacts, including flooding, landslides, and storm surge.
Here’s everything you need to know about Pepito’s path, intensity, and the precautions necessary to stay safe during this dangerous weather event.
Current Status and Track
Pepito, a potent typhoon with sustained winds of 195 km/h and a central pressure of 920 hPa, underwent an eyewall replacement cycle during its passage over Catanduanes. This process caused a slight weakening, but it also expanded its wind field, increasing its potential for widespread impacts.
Forecast Path
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Pepito is expected to:
- Move generally west-northwestward over the waters north of the Camarines Provinces and east of Quezon this morning.
- Pass close to or over the Polillo Islands by late morning.
- Make landfall over northern Quezon or central/southern Aurora between noon and afternoon today.
- Cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon, traversing the Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central mountain ranges this afternoon and evening.
- Emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union late tonight or early tomorrow (November 18).
Beyond the Philippines
After moving over the West Philippine Sea, Pepito is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning or afternoon. Once outside PAR, the system may shift westward or west-southwestward due to an incoming northeasterly wind surge.
Key Impacts
1. Heavy Rainfall
Pepito’s circulation is vast, and its rainfall isn’t confined to the landfall area.
- Central and Northern Luzon: Rainfall totals are expected to reach 300-400 mm in areas along its path, particularly in Aurora, Quirino, Pangasinan, Benguet, and La Union.
- Metro Manila: While the National Capital Region (NCR) is forecast to experience only tropical storm-strength winds, rainfall and rising river levels are significant concerns.
- Cagayan Valley: Even without direct heavy rainfall, water levels in the Cagayan River and other major rivers could rise due to upstream precipitation.
2. Damaging Winds
Typhoon-force winds will affect areas under Signal No. 3 or higher. These winds can cause structural damage, uproot trees, and disrupt power lines.
- Aurora Province: Expected to bear the brunt of the storm during landfall.
- Baler and Casiguran: Winds exceeding 150 km/h could lead to widespread damage.
3. Storm Surge
Coastal areas, particularly along the eastern seaboard of Luzon, are at risk of storm surges.
- Expected Surge Levels: 3 to 5 meters in low-lying coastal regions.
- Pangasinan Bay: Potential surge threats due to strong winds pushing water inland.
4. Flooding and Landslides
Flooding is a major concern in flood-prone and low-lying areas such as Pangasinan, La Union, and the mountain ranges of Central and Northern Luzon. Landslides are likely in steep terrains like the Cordillera Central.
Timeline of Events
Sunday Morning:
- Pepito skirts the Polillo Islands, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to the area.
- Residents in low-lying areas are advised to monitor flood warnings.
Noon to Afternoon:
- Landfall in Aurora Province, with the eye potentially crossing Baler or Casiguran.
- Strong winds and intense rainfall hit regions in Central and Northern Luzon, including Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, and Benguet.
Evening:
- Pepito crosses Luzon, weakening over mountainous terrain but still packing typhoon-strength winds.
- Rainfall continues, exacerbating river levels and flooding risks downstream.
Monday Morning:
- The storm exits into the West Philippine Sea, but residual rainfall continues to affect the region.
- River levels in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces may rise due to accumulated upstream water.
Safety Measures
1. Evacuation
Local authorities are urging residents in high-risk areas to evacuate, particularly those in:
- Coastal communities prone to storm surges.
- Low-lying flood-prone regions.
- Areas near rivers and dams, especially Magat Dam and the Cagayan River.
2. Preparation
- Secure loose outdoor items to prevent them from becoming dangerous projectiles.
- Stock up on emergency supplies, including food, water, flashlights, and first-aid kits.
3. Stay Informed
- Follow updates from official agencies like PAGASA and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
- Monitor local news for evacuation orders and safety advisories.
4. After the Storm
- Avoid wading in floodwaters, which may be contaminated or hide hazards like sharp objects and live wires.
- Report fallen power lines and other hazards to local authorities immediately.
Looking Ahead
The good news is that Pepito is expected to weaken significantly as it interacts with Luzon’s mountainous terrain and encounters cooler, drier air over the West Philippine Sea. By early next week, the region can look forward to improving conditions:
- Monday Evening: Drier weather across Luzon, with rainfall diminishing.
- Tuesday to Wednesday: Sunshine and cooler temperatures prevail as Pepito exits PAR and tropical activity settles temporarily.
Conclusion
Super Typhoon Pepito is a reminder of the devastating power of nature, but also of the resilience and preparedness of the Filipino people. As the storm moves across Luzon, it’s crucial to heed warnings, stay informed, and take necessary precautions.
The impacts of this typhoon will be felt beyond its landfall point, affecting millions across Central and Northern Luzon. By working together and following safety protocols, we can mitigate the risks and ensure the safety of all.
Stay safe, and stay vigilant. For the latest updates, follow PAGASA, Western Pacific Weather, and other trusted sources.