The potential for tropical development east of the Philippines remains uncertain as various weather models present conflicting forecasts for early May.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has consistently projected the development of a strong typhoon off the Philippine east coast around May 4. However, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other models such as ICON and the Canadian CMC model show either a weak low or little development at all.
The area in question, now designated as INVEST 99W, is located near Palau and Yap within the Intertropical Convergence Zone. While it is tapping into some tropical moisture, satellite imagery does not yet show a well-defined low-level circulation. At this stage, the system remains either a very weak low-pressure area (LPA) or disorganized convection.
Should 99W move across the Philippines, it would likely bring much-needed rainfall to parts of the Visayas and Luzon but would limit time for intensification. If it lingers east of the country over warm waters, however, a stronger tropical cyclone could form.
Ensemble model outputs — sometimes called “SpaghettiOs” — further illustrate the uncertainty. GFS ensembles cluster east of the Philippines, suggesting a possible typhoon. Meanwhile, ECMWF ensembles show stronger development west of the Philippines after crossing land, while the CMC suggests a weak system forming to the west.
At this time, no official storm warning has been issued. Forecasters emphasize that although models hint at possible development, nothing is confirmed without a well-defined low-level circulation. Residents are urged to monitor official updates from PAGASA, avoid misinformation circulating on social media, and ensure their evacuation kits are ready as we move deeper into the typhoon season.