A powerful storm is brewing in the Philippine Sea. Typhoon Marce, known internationally as Yinxing, has intensified just off the eastern coast of the Philippines, with northeastern Luzon under alert for potentially severe impacts. Authorities are issuing warnings, and residents of Cagayan, Isabela, and the Batanes Islands are preparing as Typhoon Marce is forecasted to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves, with landfall possible later in the week.
Meteorologist Robert Speta highlights the unique path of Typhoon Marce/Yinxing, emphasizing the scientific conditions influencing its behavior. As he explains, the typhoon is forecasted to move westward toward Luzon, but a complex combination of weather patterns could affect its speed and trajectory, making it challenging to pinpoint an exact track and potential impact zones. With other weather agencies like Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, Hong Kong Observatory, and Japan Meteorological Agency monitoring the storm, there’s a consensus that the cold front from northeastern Asia will play a crucial role in the typhoon’s progression.
Expected Path and Intensity
Typhoon Marce/Yinxing is currently heading west toward Luzon, expected to impact areas as early as Wednesday or Thursday. The storm’s forward movement is projected to slow down when it encounters a cold front from the north, creating a stall that could affect its timing and intensity. According to Speta, forecast models show variations: the GFS model predicts a slightly faster and more westward track, potentially skirting Luzon’s northern coast, while the ECMWF model suggests a slower, more northward movement that could delay the typhoon’s approach to the Philippines.
A major factor in Typhoon Marce’s intensity is the temperature of the sea surface. Although sea temperatures are generally warmer this season, which can fuel storm intensification, the waters off Luzon are cooler than usual due to recent typhoons like Kong-rey and Leone, which stirred up deeper, colder water. This “upwelling” may reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification, though the storm still has ample energy sources to maintain significant strength.
Impacts on Northern Luzon
As Typhoon Marce/Yinxing nears Luzon, northeastern coastal areas, including Cagayan, Isabela, and the Batanes Islands, are bracing for severe weather. Even if the storm does not make direct landfall, strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected across a wide swath of northern Luzon.
1. Strong Winds:
Once Marce/Yinxing nears the coast, residents in the northeast will likely experience sustained winds of up to 150 kph or higher, especially in areas closest to the storm’s center. The wind direction will change depending on the storm’s position, with initial winds coming from the east, intensifying as they wrap around the Sierra Madre mountains, and impacting regions on Luzon’s western coast, such as Ilocos Norte. Coastal areas, especially the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, are expected to experience the strongest winds due to their exposure to the storm’s right-front quadrant, which brings the highest winds.
2. Heavy Rain and Flood Risk:
Northern Luzon, particularly the mountainous regions like the Sierra Madre, will face heavy rainfall that could accumulate up to 300 millimeters by the storm’s passage. This level of rain raises the risk of flash flooding and landslides, which could be further complicated if the storm stalls due to the incoming cold front. The Cagayan Valley, a vulnerable low-lying region, could see localized flooding as rivers and streams swell from continuous rainfall. Rain bands are expected to wrap around Luzon’s northeast, impacting areas beyond the immediate coastal zones.
3. Dangerous Sea Conditions:
Marine conditions around northern Luzon will deteriorate as Typhoon Marce approaches. Gale-force winds will churn up high waves across the Luzon Strait, the East China Sea, and the Philippine Sea, creating hazardous conditions for all vessels. Authorities advise residents and fishermen to avoid these waters until the storm passes. Travelers should also expect potential flight disruptions due to turbulence and high winds in affected areas.
The Role of the Cold Surge
Typhoon Marce/Yinxing’s behavior is unusual, and the approaching cold surge from northeastern Asia is a key factor. This surge will bring dry, cool air and increased wind shear, which may disrupt the storm’s forward momentum and cause it to stall temporarily. This stalling effect, known as a “blocking high,” occurs when a high-pressure ridge prevents the storm from advancing as usual, effectively trapping it in place until it weakens or shifts direction.
Speta points out that if the typhoon stalls or shifts northward, it may weaken, offering some relief to Luzon. However, even without a direct landfall, the cold surge could enhance the storm’s wind field, causing widespread gusty conditions across northern Luzon and neighboring islands.
Comparison to Previous Storms
In a season marked by multiple powerful typhoons, Marce/Yinxing stands out not only for its strength but also for its track. Unlike recent typhoons that followed a more typical westward path through the Philippine Sea, Marce’s northwestern trajectory brings it close to areas that are still recovering from recent storms. This storm is expected to affect regions that have faced typhoons before, including the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, whose residents are accustomed to frequent tropical cyclones but may still face disruptions.
The cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures off Luzon, caused by upwelling from previous typhoons, are an unusual but positive factor that could reduce the storm’s intensification potential. However, Marce still poses a significant risk, with its north-heavy structure likely to cause prolonged rain and wind impacts across Luzon’s northern regions.
What to Expect and How to Prepare
With potential impacts spanning from gale-force winds to flood risks, residents in affected areas are advised to take the following precautions:
- Monitor Updates: Stay informed through reliable sources like PAGASA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and other regional weather agencies.
- Prepare for Power Outages: Secure outdoor items and prepare emergency kits as strong winds and downed trees may lead to power interruptions in rural areas, especially in the mountainous regions.
- Avoid Coastal and Marine Activities: Mariners and coastal communities should refrain from activities near the coast until conditions stabilize. Fishermen should secure their boats, and residents in coastal areas should stay alert for potential storm surges.
- Evacuation Plans: Ensure that evacuation routes are known and accessible, especially in flood-prone areas. Families in high-risk zones should prepare for possible temporary relocation if conditions worsen.
Looking Ahead
After Typhoon Marce/Yinxing, meteorologists are keeping an eye on other developing systems in the western Pacific. While early indications show some potential for additional storms near Guam, model discrepancies mean forecasts are uncertain at this stage. For now, the focus remains on Marce/Yinxing and its path toward Luzon, which will bring a fresh round of severe weather to the region.
As the week progresses, forecasts will continue to evolve based on the typhoon’s interactions with the cold surge. For the latest updates, follow regional weather authorities and prepare for any eventuality.
Typhoon Marce/Yinxing underscores the importance of early preparation and awareness. While it is too early to determine the full extent of its impact, residents in northern Luzon should be prepared for several days of hazardous conditions as the storm nears.