A broad, slow-moving tropical depression just outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is bringing widespread rain to parts of the Philippines and is expected to continue strengthening as it tracks toward southern China in the coming days.
The unnamed system—designated 92W by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)—has not been named locally by PAGASA, as it formed beyond the geographic line that determines whether a system falls within the country’s jurisdiction. Nonetheless, it is producing heavy rains, gusty winds, and flooding threats across western and southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Palawan.
“We’ve been watching this system for over a week,” said meteorologist Robert Speta. “It’s messy, broad, and not tightly organized—but it doesn’t need to be named to be dangerous.”
A Monsoonal Setup
The storm is best described as part of a monsoonal gyre—a large-scale, sprawling circulation pattern that draws in deep tropical moisture from the southwest. While the low-level center remains somewhat lopsided and under wind shear, the gyre is functioning effectively to enhance southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions over the Philippines.
Satellite imagery shows widespread convection across the South China Sea, with bands of rain wrapping around the circulation center and extending toward Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and even the Philippines’ west coast.
This setup is expected to continue through Thursday, bringing persistent rainfall to Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and parts of the Visayas. In some mountain and coastal regions, rainfall totals may reach 200 to 300 millimeters, increasing the threat of landslides and flash floods.
Regional Forecast Highlights
Philippines:
- Metro Manila and Western Luzon: Scattered to widespread rain through Thursday; localized flooding possible.
- Palawan and Visayas: Moderate to heavy rain, especially in western sections.
- Improvement Expected by Friday: As the system lifts northward, drier air may filter in by the weekend.
China and Southeast Asia:
- Southern China (Hainan, Guangdong, and Hong Kong): Models show the system tracking northwest, with increasing rainfall by Friday into Saturday. Gusty winds and tropical storm conditions are possible, especially in coastal zones.
- Taiwan’s Southeast Coast: Could see heavy rain as the system curves northward and moisture wraps around the western edge of the high-pressure ridge.
“Hong Kong is in the right-front quadrant of the projected path, which means tropical storm-force winds and storm warnings are likely there,” said Speta. “Ferry service and outdoor activity may be severely disrupted late this week.”
What Will It Be Named?
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which oversees naming for storms in the Western Pacific, has already classified the system as a tropical depression. Should it reach tropical storm strength, it will be named Wutip, the first named storm of the 2025 Western Pacific season.
Meanwhile, PAGASA has referred to the system as a depression in bulletins, but it will not be given a local name like “Oring” since it formed outside PAR.
Why It Matters—Even Without a Name
Tropical systems don’t need to be named to pose serious threats. Monsoonal gyres in particular tend to be slow-moving and moisture-rich, often bringing multi-day flooding episodes over broad areas.
“This isn’t a clean, classic typhoon,” Speta explained. “It’s messy, but it’s pumping water into the region like a firehose. And for people on the ground, that’s what matters most.”
With sea surface temperatures in the West Philippine Sea running 1–2°C above average, there’s ample fuel for continued development. However, the system remains embedded in moderate shear and is being steered by a stubborn high-pressure ridge parked over the open Pacific.
Models suggest it will move steadily northwestward, then curve slightly northeastward as it skirts the edge of the ridge—possibly brushing southern China or even Taiwan before dissipating inland.
Possible Rainfall Totals
- Philippines (through Friday):
- Manila: 100–150 mm
- Zambales, Pangasinan: 150–300 mm
- Palawan: 80–120 mm
- China (Friday–Sunday):
- Hainan and Guangdong: 200–350 mm
- Hong Kong: 150–250 mm
- Southeast Taiwan: 100+ mm
These estimates vary based on terrain and exact storm track but highlight the flood potential across a wide swath of East and Southeast Asia.
No Major Follow-Up Systems Expected—for Now
The broader West Pacific remains relatively quiet in terms of additional cyclone development. A weak upper-level low off the east coast of Luzon remains disorganized, and current guidance shows no significant tropical cyclogenesis behind 92W.
Still, with the monsoon in full swing and sea temperatures warming, new systems may begin to emerge later in June.
Bottom Line
Even without a name, the current tropical depression is bringing significant weather impacts to the Philippines and the broader region. Residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas are urged to remain vigilant, especially through Thursday, when rainfall will be at its peak.
The good news? Most of the Philippines can expect improving conditions by the weekend, with drier air taking hold from Friday into Sunday.
As always, stay tuned to local authorities and reliable weather sources for the latest updates.
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Robert Speta is a meteorologist and typhoon specialist with Western Pacific Weather. Follow him on social media for real-time analysis and updates.