Current Weather Dynamics
We begin with the upper-level low, which is creating additional instability in the region. This low, combined with a small tropical wave, is moving westward and will collide with the prevailing southwest monsoon. This combination is causing scattered showers across a significant portion of Luzon. While not all areas will be affected equally, with the southern parts likely remaining drier, the instability can lead to localized stronger thunderstorms and minor vortices due to the collision of different air masses.
Daily Weather Forecast
For Monday evening, expect scattered showers across Luzon, potentially continuing into Tuesday. These showers will be more concentrated in certain areas, including Manila, where temperatures will reach a high of 32°C. Sunrise is at 5:32 AM, and sunset is at 6:30 PM.
In a non-meteorological but exciting event, the International Space Station (ISS) will be visible for a total of seven minutes on Monday evening. Look towards the southwest at around 7:32 PM, where it will appear about ten degrees above the horizon, and follow its path towards the northeast. The ISS will look like a fast-moving plane without lights, so don’t mistake it for a UFO!
Broader Weather Picture
Zooming out, we still have the easterlies affecting the region, bringing warm, moist air from the Pacific. Additionally, there’s a long-range forecast to consider. East-southeast of Guam, near Chuuk, an area of convection is developing. Long-range ensemble models suggest this system could move towards our area around July 12-13, potentially passing over the Philippines and moving into the West Philippine Sea. By mid-July, some models indicate the formation of a tropical system on both the west and east coasts of the Philippines. This prediction aligns with the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) outlook, which has anticipated development in this region for some time.
Potential Tropical Development
While we don’t want a significant tropical system, some regions desperately need the rainfall it could bring. The balance between beneficial rain and the risks of a tropical storm is always delicate. As we keep an eye on this potential development, it’s essential to remain prepared for any weather changes.
Seasonal Weather Patterns
Currently, the rainy season front is dominating across eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and northern Japan. South of this front, record heat continues to affect the region. Several locations in Japan have reported their highest single-day temperatures, though not the highest ever recorded in the country. This heatwave extends into parts of China, driven by the northward-moving rainy season front and record-breaking sea surface temperatures off the coast, which modify the air and push the heat upwards.
Local and Regional Impacts
The collision of the southwest monsoon with the tropical wave and upper-level low is expected to bring varying weather conditions across the region. Areas further south in the Philippines might remain relatively dry, while central and northern areas will experience more frequent and intense showers. The increased instability could lead to localized thunderstorms and minor vortices, impacting daily activities and potentially causing minor disruptions.
As the tropical wave progresses westward, it’s crucial to monitor its interaction with the southwest monsoon. This interaction can lead to significant weather changes, including enhanced rainfall and potential flooding in vulnerable areas. Staying informed about the latest weather updates and being prepared for sudden changes is key to ensuring safety during this period.
International Space Station Flyover
Aside from weather-related events, don’t miss the opportunity to view the International Space Station (ISS) as it flies over the region. The ISS will be visible for an extended duration of seven minutes, starting at 7:32 PM on Monday evening. This event provides a fascinating chance to witness a remarkable piece of human engineering in space. Remember to look towards the southwest, approximately ten degrees above the horizon, and follow its trajectory towards the northeast.
Support and Community Engagement
A heartfelt thank you to all our supporters on Patreon. Your contributions make it possible to continue providing accurate and timely weather updates. Despite the relatively quiet tropical season so far, your support has remained consistent and is greatly appreciated. If you have any suggestions or specific weather topics you’d like to see covered, please let us know in the comments.
Final Thoughts
As we move forward, we’ll keep a close watch on the potential tropical developments and the broader weather patterns affecting the region. While no forecast is 100% certain, staying informed and prepared is our best defense against the unpredictable nature of tropical weather. Continue to monitor updates and heed any weather advisories issued by local authorities.
Thank you for tuning in to this tropical weather update. Stay safe and keep an eye on the sky for both weather changes and the International Space Station flyover tonight!